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Co-operative Bank Q1 2013 results
mwanahisa
#1 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 10:32:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Stronger than I expected.

PBT up from 2.467 B to 3.227 B

PAT up from 1.96 B to 2.6 B.

On the other hand Comprehensive income took a knock from 3.68B to 1.6 B. Seems like their bond play got thoroughly whacked.
jerry
#2 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 10:45:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Overal score: B
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 11:36:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
Stronger than I expected.

PBT up from 2.467 B to 3.227 B

PAT up from 1.96 B to 2.6 B.

On the other hand Comprehensive income took a knock from 3.68B to 1.6 B. Seems like their bond play got thoroughly whacked.

On a Q on Q basis, the loss on Bonds is 1bn for 1Q 2013. Not great but if the trend for Bonds (yield dropping) has been positive in 2Q, they can recover the loss. On the other hand these are paper losses i.e. they can get back the full principal as the Bonds mature. The key question is what is the yield on these bonds? No point earning 8% on bonds if Coop is paying 8% on deposits!

On the other hand, if these are short-term bonds then they can just wait till they mature without much ado.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
selah
#4 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 11:41:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Is this the first Bank to factor in Losses from Bond trading....or are these the losses they hid in the last Q of 2011 when most banks cooked their books in 2012 to hide the losses after CBR went to historical highs.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
MoneyMonger
#5 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 2:44:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/25/2012
Posts: 110
Good performance, though they need to watch that shrinking loan book and the 20% surge in NPLs. Anyone with the full report?
There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 2:55:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
MoneyMonger wrote:
Good performance, though they need to watch that shrinking loan book and the 20% surge in NPLs. Anyone with the full report?
1Q 2013 wasn't a time to lend [using historical pre-election data] & many banks reduced lending in 1Q 2013. Many firms slow down imports/purchases, start banking sales proceeds from holiday sales, focus on stock-taking, etc during 1Q 2013 thus need fewer loans...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
MoneyMonger
#7 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 3:19:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/25/2012
Posts: 110
VituVingiSana wrote:
MoneyMonger wrote:
Good performance, though they need to watch that shrinking loan book and the 20% surge in NPLs. Anyone with the full report?
1Q 2013 wasn't a time to lend [using historical pre-election data] & many banks reduced lending in 1Q 2013. Many firms slow down imports/purchases, start banking sales proceeds from holiday sales, focus on stock-taking, etc during 1Q 2013 thus need fewer loans...


I wonder then how Equity managed to lend more in the quarter compared to the same quarter last year. I understand lending was expected to slow and indeed KCB lent a billion less in 2013Q1 vs. 2012Q1. To what extent could the drop be due to strategy (inability to attract loan interest) than pure prevailing election mood.
There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 3:47:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
MoneyMonger wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MoneyMonger wrote:
Good performance, though they need to watch that shrinking loan book and the 20% surge in NPLs. Anyone with the full report?
1Q 2013 wasn't a time to lend [using historical pre-election data] & many banks reduced lending in 1Q 2013. Many firms slow down imports/purchases, start banking sales proceeds from holiday sales, focus on stock-taking, etc during 1Q 2013 thus need fewer loans...


I wonder then how Equity managed to lend more in the quarter compared to the same quarter last year. I understand lending was expected to slow and indeed KCB lent a billion less in 2013Q1 vs. 2012Q1. To what extent could the drop be due to strategy (inability to attract loan interest) than pure prevailing election mood.
Equity to their credit works on a different beat. They expanded when others (BBK & SCBK) shed branches. They lent to individuals at the bottom of the pyramid when others kicked them out, etc!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Realtreaty
#9 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 9:00:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,297
But what actually prevents this stock from moving up to 30s, 40s, like its peers the KCB, Equity, Barclays and standardChart? Will it break the golden 20 Kes this time again?
mwekez@ji
#10 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 9:20:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Income statement performance; A
Balance sheet performance; C
Overall performance; B >>> This counter has attractive valuation
mwekez@ji
#11 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 10:03:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
Stronger than I expected.

PBT up from 2.467 B to 3.227 B

PAT up from 1.96 B to 2.6 B.

On the other hand Comprehensive income took a knock from 3.68B to 1.6 B. Seems like their bond play got thoroughly whacked.

On a Q on Q basis, the loss on Bonds is 1bn for 1Q 2013. Not great but if the trend for Bonds (yield dropping) has been positive in 2Q, they can recover the loss. On the other hand these are paper losses i.e. they can get back the full principal as the Bonds mature. The key question is what is the yield on these bonds? No point earning 8% on bonds if Coop is paying 8% on deposits!

On the other hand, if these are short-term bonds then they can just wait till they mature without much ado.


#Word @VVS. ... &a bright note is that coop Q1-2013 cost of funds is a low 3.6% while its Q1-2013 yield on interest earning assets is 15.4%. That gives us NIM (Net Interest Margin) of 11.8% (15.4%-3.6%) ... :)
mwekez@ji
#12 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 10:09:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
Income statement performance; A
Balance sheet performance; C
Overall performance; B >>> This counter has attractive valuation


with @jerry in post 2 ;)

jerry in post 2 wrote:
Overal score: B

guru267
#13 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 10:37:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
This one will bag you 10times your money in 10 years...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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