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kenolkobil returns to profit in Q1 2013
the deal
#61 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 2:27:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
To say Segmen & co messed up on the following items in FY 12 is an understatement

1. Inventory-stocking up inventory at crazy prices.

2. Hedges-taking huge positions when a currency is at all time lows & failure to put in stop loss mechanisms.

Conclusions: Segemen & Co just speculated & gambled.

Holding of inventory should be driven by demand not speculation on prices

Hedges should be accompanied by stop loss mechanisms...not huge losses.

Segmen at the AGM talked of hedge losses on a KenGen contract...read hedge losses again...thats what prompted them to stop hedging at all.

H1 2013 will be weak...the AGM dampened my expectations on the counter but FY 13 could be shored up by asset sales. Overall my confidence in Segmen is waning.
Kausha
#62 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 2:41:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
look i won't discuss how they lost money in the hedging but I know how. It was nothing deliberate but a situation they thought made sense at the time they got into to address even bigger losses from contracts in place. If you undestand how industrial oil and avgas contracts are priced you will see it.

What I am saying is after making the losses what were the key lessons. KK appears to have learnt this lessons and thus avoidance of these contracts as they are low margin can easily burn you.
Cde Monomotapa
#63 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 4:09:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
With the sort of volatily in crude prices it is a very welcome move to quit hedging. Kudos @KK
Cde Monomotapa
#64 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 4:11:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
With the sort of volatily in crude prices it is a very welcome move to quit hedging. Kudos @KK

If Chief @hisah could supply us with a Brent chart? Thank you.
mkeiyd
#65 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 5:24:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
Let's cut Segman some slack. The guy was dealing with two volatile variables,crude oil prices and the usd. From 1997,there has never been such madness in the forex and when shit hit the fan,nobody knew when at what level it was going to stop. Rates of 120 bob to the usd were forecasted here on wazua. In the craze of that moment,hedging was a wise thing.
But in retrospect, we are all geniuses. Don't we have all the facts on the table?
Who can say what we gonna have first and when, 86.5 bob to the usd or 84 bob?
A definate response and i take Segman as one big joke.
VituVingiSana
#66 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 8:21:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
With the sort of volatily in crude prices it is a very welcome move to quit hedging. Kudos @KK

If Chief @hisah could supply us with a Brent chart? Thank you.
It was not the crude hedges that hurt as much as forex hedges. The 82 - 107 -84 within 3 months caused a lot of pain. Then the high interest rates.

According to KK, there are 60 OMCs in Kenya with most being briefcase dealers. Some of these are going to go bust as KK (via David Ohana) has taken control of the Allocation Committee for ullage. It was the misuse of ullage by 'connected briefcases' that hurt many OMCs like KK & Total when it came to discharging cargoes.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#67 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 8:29:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
With the sort of volatily in crude prices it is a very welcome move to quit hedging. Kudos @KK

If Chief @hisah could supply us with a Brent chart? Thank you.
It was not the crude hedges that hurt as much as forex hedges. The 82 - 107 -84 within 3 months caused a lot of pain. Then the high interest rates.

According to KK, there are 60 OMCs in Kenya with most being briefcase dealers. Some of these are going to go bust as KK (via David Ohana) has taken control of the Allocation Committee for ullage. It was the misuse of ullage by 'connected briefcases' that hurt many OMCs like KK & Total when it came to discharging cargoes.

Alright. That's even better. Personally, I don't mind MoM dealing. Let's see.
VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 8:40:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
With the sort of volatily in crude prices it is a very welcome move to quit hedging. Kudos @KK

If Chief @hisah could supply us with a Brent chart? Thank you.
It was not the crude hedges that hurt as much as forex hedges. The 82 - 107 -84 within 3 months caused a lot of pain. Then the high interest rates.

According to KK, there are 60 OMCs in Kenya with most being briefcase dealers. Some of these are going to go bust as KK (via David Ohana) has taken control of the Allocation Committee for ullage. It was the misuse of ullage by 'connected briefcases' that hurt many OMCs like KK & Total when it came to discharging cargoes.

Alright. That's even better. Personally, although could be disruptive, I don't mind MoM dealing. Let's see.

At the AGM, KK (aka Segman d'oh! ) admitted they had open (speculative) forex hedges and were long stocks (they thought fuel prices in KES would rise). Wham. Double wham. Shs 9bn (or more) wham. They also lost money on hedges for fuel supplies to KenGen & contracts for aviation.

@cde What's MoM dealing?

Hedges are out for now BUT they will enter into them in the future to cover products NOT to speculate.

They will reduce (not quit) the aviation business which has low margins.

Reduction of stocks [loss taken in 2012] to reduce debt.

Reduction of debt [sale of stocks & assets] to reduce debt.

The search for a 'Strategic Partner' continues. Even Puma may be back.

They have looked inside their souls Pray and decided to change how they do business. Cut the fat they knew was accumulating but hadn't looked at. Cut back on unprofitable 'lines of business' as well as sell off excess properties. Expand high(er) margin businesses.

Expansion of storage facilities continues unabated in most countries including Uganda, DRC, Burundi, etc. The

The serious shareholders asked serious questions AFTER the official AGM was closed & those coming for lunch ran away! The Transaction Advisor (Kestrel) explained it was not KK that was up for sale but the shares of the key shareholders. Why did the talks collapse? It was about 'value' i.e. the 'key shareholders' did not find the price offered attractive. The price was not provided by Kestrel citing confidentiality.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#69 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 9:21:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
With the sort of volatily in crude prices it is a very welcome move to quit hedging. Kudos @KK

If Chief @hisah could supply us with a Brent chart? Thank you.
It was not the crude hedges that hurt as much as forex hedges. The 82 - 107 -84 within 3 months caused a lot of pain. Then the high interest rates.

According to KK, there are 60 OMCs in Kenya with most being briefcase dealers. Some of these are going to go bust as KK (via David Ohana) has taken control of the Allocation Committee for ullage. It was the misuse of ullage by 'connected briefcases' that hurt many OMCs like KK & Total when it came to discharging cargoes.

Alright. That's even better. Personally, although could be disruptive, I don't mind MoM dealing. Let's see.

At the AGM, KK (aka Segman d'oh! ) admitted they had open (speculative) forex hedges and were long stocks (they thought fuel prices in KES would rise). Wham. Double wham. Shs 9bn (or more) wham. They also lost money on hedges for fuel supplies to KenGen & contracts for aviation.

@cde What's MoM dealing?

Hedges are out for now BUT they will enter into them in the future to cover products NOT to speculate.

They will reduce (not quit) the aviation business which has low margins.

Reduction of stocks [loss taken in 2012] to reduce debt.

Reduction of debt [sale of stocks & assets] to reduce debt.

The search for a 'Strategic Partner' continues. Even Puma may be back.

They have looked inside their souls Pray and decided to change how they do business. Cut the fat they knew was accumulating but hadn't looked at. Cut back on unprofitable 'lines of business' as well as sell off excess properties. Expand high(er) margin businesses.

Expansion of storage facilities continues unabated in most countries including Uganda, DRC, Burundi, etc. The

The serious shareholders asked serious questions AFTER the official AGM was closed & those coming for lunch ran away! The Transaction Advisor (Kestrel) explained it was not KK that was up for sale but the shares of the key shareholders. Why did the talks collapse? It was about 'value' i.e. the 'key shareholders' did not find the price offered attractive. The price was not provided by Kestrel citing confidentiality.


Ouch! Those hedges really unleashed some nasty sting. The sooner they bail out from that hedging trap the better. They lost and a bank gained. Which bank Think

Big volume cycles at 9/- but Kestrel cites confidetiality smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee1
#70 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 9:30:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
why mark to market a hedge? makes no sense
dunkang
#71 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 9:40:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
I find this KK story HILARIOUS, for lack of a better word. They quit the aviation sector becoz of little profit yet they made LOSES everywhere else. They sjould just say they have sold their only 'little profitable' bizna to Total (K) so as to punguza madeni elsewhere.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Cde Monomotapa
#72 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 9:58:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
MoM is Month on Month, thus, if Crude is $100/b & USD/KES @85 this month, then that's what we will Buy to Sell keeping margins in check not betting what they'll be several months ahead. #KISS# Plus, all non-core/profitable elements being shed is great as it is only in crisis is where strengths & weaknesses truly come out. Hence, may KK emerge stronger & better ( till the next crisis smile ) <end of submissions>
Cde Monomotapa
#73 Posted : Monday, June 03, 2013 10:52:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
MoM is Month on Month, thus, if Crude is $100/b & USD/KES @85 this month, then that's what we will Buy to Sell keeping margins in check not betting what they'll be several months ahead. #KISS# Plus, all non-core/profitable elements being shed is great as it is only in crisis where strengths & weaknesses truly come out. Hence, may KK emerge stronger & better ( till the next crisis smile ) <end of submissions>

NB: This (spot) model will need a strong, able & reliable financial partner. Say...the likes of KCB Group smile
VituVingiSana
#74 Posted : Tuesday, June 04, 2013 12:01:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
MoM is Month on Month, thus, if Crude is $100/b & USD/KES @85 this month, then that's what we will Buy to Sell keeping margins in check not betting what they'll be several months ahead. #KISS# Plus, all non-core/profitable elements being shed is great as it is only in crisis is where strengths & weaknesses truly come out. Hence, may KK emerge stronger & better ( till the next crisis smile ) <end of submissions>

NB: This (spot) model will need a strong, able & reliable financial partner. Say...the likes of KCB Group smile
They have many banks as 'partners' so they should be OK even without the need for a specific bank like KCB. Which bank sold them the hedges is what I would have liked to know!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
FUNKY
#75 Posted : Wednesday, June 05, 2013 10:44:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
VituVingiSana
#76 Posted : Thursday, June 06, 2013 1:31:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
KenolKobil sues Kenya refinery for Sh3.1bn

Excellent news ;-)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#77 Posted : Thursday, June 06, 2013 6:41:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
KenolKobil sues Kenya refinery for Sh3.1bn

Excellent news ;-)


More litigation making it more & more undesirable as a takeover target! Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mlennyma
#78 Posted : Thursday, June 06, 2013 8:37:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,184
Location: nairobi
A company that lives in the courts,who can buy except gava?.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
dunkang
#79 Posted : Thursday, June 06, 2013 8:49:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
VituVingiSana wrote:
KenolKobil sues Kenya refinery for Sh3.1bn

Excellent news ;-)

SMH.
@VVS, what has gotten in to your head nowadays. You have truely fallen in love with KK shares. Very dangerous brother, very dangerous. Chunga usiwe maskini sababu ya mapenzi.

You don't the GoK and live happily ever after. And there is no guarantee that the court will agree on the 'loss of business'.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Cde Monomotapa
#80 Posted : Thursday, June 06, 2013 8:58:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mlennyma wrote:
A company that lives in the courts,who can buy except gava?.

Nagging the potential suitor smile
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