Wazua
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Housing Finance Q1 2013 PAT up 46%
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Will give this counter a week to see if it can shrug off NSE's buy weakeness period. If it does slip back to 20 that will be a welcome discount. Missed it while chasing kengen divs last Dec & still pinching myself for that mistake. Otherwise a good performance for Q1. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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hisah wrote:Will give this counter a week to see if it can shrug off NSE's buy weakeness period. If it does slip back to 20 that will be a welcome discount. Missed it while chasing kengen divs last Dec & still pinching myself for that mistake. Otherwise a good performance for Q1. I have been buying HF for a while now; I would love to get more at 20, but unless there is a more severe correction on the NSE, I am pessimistic that they will get to such a level.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:cnn wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:In need of a FY'12 vs Q1'13 analysis. Over to @mwekezaji & Co. That quarter one 2013 vs quarter four 2012 i can't wait to have a look at...loan book growth and NPLs. Comparing that article to this one reveals Q1 was very dull. Well, Mr. Mkt will decide on the valuations - Housing Finance posts Kshs 907 million full year profit http://www.housing.co.ke/index....million-full-year-profit @Cde, the Q1 2013 performance is stellar. If the momentum set in this quarter keeps on, HFCK will deliver very honourable performance in FY 2013. The thing I note with your view is that you are comparing Q4 2012 with Q1 2013 which is resulting to the incorrect picture you have. Historically and without fail, banks Q4 have outperformed by substantial margin all other quarters in the year. See below quarterly PBT statistics for HFCK and notice the huge spike in PBT during Q4 (This observation also applies to all other banks) Q1 2012 - KES 190,935 Q2 2012 - KES 166,646 Q3 2012 - KES 206,060 Q4 2012 - KES 343,990 Q1 2013 - KES 279,909
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@mwekezaji, you are right on the mark. As g267, a forward EPS of 4 will be attained. I am actually expecting higher at about 4.25. mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:cnn wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:In need of a FY'12 vs Q1'13 analysis. Over to @mwekezaji & Co. That quarter one 2013 vs quarter four 2012 i can't wait to have a look at...loan book growth and NPLs. Comparing that article to this one reveals Q1 was very dull. Well, Mr. Mkt will decide on the valuations - Housing Finance posts Kshs 907 million full year profit http://www.housing.co.ke/index....million-full-year-profit @Cde, the Q1 2013 performance is stellar. If the momentum set in this quarter keeps on, HFCK will deliver very honourable performance in FY 2013. The thing I note with your view is that you are comparing Q4 2012 with Q1 2013 which is resulting to the incorrect picture you have. Historically and without fail, banks Q4 have outperformed by substantial margin all other quarters in the year. See below quarterly PBT statistics for HFCK and notice the huge spike in PBT during Q4 (This observation also applies to all other banks) Q1 2012 190,935 Q2 2012 166,646 Q3 2012 206,060 Q4 2012 343,990 Q1 2013 279,909
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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mwekezaji, though that is usually true, I had indicated in an earlier thread (I think the Equity vs KCB one) that KCB failed to live up to many people's expectations as their Q4's came in lower as opposed to the 'traditional' Q4 surge: Q1 2,647,517 Q2 5,856,291 Q3 4,506,586 Q4 4,197,749 So exceptions are always there... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:mwekezaji, though that is usually true, I had indicated in an earlier thread (I think the Equity vs KCB one) that KCB failed to live up to many people's expectations as their Q4's came in lower as opposed to the 'traditional' Q4 surge:
Q1 2,647,517
Q2 5,856,291
Q3 4,506,586
Q4 4,197,749
So exceptions are always there...
#Noted. Asante. Speaking for HFCK, Q4 will shine more than ever. HFCK construction subsidiary, Kenya Building Society is expected to start contributing to HFCK bottomline in Q4 2013. #Things_getting_merrier_here 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,810 Location: NAIROBI
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HFCK is going to get competition from Co-op bank which is now entering the mortgage market with interest rates cheaper than HFCK. Alos Barclays is getting back to mortgage business which it had scaled down over the past few years. Both are doing similar models like HFCK i.e financing construction and also buyers at cheaper rates than HFCK Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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mwekez@ji wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:mwekezaji, though that is usually true, I had indicated in an earlier thread (I think the Equity vs KCB one) that KCB failed to live up to many people's expectations as their Q4's came in lower as opposed to the 'traditional' Q4 surge:
Q1 2,647,517
Q2 5,856,291
Q3 4,506,586
Q4 4,197,749
So exceptions are always there...
#Noted. Asante. Speaking for HFCK, Q4 will shine more than ever. HFCK construction subsidiary, Kenya Building Society is expected to start contributing to HFCK bottomline in Q4 2013. #Things_getting_merrier_here Yeah, a lot of their housing projects will be coming online during that period and the first half of 2014. I'm sure we'll be hearing of more projects as we head along GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,361 Location: Nairobi
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The management is optimistic about 2013. And rightly so (ceteris paribus) as 1Q 2013 would have been muted with the elections being a damper especially in the 'sensitive' areas. I expect construction in RV should pick up to account for increased economic activity. The KBS profits should roll in later (4Q 2013) but it sets the stage for a stronger 2014. At the current pace, it is likely HFCK can achieve a 4 EPS thus the current price of 26 seems 'cheap'... relative to other counters & banks. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,361 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:HFCK is going to get competition from Co-op bank which is now entering the mortgage market with interest rates cheaper than HFCK.
Alos Barclays is getting back to mortgage business which it had scaled down over the past few years.
Both are doing similar models like HFCK i.e financing construction and also buyers at cheaper rates than HFCK True but HFCK has 'institutional memory' while the newbies get their feet wet. Of course, there is always the possibility of a complete buy-out by Equity/Britam. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Housing Finance Q1 2013 PAT up 46%
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