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KQ 2008-9 Results
VituVingiSana
#71 Posted : Thursday, June 11, 2009 11:56:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
KQ has accounted for the loss (NPV ) based not on the spot price but the future CURVE as they see it... (hmmm.....)

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#72 Posted : Thursday, June 11, 2009 11:59:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
See Raheel's answer. The FORWARD contracts (+swaps+derivatives) that KQ has are NOT the HTM assets you are thinking of. An HTM asset would be a T-Bill or Bond that pays at PAR upon maturity. The hedge instruments are FINANCIAL ASSETS (well,liabilities at this stage!!!)

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#73 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 12:08:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
KQ's hedging disclosures were INADEQUATE at best. My efforts were always rebuffed by answers such as 'confidential'. Well... that we know is BS. KQ did apply IAS 39 (well,the MTM) but ran it through the Balance Sheet (under Shareholders Equity as Hedge Reserve) & yes,it was qualified by the auditors (& disclosed by KQ). In the past,KQ made money from the hedges which would have 'over-stated' profits if shown in the P&L.

**** IMHO,running MTM through the balance sheet creates huge swings in reported EPS that do not reflect the true position of the firm's earnings. The MTM should be run through the balance sheet & DISCLOSURES made. The loss is real (well,in the sense that should oil prices remain below $110,then KQ's 'provision' will be paid out in real cash!) but since oil prices have jumped to $71,there are gains in the hedges (post-provision).

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
jammo
#74 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 5:33:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
For whatever reason..someone or 'someones' or somethin somewhere is tryin dun too hard to buoy the stock at sh20.00..alot of financial muscle. I remember a confession by that scangroup dude that some key investor in scangroup had committed to make sure to buy all available tradin stock whenever it touched 20.00 or lower....(i wonder what it must cost that investor during the market bottom period!!)...It's probable KQ has a similar strategic investor.

..if it is not expressly prohibited in law.. DO IT!!!!
kizee
#75 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 5:52:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
so...the hedge was aquired to hedge and not trade...so what sub category should it fall under...reavluing under a future curve? mama mia...what rocket scientists...hey VVS....even with bonds the sub categorization is made.....AFS,HTM and trading...again i beleive KQ would be bound to revalue the position if and only if they aquired it for purposes of trading...
VituVingiSana
#76 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 7:32:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
@jammo - there are only two I know. GoK @ 23% and KLM @ 26%. No idea about NSSF.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#77 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 7:37:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
It was always 'hedging' for KQ. Basically to lock in prices rather than speculative gains. There are a number of derivatives they have used. I hope they provide more info in the Annual Report. They have got forward contracts,puts & calls (to form a collar).
**** Revaluation 'gains' depend on the future values expected which is dependent on oil prices.
**** Also what did they hedge? Jet Fuel or Oil... and these are NOT always in sync. Add different 'markets' i.e. Brent,WTI,etc...


Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kizee
#78 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 7:44:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
all agreed...but what i dont get is why the asset is being categorized as a trading or available for sale asset
Raheel
#79 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 9:42:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/8/2007
Posts: 10
@ Kizee,

I think VVS has already answered your question,it is the nature of the hedging instrument that makes it a trading or available for sale asset. The instrument is a derivative contract (future or option) that is tradeable on an exchange.

@ VVS,

I completely agree,there is total lack of disclosure on the hedge and treatment of MTM,unless we know what exactly is the nature of the hedge some serious questions remain,like you have pointed out,I reiterate:

1) How much of prevoius profit was windfall from hedge now that they have provided for the loss in the current P&L.

2) How much income have they already gained or loss reduced for current period from run up of crude price from 40 $ bbl to 72 $ today?

3) What is the correct operating margin for the airline even if fuel cost is budgeted at 110$ bbl?

Creates a lot of uncertainity on the way forward


Raheel
kizee
#80 Posted : Friday, June 12, 2009 11:05:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
@ raheel...

has he reaaly answered me? heck if u buy a GOK bond which is nse traded,you do subcategorize it as either afs,htm or trading...same thing for a derivative...or any other financial instrument...the subcategoization depends on the purpose for which the asset was aquired...whether or not its traded is not an issue,OTC financial assets-the most famous perhaps being mortgage backed securities...also do require marking to market...or to use a risk managemnt time...marking to model....liquidity of the asset or otherwise is not the issue...a hedge in my view is an HTM asset...the only time when u are banned from holdin an HTM book is when u sell an asset categorized as such...and even then the ban only lasts for 2 years(i think)....
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