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Coop Bank - Stocksmaster's 1st Play 2013
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youcan'tstopusnow
#101 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 10:15:11 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
mibbz wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mibbz wrote:
.....do you know africa oil is starting drilling in Kenya and has a whooping 44 blocks in the region......the best is yet to come

They started some years back and they do not have 44 blocks as you say.
I side with guru. It would be very surprising, to me, were AKFED to part with their stake. They have a nice diversified portfolio which I imagine they would be keen to maintain - banking, tourism, media, etc.



They are starting the 1st of 2 sites this half, really big difference between owning and start of drilling in Kenya


Haya basi.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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mibbz
#102 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 10:21:17 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mibbz wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mibbz wrote:
.....do you know africa oil is starting drilling in Kenya and has a whooping 44 blocks in the region......the best is yet to come

They started some years back and they do not have 44 blocks as you say.
I side with guru. It would be very surprising, to me, were AKFED to part with their stake. They have a nice diversified portfolio which I imagine they would be keen to maintain - banking, tourism, media, etc.



They are starting the 1st of 2 sites this half, really big difference between owning and start of drilling in Kenya


Haya basi.


Its actually in the Laisamis region....anyway whats your ideal takeover price for NIC bank?
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jerry
#103 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 11:05:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Takeover or take-off price?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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mibbz
#104 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 2:05:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
jerry wrote:
Takeover or take-off price?


In other words, the ideal buy out price for NIC just like access kenyas 14
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guru267
#105 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 11:05:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mibbz wrote:
jerry wrote:
Takeover or take-off price?


In other words, the ideal buy out price for NIC just like access kenyas 14


The best price in tightly owned companies is 50times earnings...

So in NICs case we're talking 5*50...

Around 250bob!!

I have taken into consideration that Somens will reject the 14bob AK offer...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, May 19, 2013 11:07 PM | Reason: Not specified
stocksmaster
#106 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2013 4:25:34 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
The recent cabinet appointments have brought in two former bank CEOs making it unlikely for radical cabinet policy decisions that may rock the banking sector.

The Executive is also heavily invested in banking and would not create an unfavorable environment for banks. These highlights the banking sector as one of the sectors to watch at least for the next 5 years.

The following Banking stocks are worth a closer focus:

1. COOP BANK

EPS of Ksh 0.62 for Q1 2013 was a 33.5% rise as compared to Q1 2013 and a 29.2% rise as compared to Q4 2012. This was the highest growth in EPS for the Tier 1 banks that have so far reported.

Its merits as I indicated in post no.1 of this thread support my BUY recommendation on this share.

The share is also trading cum dividend (Dividend of Ksh 0.50) until 23rd of May. It will be interesting to see whether the share can touch the Ksh 18 price before books close next week Thursday.

In the next 3 months and as the Tier 1 banks trailing P/E approaches 11; the share price for Coop Bank should approach the Ksh 20 price especially if the half year earnings are as positive as the Q1 results.

My price target (next 10 months) is a price of Ksh 28.00 (65% upside potential) based on an estimated EPS of Ksh 2.70 for year ending December 2013 (The Q1 2013 EPS OF Ksh 0.62 supports my revised estimated EPS of 2.70 for the full year).

2. EQUITY BANK

The EPS of Ksh 0.87 for Q1 2013 was a 21.9% y/y increase.
The banks’ loan book is expected to rise over the remaining part of the year based on more stable macroeconomic conditions.

The bank has a ROE of 29.5% against a sector average of 26.3% (KCB ROE is 23%)
My price target for Equity Bank over the next 12 months is Ksh 48 (EPS of Ksh 4, at a P/E of 12).

3. CFC STANBIC BANK

Despite the poor ROE of 11%, it is currently trading at a P/E of 7.90 (if you factor in the rights issue shares).

It is a share that am holding purely as a short term speculative play awaiting the Q1 2013 results which if they mirror that of the other tier 1 banks, may easily push the share price to the Ksh 70 levels.

Short term Exit Price: Ksh 70

Happy Hunting.


CFC has wonderfully surprised........a 12 months target price of Ksh 100 is in order based on a 2013 EPS of about Ksh 11 and a P/E of about 9.

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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jerry
#107 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2013 5:19:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
guru267 wrote:
mibbz wrote:
jerry wrote:
Takeover or take-off price?


In other words, the ideal buy out price for NIC just like access kenyas 14


The best price in tightly owned companies is 50times earnings...

So in NICs case we're talking 5*50...

Around 250bob!!

I have taken into consideration that Somens will reject the 14bob AK offer...

As a Somen I would also reject 14/= although I'm not sure how much influence they have.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, May 21, 2013 5:24 PM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#108 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2013 6:18:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,220
Location: nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
The recent cabinet appointments have brought in two former bank CEOs making it unlikely for radical cabinet policy decisions that may rock the banking sector.

The Executive is also heavily invested in banking and would not create an unfavorable environment for banks. These highlights the banking sector as one of the sectors to watch at least for the next 5 years.

The following Banking stocks are worth a closer focus:

1. COOP BANK

EPS of Ksh 0.62 for Q1 2013 was a 33.5% rise as compared to Q1 2013 and a 29.2% rise as compared to Q4 2012. This was the highest growth in EPS for the Tier 1 banks that have so far reported.

Its merits as I indicated in post no.1 of this thread support my BUY recommendation on this share.

The share is also trading cum dividend (Dividend of Ksh 0.50) until 23rd of May. It will be interesting to see whether the share can touch the Ksh 18 price before books close next week Thursday.

In the next 3 months and as the Tier 1 banks trailing P/E approaches 11; the share price for Coop Bank should approach the Ksh 20 price especially if the half year earnings are as positive as the Q1 results.

My price target (next 10 months) is a price of Ksh 28.00 (65% upside potential) based on an estimated EPS of Ksh 2.70 for year ending December 2013 (The Q1 2013 EPS OF Ksh 0.62 supports my revised estimated EPS of 2.70 for the full year).

2. EQUITY BANK

The EPS of Ksh 0.87 for Q1 2013 was a 21.9% y/y increase.
The banks’ loan book is expected to rise over the remaining part of the year based on more stable macroeconomic conditions.

The bank has a ROE of 29.5% against a sector average of 26.3% (KCB ROE is 23%)
My price target for Equity Bank over the next 12 months is Ksh 48 (EPS of Ksh 4, at a P/E of 12).

3. CFC STANBIC BANK

Despite the poor ROE of 11%, it is currently trading at a P/E of 7.90 (if you factor in the rights issue shares).

It is a share that am holding purely as a short term speculative play awaiting the Q1 2013 results which if they mirror that of the other tier 1 banks, may easily push the share price to the Ksh 70 levels.

Short term Exit Price: Ksh 70

Happy Hunting.


CFC has wonderfully surprised........a 12 months target price of Ksh 100 is in order based on a 2013 EPS of about Ksh 11 and a P/E of about 9.

Happy Hunting.

@stocksmaster when arriving at your target price, you simply multiply projected EPS by P/E? how solid is this method of pricing..

KQ ABP 4.26
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guru267
#109 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2013 8:52:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
@stocksmaster when arriving at your target price, you simply multiply projected EPS by P/E? how solid is this method of pricing..


Its one of the best tools especially for long term investors...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Realtreaty
#110 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2013 9:25:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,386
Both the Cooperative and Equity bank depend on the lower masses for business. Equity IPO was @70 Kes while Co-op ws at 9 Kes. Equity has expanded almost to 900% while Co-op has touched 100%. The wonder is how did the Equity do it that Co-op has not done? Will it ever hit the 50+ Kes? When?
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