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Bargains to buy from tomorrow???
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:@VVS are they any bargains to be had that you can see with experienced eyes?
I've had a hard time picking out companies since January. Maybe instead of forcing issues i should divert some of the cash to bonds as Graham recommends in such times. I am keeping my powder dry for KK at 10 or lower. I wish they would release the 2012 results. We know they are bad. Just how bad? And I don't mind some panic selling on KK. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Aguytrying/ wrote:
TOTAL- Undervalued, having a bad year this year. things should turn around next year. Hidden potential due to oil find. buying target. 12.00-14.00.
KENOL- Still up for sale, a buyer will come. If not. Top management, so a turn around will come through in due time. Hope i can get at 9.00
TPSE- Undervalued on a P/B basis. P/B around 0.9. This years profits may not be as good as last years. However form here on out i expect it to maintain the growth trajectory in profits it has been accumulating since 2007. Buying Target 45-55.
NBK- I expect a turnaround this year. purely Speculative though. Buying target 18.50. if she goes, let her go
Most of the good chips have been taken away from the floor. These are the ones I've identified. LETS GO.
some of my picks already doing well. managed to buy total below 14.00 now I'm 20% up at 17. target is 30 next year. kenol touched 9 very briefly and I didnt get any as I was waiting for 7. re adjusting buying price on that one now. tpse has not moved still in buying range and I am still buying. NBK. I stayed out due to high prices. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser. TPSE now at 52, the bargain persists, something good may happen to you here. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser.
@Aguytrying Williamson will most likely disappoint on earnings due to the strong shilling... The historical earnings show poor performance when shilling is strong and vice versa! Another thing is that heavy rainfall is not exactly the best environment for good tea yields... For consistent earnings over next 5 years stick to financials! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser.
@Aguytrying Williamson will most likely disappoint on earnings due to the strong shilling... The historical earnings show poor performance when shilling is strong and vice versa! Another thing is that heavy rainfall is not exactly the best environment for good tea yields... For consistent earnings over next 5 years stick to financials! Where does your confidence in financials come from?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser.
@Aguytrying Williamson will most likely disappoint on earnings due to the strong shilling... The historical earnings show poor performance when shilling is strong and vice versa! Another thing is that heavy rainfall is not exactly the best environment for good tea yields... For consistent earnings over next 5 years stick to financials! Where does your confidence in financials come from? With Uhuru's talk of 7% growth by next year and double digit growth by 2015 who will benefit most if not financials?? Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser.
@Aguytrying Williamson will most likely disappoint on earnings due to the strong shilling... The historical earnings show poor performance when shilling is strong and vice versa! Another thing is that heavy rainfall is not exactly the best environment for good tea yields... For consistent earnings over next 5 years stick to financials! Where does your confidence in financials come from? Chessmaster, kweli you can ask that? May be you should keep watching "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser.
@Aguytrying Williamson will most likely disappoint on earnings due to the strong shilling... The historical earnings show poor performance when shilling is strong and vice versa! Another thing is that heavy rainfall is not exactly the best environment for good tea yields... For consistent earnings over next 5 years stick to financials! Where does your confidence in financials come from? With Uhuru's talk of 7% growth by next year and double digit growth by 2015 who will benefit most if not financials?? Short-run I agree with you.My problem comes in the long-run,when growth is mostly fueled by debt,which is our new trend,how do you see it playing out? On the other hand banks are 'too big to fail'.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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murchr wrote:symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser.
@Aguytrying Williamson will most likely disappoint on earnings due to the strong shilling... The historical earnings show poor performance when shilling is strong and vice versa! Another thing is that heavy rainfall is not exactly the best environment for good tea yields... For consistent earnings over next 5 years stick to financials! Where does your confidence in financials come from? Chessmaster, kweli you can ask that? May be you should keep watching When it comes to financials,I think mine is psychological.But I'll watch.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser.
@Aguytrying Williamson will most likely disappoint on earnings due to the strong shilling... The historical earnings show poor performance when shilling is strong and vice versa! Another thing is that heavy rainfall is not exactly the best environment for good tea yields... For consistent earnings over next 5 years stick to financials! Where does your confidence in financials come from? With Uhuru's talk of 7% growth by next year and double digit growth by 2015 who will benefit most if not financials?? Short-run I agree with you.My problem comes in the long-run,when growth is mostly fueled by debt,which is our new trend,how do you see it playing out? On the other hand banks are 'too big to fail'. All countries that are big today started off with huge debt.. It is wrong for us to compare our debt levels with that of developed economies! Besides the government has time and inflation on its side when it comes to debt servicing... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Williamson tea at 225 is a good play- easily going to 270 plus in july when results are announced, with a dividend to boot. The rise from 200-274 and fall back to 225 recently was the curtain raiser.
@Aguytrying Williamson will most likely disappoint on earnings due to the strong shilling... The historical earnings show poor performance when shilling is strong and vice versa! Another thing is that heavy rainfall is not exactly the best environment for good tea yields... For consistent earnings over next 5 years stick to financials! Where does your confidence in financials come from? With Uhuru's talk of 7% growth by next year and double digit growth by 2015 who will benefit most if not financials?? Short-run I agree with you.My problem comes in the long-run,when growth is mostly fueled by debt,which is our new trend,how do you see it playing out? On the other hand banks are 'too big to fail'. All countries that are big today started off with huge debt.. It is wrong for us to compare our debt levels with that of developed economies! Besides the government has time and inflation on its side when it comes to debt servicing... Our debt levels aren't nearly as high,but what concerns me is the rising levels of debt by government and individuals.What I'm trying to understand is,especially for banks,is our debt focused on consumption or investment?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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symbols wrote:What I'm trying to understand is,especially for banks,is our debt focused on consumption or investment? @symbols the good thing is that most of our debt is for investment but even when it is for consumption it is adequately backed by tangible collateral assets of some kind... This differs greatly with developed economies! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:What I'm trying to understand is,especially for banks,is our debt focused on consumption or investment? @symbols the good thing is that most of our debt is for investment but even when it is for consumption it is adequately backed by tangible collateral assets of some kind... This differs greatly with developed economies! I see your point.Thank you
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:What I'm trying to understand is,especially for banks,is our debt focused on consumption or investment? @symbols the good thing is that most of our debt is for investment but even when it is for consumption it is adequately backed by tangible collateral assets of some kind... This differs greatly with developed economies! I am not so sure our debt is primarily for investment. It seems a lot of it goes for recurrent expenditure including salaries for politicians, civil servants & wasteful activities. It might not be raised for 'consumption' but ends up there. As for backing with "tangible collateral assets" that is not the case for most government debt. Government debt is based on the 'full faith & credit of the government' which as you said... can be paid off by inflation caused by printing more money! That is debasement & hurts the local saver. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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VituVingiSana wrote:guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:What I'm trying to understand is,especially for banks,is our debt focused on consumption or investment? @symbols the good thing is that most of our debt is for investment but even when it is for consumption it is adequately backed by tangible collateral assets of some kind... This differs greatly with developed economies! I am not so sure our debt is primarily for investment. It seems a lot of it goes for recurrent expenditure including salaries for politicians, civil servants & wasteful activities. It might not be raised for 'consumption' but ends up there. As for backing with "tangible collateral assets" that is not the case for most government debt. Government debt is based on the 'full faith & credit of the government' which as you said... can be paid off by inflation caused by printing more money! That is debasement & hurts the local saver. Apart from the government,the banks keep posting profits but I don't really see it translating into growth for the country.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 972 Location: Home
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This thread made me good money in 2011 (KCB,KK) i also lost on Kenya Power but overall, good gains.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Low hanging fruits are beginning to show again. Im i the only one who was suffocated by the nse rally this year? nothing to buy!! Well TPSEA has supply at 48.00, i picked some for myself, sweet deal right there. I also see KK doing one of those supply tests at 9.00, and i have a bid there. I can't see anything else i like, but overall the market looks more juicier this week after a long time. Bon a petite The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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@Aguytrying. Keep watch on KQ also. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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Kenya re at 15 and Coop at 16 safe bet. gambled with Britam at 7.5 with target of 9 - pocket change quantity. Thieves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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jerry wrote:@Aguytrying. Keep watch on KQ also. caution bad company at a great price. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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