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Coop Bank - Stocksmaster's 1st Play 2013
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obiero
#81 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:51:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,220
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
obiero wrote:
please note I hold both KCB and COOP in my portfolio..


@obiero if you wish to diversify... it may be better to keep off companies with similar risk factors! IMHO

@267. i hold many of my positions in stocks seasonally, so as to re-invest into payment for real estate which is my true love

KQ ABP 4.26
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mwekez@ji
#82 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 9:00:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
stocksmaster wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@stocksmaster, calling for you comment on the Q1 2013 results released today


Will post my analysis on the Coop share (and other banking stocks of interest)tomorrow.

Happy Hunting.


smile ... Waiting
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stocksmaster
#83 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 6:03:44 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
The recent cabinet appointments have brought in two former bank CEOs making it unlikely for radical cabinet policy decisions that may rock the banking sector.

The Executive is also heavily invested in banking and would not create an unfavorable environment for banks. These highlights the banking sector as one of the sectors to watch at least for the next 5 years.

The following Banking stocks are worth a closer focus:

1. COOP BANK

EPS of Ksh 0.62 for Q1 2013 was a 33.5% rise as compared to Q1 2013 and a 29.2% rise as compared to Q4 2012. This was the highest growth in EPS for the Tier 1 banks that have so far reported.

Its merits as I indicated in post no.1 of this thread support my BUY recommendation on this share.

The share is also trading cum dividend (Dividend of Ksh 0.50) until 23rd of May. It will be interesting to see whether the share can touch the Ksh 18 price before books close next week Thursday.

In the next 3 months and as the Tier 1 banks trailing P/E approaches 11; the share price for Coop Bank should approach the Ksh 20 price especially if the half year earnings are as positive as the Q1 results.

My price target (next 10 months) is a price of Ksh 28.00 (65% upside potential) based on an estimated EPS of Ksh 2.70 for year ending December 2013 (The Q1 2013 EPS OF Ksh 0.62 supports my revised estimated EPS of 2.70 for the full year).

2. EQUITY BANK

The EPS of Ksh 0.87 for Q1 2013 was a 21.9% y/y increase.
The banks’ loan book is expected to rise over the remaining part of the year based on more stable macroeconomic conditions.

The bank has a ROE of 29.5% against a sector average of 26.3% (KCB ROE is 23%)
My price target for Equity Bank over the next 12 months is Ksh 48 (EPS of Ksh 4, at a P/E of 12).

3. CFC STANBIC BANK

Despite the poor ROE of 11%, it is currently trading at a P/E of 7.90 (if you factor in the rights issue shares).

It is a share that am holding purely as a short term speculative play awaiting the Q1 2013 results which if they mirror that of the other tier 1 banks, may easily push the share price to the Ksh 70 levels.

Short term Exit Price: Ksh 70

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, May 17, 2013 6:05 PM | Reason: Not specified
patrazi
#84 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 7:40:11 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 7/18/2012
Posts: 76
Great!
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mibbz
#85 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 10:38:02 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Cfc Q1 made approx 1.1Bil, slightly off their internal target (cannot remember the figure) but have a positive outlook going ahead.I bank with them and hold the stock; asked the number at my local branch
As for co-op am a believer, tend to think the price shall rise towards H1 results
Lastly what do you think about diamond trust bank? Been gathering info on it and it looks like a ripe takeover target by a larger panafrican bank, or am I being too ambitious? Can agakhan sell out?
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guru267
#86 Posted : Saturday, May 18, 2013 8:04:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mibbz wrote:
Lastly what do you think about diamond trust bank?Been gathering info on it and it looks like a ripe takeover target by a larger panafrican bank, or am I being too ambitious? Can agakhan sell out?


@mibbz agakhan is going nowhere!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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cnn
#87 Posted : Saturday, May 18, 2013 10:25:02 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
stocksmaster wrote:
The recent cabinet appointments have brought in two former bank CEOs making it unlikely for radical cabinet policy decisions that may rock the banking sector.

The Executive is also heavily invested in banking and would not create an unfavorable environment for banks. These highlights the banking sector as one of the sectors to watch at least for the next 5 years.

The following Banking stocks are worth a closer focus:

1. COOP BANK

EPS of Ksh 0.62 for Q1 2013 was a 33.5% rise as compared to Q1 2013 and a 29.2% rise as compared to Q4 2012. This was the highest growth in EPS for the Tier 1 banks that have so far reported.

Its merits as I indicated in post no.1 of this thread support my BUY recommendation on this share.

The share is also trading cum dividend (Dividend of Ksh 0.50) until 23rd of May. It will be interesting to see whether the share can touch the Ksh 18 price before books close next week Thursday.

In the next 3 months and as the Tier 1 banks trailing P/E approaches 11; the share price for Coop Bank should approach the Ksh 20 price especially if the half year earnings are as positive as the Q1 results.

My price target (next 10 months) is a price of Ksh 28.00 (65% upside potential) based on an estimated EPS of Ksh 2.70 for year ending December 2013 (The Q1 2013 EPS OF Ksh 0.62 supports my revised estimated EPS of 2.70 for the full year).

2. EQUITY BANK

The EPS of Ksh 0.87 for Q1 2013 was a 21.9% y/y increase.
The banks’ loan book is expected to rise over the remaining part of the year based on more stable macroeconomic conditions.

The bank has a ROE of 29.5% against a sector average of 26.3% (KCB ROE is 23%)
My price target for Equity Bank over the next 12 months is Ksh 48 (EPS of Ksh 4, at a P/E of 12).

3. CFC STANBIC BANK

Despite the poor ROE of 11%, it is currently trading at a P/E of 7.90 (if you factor in the rights issue shares).

It is a share that am holding purely as a short term speculative play awaiting the Q1 2013 results which if they mirror that of the other tier 1 banks, may easily push the share price to the Ksh 70 levels.

Short term Exit Price: Ksh 70

Happy Hunting.

@stocksmaster..HFCK and KCB do not tickle you?
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the deal
#88 Posted : Saturday, May 18, 2013 11:03:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
On Coop Bank--->Q1 2013 bond losses not a good sign.

CFC--->will rock and will defenitely go beyond KES70.

Equity Bank & KCB--->Fully valued. Limited upside from current prices.

HF--->more upside.

In the banking sector at current prices...my picks are HF, CFC and DTB
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, May 18, 2013 11:05 AM | Reason: Not specified
mwekez@ji
#89 Posted : Saturday, May 18, 2013 11:29:45 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
stocksmaster wrote:
The recent cabinet appointments have brought in two former bank CEOs making it unlikely for radical cabinet policy decisions that may rock the banking sector.

The Executive is also heavily invested in banking and would not create an unfavorable environment for banks. These highlights the banking sector as one of the sectors to watch at least for the next 5 years.

The following Banking stocks are worth a closer focus:

1. COOP BANK

EPS of Ksh 0.62 for Q1 2013 was a 33.5% rise as compared to Q1 2013 and a 29.2% rise as compared to Q4 2012. This was the highest growth in EPS for the Tier 1 banks that have so far reported.

Its merits as I indicated in post no.1 of this thread support my BUY recommendation on this share.

The share is also trading cum dividend (Dividend of Ksh 0.50) until 23rd of May. It will be interesting to see whether the share can touch the Ksh 18 price before books close next week Thursday.

In the next 3 months and as the Tier 1 banks trailing P/E approaches 11; the share price for Coop Bank should approach the Ksh 20 price especially if the half year earnings are as positive as the Q1 results.

My price target (next 10 months) is a price of Ksh 28.00 (65% upside potential) based on an estimated EPS of Ksh 2.70 for year ending December 2013 (The Q1 2013 EPS OF Ksh 0.62 supports my revised estimated EPS of 2.70 for the full year).

2. EQUITY BANK

The EPS of Ksh 0.87 for Q1 2013 was a 21.9% y/y increase.
The banks’ loan book is expected to rise over the remaining part of the year based on more stable macroeconomic conditions.

The bank has a ROE of 29.5% against a sector average of 26.3% (KCB ROE is 23%)
My price target for Equity Bank over the next 12 months is Ksh 48 (EPS of Ksh 4, at a P/E of 12).

3. CFC STANBIC BANK

Despite the poor ROE of 11%, it is currently trading at a P/E of 7.90 (if you factor in the rights issue shares).

It is a share that am holding purely as a short term speculative play awaiting the Q1 2013 results which if they mirror that of the other tier 1 banks, may easily push the share price to the Ksh 70 levels.

Short term Exit Price: Ksh 70

Happy Hunting.


I cant agree more. .... i however notice you have avoided our Tier II banks
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mibbz
#90 Posted : Saturday, May 18, 2013 12:31:02 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
guru267 wrote:
mibbz wrote:
Lastly what do you think about diamond trust bank?Been gathering info on it and it looks like a ripe takeover target by a larger panafrican bank, or am I being too ambitious? Can agakhan sell out?


@mibbz agakhan is going nowhere!


Allow me to ask, what percentage does aga khan hold in DTB?....I forsee a smooth takeover by one of the west african banks looking for presence in the east african side.hydrocarbon game shall see the giants flexing their muscle....
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