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Securities Investment Opportunities
wilyum
#1 Posted : Monday, May 06, 2013 10:22:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/21/2011
Posts: 1,010
The opportunities for investment are as follows:-

Long term

I. NBK - New valuation Kes. 30 per share

Though the bank did not perform well in their 2012, the new CEO from Standard Chartered has already put in place a strategy to expand to various counties to tap the new resources available as a result of county devolution, the aggressive plan also includes restructuring staff to have a bigger business development team as opposed to operations, all this with a view of putting costs down and getting more efficient. NBK also has a strong backing from their principal clientele the government whose book is expected to stretch to accommodate the county governments.

II. Kengen -Valuation Kes. 20 per share

This counter is at a high but is yet to hit the valuation of Kes. 20 per share based on its monopoly on power generation, raising further capital through their infrastructure bond as opposed to a rights issues that would have adversely affected an already undervalued counter, great half year results and an expected smooth CEO transition. So far, the counter has also got positive feedback from the bond holders of the infrastructure bond on addition of capital.

Middle term

III. HFCK - New valuation Kes. 30 per share

The new valuation is pegged on exemplary first quarter results. Fundamentally, Housing Finance have the biggest market share of the local mortgage industry which stands at 28.3% . The company’s CAGR on its mortgage book over the last 5 years stands at 29.5% .Their 1st quarter results were impressive with a 21% increase in loans and advances and a 46% increase in profit despite the uncertainty surrounding the pre- election period. Factoring in the prevailing lower interest rates, this growth is expected to increase.

IV. NMG -Valuation Kes 334

This counter is a buy because of the sterling performance seen in 2012, maintaining their post bonus price level at Kes. 285 per share. Management has an aggressive expansion strategy put forth in 2012, which will see it solidify its regional presence in Uganda and Tanzania. We also expect this to significantly increase their top line in 2013.


V. NIC -New valuation Kes. 60

This counter is pegged as a buy due to good first quarter results in 2013 as compared to the same period in 2012. We have seen an increase in the double percentile on their loans and advances and profits which is backed by their strong niche in asset finan cing, regional expansion and efficient management. This has seen the share trade at the current price levels ex rights and ex bonus and we expect the trend to continue.

VI. DTK - New valuation Kes. 170

This counter is expected to go to levels of Kes. 170 in the middle term due to the steps taken by management to solidify and grow their market share in the east African regional market. We expect good 1st quarter results from the company backed by asset financing.

Speculative

· KCB -The books closure for the bank’s Kes. 1.90 per share dividend is on 13th May 2013, so the counter is a buy since apart from the 4%

dividend yield, we could get a 5% return in terms of capital gains when we buy at levels of Kes. 41.50 to Kes. 42 per share. managers The expected appreciation in price levels would be due to good 1st quarter results and the return of fund managers to the market. Fund managers generally are big investors who prefer investing into counters that have good liquidity like KCB and Equity due to ease in and out of the market.
wilyum
#2 Posted : Monday, May 06, 2013 10:23:57 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/21/2011
Posts: 1,010
from genghis, your thots?
maka
#3 Posted : Monday, May 06, 2013 1:18:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
wilyum wrote:
from genghis, your thots?

stopped reading rather taking heed of what this analysts say they break all manner of best practice(s) when coming up with such info...
possunt quia posse videntur
youcan'tstopusnow
#4 Posted : Monday, May 06, 2013 1:19:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
HF books closure is on 17th May. Will a 3% yield be enough to push it to 30 in the short term?. What does driver Aguytring think?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwekez@ji
#5 Posted : Monday, May 06, 2013 2:18:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
HF books closure is on 17th May. Will a 3% yield be enough to push it to 30 in the short term?. What does driver Aguytring think?


... the counter definitely has headroom. ... looking forward, there is an interim dividend and another final dividend for the dividend lovers
mwekez@ji
#6 Posted : Monday, May 06, 2013 2:20:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
wilyum wrote:

I. NBK - New valuation Kes. 30 per share

Though the bank did not perform well in their 2012, the new CEO from Standard Chartered has already put in place a strategy to expand to various counties to tap the new resources available as a result of county devolution, the aggressive plan also includes restructuring staff to have a bigger business development team as opposed to operations, all this with a view of putting costs down and getting more efficient. NBK also has a strong backing from their principal clientele the government whose book is expected to stretch to accommodate the county governments.


What valuation metric did they use to arrive at that price? Could you be having the comprehensive report on this?
wilyum
#7 Posted : Monday, May 06, 2013 2:32:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/21/2011
Posts: 1,010
@mwekezaji, no comprehensive report,just that mail
mwekez@ji
#8 Posted : Monday, May 06, 2013 3:08:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
wilyum wrote:
@mwekezaji, no comprehensive report,just that mail

have they ever done a comprehensive report on this nbk like what they did on kengen
mwekez@ji
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 07, 2013 1:51:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
I fail to understand how a research department goes to issue a LONG TERM BUY RECOMMENDATION and does not give a comprehensive report on it #Lazy_Research_Department¿!¿
Aguytrying
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 07, 2013 4:27:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
HF books closure is on 17th May. Will a 3% yield be enough to push it to 30 in the short term?. What does driver Aguytring think?

@you. watu wa HFCK wanajulikana.smile . The dividend is not enough for 30.00 now, in my view. unless the whole market rallies-like i see it wants to.
Think of the div as @mwekezaji says. 1.4. coz if one buys now, u get full year div and interim 2-3 months later.
By end year hivi, 30 should be within range. today i saw signs of 27.00 opening up
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#11 Posted : Tuesday, May 07, 2013 4:29:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mwekez@ji wrote:
I fail to understand how a research department goes to issue a LONG TERM BUY RECOMMENDATION and does not give a comprehensive report on it #Lazy_Research_Department¿!¿


This "research" is #annoying. All those counters save for NBK,KENGEN, HFK are overvalued. An investment bank/broker cant go giving such half baked advise like this. The reasoning on KCB is laughable
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
youcan'tstopusnow
#12 Posted : Tuesday, May 07, 2013 6:37:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Aguytrying wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
HF books closure is on 17th May. Will a 3% yield be enough to push it to 30 in the short term?. What does driver Aguytring think?

@you. watu wa HFCK wanajulikana.smile . The dividend is not enough for 30.00 now, in my view. unless the whole market rallies-like i see it wants to.
Think of the div as @mwekezaji says. 1.4. coz if one buys now, u get full year div and interim 2-3 months later.
By end year hivi, 30 should be within range. today i saw signs of 27.00 opening up


Yeah, saw signs of life too. NSE 20 up 35 points.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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