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KenolKobil FY 2012 substrata loss of 9b!
VituVingiSana
#151 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 3:01:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Picked up some. And more kesho if the price holds/falls below 9.00 ... Let the good times roll!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#152 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 3:04:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
hisah wrote:
Today the supply is being tested properly as volume spikes. A number are still holding on to losses and these sellers must be shaken out to create a bottom. I expect 9/- to give in.


I am still biding my time on this one. To imagine that shortly after the profit warning, I was able to exit between 12.50 to 13.00 and I had tons of the stuff; and today at Kshs 9.00!!! The market has a way of driving a counter down to the right price after a company makes such huge losses. It may take a while, but it eventually gets there. I am beginning to think there's not too much downside from here.
the deal
#153 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 4:06:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Strong buying power always comes in at 9 bob...closed trading at 9.70 today...back at 10 bob in the next few session...once this stock hits the run away expect a parabolic rally...mark today...some fund entered the register...alot of Contrarians out there!!!
mwanahisa
#154 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 4:16:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
the deal wrote:
Strong buying power always comes in at 9 bob...closed trading at 9.70 today...back at 10 bob in the next few session...once this stock hits the run away expect a parabolic rally...mark today...some fund entered the register...alot of Contrarians out there!!!


10 bob in the next few days, POSSIBLY; Parabolic Rally - NOT in the next couple of months. I am assuming parabolic means getting back to Pre-Profit warning levels.

At the moment, I cannot see any triggers to push the price up rapidly. Either we get some good results announcement, a new suitor or a positive change in the operating environment.

I am therefore content to buy at 9.00 or sub 9.00 if it ever gets there. On this one, patience will most likely be a virtue. If it does not get back to 9.00 or below, I will happily buy it at 10 when the factors I have mentioned above change.
hisah
#155 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 4:25:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
Strong buying power always comes in at 9 bob...closed trading at 9.70 today...back at 10 bob in the next few session...once this stock hits the run away expect a parabolic rally...mark today...some fund entered the register...alot of Contrarians out there!!!

It's an interesting contra play esp with the hydrocarbon disconnect. Though price trimmed losses in the afternoon from 9 low to 9.70, VWAP closed @9.10. Selling pressure is still present.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#156 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 4:27:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwanahisa wrote:
the deal wrote:
Strong buying power always comes in at 9 bob...closed trading at 9.70 today...back at 10 bob in the next few session...once this stock hits the run away expect a parabolic rally...mark today...some fund entered the register...alot of Contrarians out there!!!


10 bob in the next few days, POSSIBLY; Parabolic Rally - NOT in the next couple of months. I am assuming parabolic means getting back to Pre-Profit warning levels.

At the moment, I cannot see any triggers to push the price up rapidly. Either we get some good results announcement, a new suitor or a positive change in the operating environment.

I am therefore content to buy at 9.00 or sub 9.00 if it ever gets there. On this one, patience will most likely be a virtue. If it does not get back to 9.00 or below, I will happily buy it at 10 when the factors I have mentioned above change.

Alot of folks are exiting at the bottom...so when good news kicks in sellers will be few hence a parabolic rally...as a rule always watch volumes after a strong downward/uptrend...it always marks the beginning or end of a trend....the volumes today & demand build up confirms that 9 bob is a sweet spot for many people...from my analysis H1 2013 should be stellar!
Aguytrying
#157 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 5:11:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Theres something and this share and 9 bob. So hard to get it there. It literaly bounces. U have to place an order before it happens.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#158 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 5:44:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
Theres something and this share and 9 bob. So hard to get it there. It literaly bounces. U have to place an order before it happens.

Patience. It has taken 2 weeks to get back to 9...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#159 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 6:15:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
I hope it stays at 9. The good news, the sellers must have been a large fund since Wanjiku cannot offer 5mn shares. I think once that sale order is exhausted the price will creep (not jump) upwards.

Next critical date: The AGM to see what JIS says about 1Q (the Chairman Statement said it was profitable) & 2Q. Then the release of 1H results.

In order to reduce the Group Borrowing level and Financing cost, Management recently put up for sale some of the Group’s under-performing and non- performing assets. Above actions together with a more conservative Forex Hedging, Marketing and Pricing Policies in certain Business Lines, in particular in Kenya operations, are expected to drive the turnaround in 2013 performance. Already, stronger gross profit and positive results have been noted in 4th Quarter 2012 and 1st Quarter 2013.

And JIS keeps his eyes on the prize!

Lastly, the company continues to evaluate its strategic options including potential strategic investors and/or partnerships with a view of securing and growing long term shareholders value.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#160 Posted : Wednesday, April 24, 2013 6:49:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Good to note that JIS has stock options of 20million shares in KK...if the KK stock at the NSE continues to tank he might not be able to exercise them...although I dont know the strike price, options can go underwater if a stock tanks...that will be a huge loss to JIS...i'm sure that's his retirement plan.
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