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KenolKobil FY 2012 substrata loss of 9b!
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@mlennyma ametumwa...kikiki! LOL, that's why I love this ;-) Coz buy when there is blood on the streets  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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Over 1mn shares have traded as of 12.05pm BIDS 2.07M Quantity Price Splits Time 123,600 10.35 2 12:02:45 201,500 10.30 3 12:02:45 5,400 10.25 3 12:02:45 25,000 10.05 1 12:02:45 67,000 10.00 15 12:02:45 ASKS 498,700 Quantity Price Splits Time 69,100 10.45 3 12:02:45 121,600 10.50 2 12:02:45 10,000 10.55 1 12:02:45 24,000 10.65 2 12:02:45 20,000 10.95 1 12:02:45 TRADES Quantity Price Time 500 10.45 12:02:44 300 10.45 12:02:44 37,000 10.40 12:00:44 13,000 10.40 11:58:33 20,500 10.40 11:58:33 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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And in 10 mins another 500,000 were traded so now it stands at 1.53mn shares. BIDS 1.89M Quantity Price Splits Time 23,600 10.35 1 12:10:34 101,500 10.30 2 12:10:34 5,400 10.25 3 12:10:34 1,000 10.10 1 12:10:34 25,000 10.05 1 12:10:34 ASKS 523,600 Quantity Price Splits Time 24,900 10.40 2 12:10:34 69,100 10.45 3 12:10:34 121,600 10.50 2 12:10:34 10,000 10.55 1 12:10:34 24,000 10.65 2 12:10:34 TRADES Quantity Price Time 397,300 10.40 12:06:58 97,800 10.40 12:06:58 500 10.45 12:02:44 300 10.45 12:02:44 37,000 10.40 12:00:44 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Heavy volumes...fear has now turned into hope...so I stay winning....now waiting for more guidance from JIS to finally turn the watermelons into firm believers...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mwekez@ji wrote:murchr wrote:Hii bull haina mchezo @Mwekez@ji, who's buying? Locals are both in the buying and selling side of this counter. The number and volume of the deals indicate local retailers. Since release of the FYR, foreigners have stayed out Thank you  "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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BAAM!!! KK downgraded by Genghis. New rating; HOLD. Target Price; KES 12.00
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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mwekez@ji wrote:BAAM!!! KK downgraded by Genghis. New rating; HOLD. Target Price; KES 12.00 @mwekez@ji, mind sharing the report on wazua googlegroup? Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:BAAM!!! KK downgraded by Genghis. New rating; HOLD. Target Price; KES 12.00 The valuation of this counter is highly subjective: 1. Looming sale 2. Assets carried at historical values 3. Contigent liabilities 4. Earnings affected by unforcastable factors like forex rates, interest rates. Even mr Market is unable to value it properly. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:BAAM!!! KK downgraded by Genghis. New rating; HOLD. Target Price; KES 12.00 The valuation of this counter is highly subjective: 1. Looming sale 2. Assets carried at historical values 3. Contigent liabilities 4. Earnings affected by unforcastable factors like forex rates, interest rates. Even mr Market is unable to value it properly. They downgraded it AFTER the bad news about 2H. Too little, too late but it is still valued at 15% above the current price. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:BAAM!!! KK downgraded by Genghis. New rating; HOLD. Target Price; KES 12.00 The valuation of this counter is highly subjective: 1. Looming sale 2. Assets carried at historical values 3. Contigent liabilities 4. Earnings affected by unforcastable factors like forex rates, interest rates. Even mr Market is unable to value it properly. They downgraded it AFTER the bad news about 2H. Too little, too late but it is still valued at 15% above the current price. The 2H results stunned many by falling far far below expectations. Add the matters raised above, our other brokers must also be in a tough state of thought on what value to tag KK
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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now that everything seems to factored in and surprise suprise trading above 10 bob. I think anyone who believes in this counter should start buying now at current prices any discount below this should be considered a bonus. still baffled by resilience though. reminds Me of when I used to pick a few every now and then 2 years ago. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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KES 9-10 band provides a very strong support for this counter. At the current VWAP of KES 10.40, RSI has fallen below 50 which is a good thing. Would want to see this RSI fall further to 30. ... The support band is likely to be revisited soon and I’ll be watching to see how it behaves #Following #All_Speculation. ... Fundamentally, H1 2013 results and any changes in government policies towards this sector will paint the picture. Currently the fundamentals picture is very blur
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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KK said 1Q 2013 profits were on the mend. And positive. That's a huge plus. The disposal of properties considered non-performing &/or non-core will be worth a pretty penny. Pluses: Positive 1Q 2013 earnings Cash from property sales (reduce debt) Reduction in debt (interest savings) Reduction in interest debt (interest savings) Focus on the business not Puma Stronger KES means lower financing costs + stable pricing Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:KES 9-10 band provides a very strong support for this counter. At the current VWAP of KES 10.40, RSI has fallen below 50 which is a good thing. Would want to see this RSI fall further to 30. ... The support band is likely to be revisited soon and I’ll be watching to see how it behaves #Following #All_Speculation. ... Fundamentally, H1 2013 results and any changes in government policies towards this sector will paint the picture. Currently the fundamentals picture is very blur When 9.05 printed post shocking news there was no shakeout and the following day there was no sizable volume as well. Like you state that 9/- level has to be revisited to confirm sellers don't exist in order for sizable buy volume to come in and push to the upside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOS8QgAQO-k
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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I am buyer at 8... I will even sell other shares to buy at 8... I would look at it at 9 as well... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:KK said 1Q 2013 profits were on the mend. And positive. That's a huge plus. The disposal of properties considered non-performing &/or non-core will be worth a pretty penny.
Pluses:
Positive 1Q 2013 earnings
Cash from property sales (reduce debt)
Reduction in debt (interest savings)
Reduction in interest debt (interest savings)
Focus on the business not Puma
Stronger KES means lower financing costs + stable pricing @VVS when paka makes profits from asset sales it is referred to as a dustbin but for some reason when KK does the same everything is all fine and dandy!! You say that a stronger KES will help the bottom line and I say the opposite! Knowing the KK management, they must have thought the election would result in the KES crashing so do not be surprised if they hedged themselves at 86-87... This means that if the shilling strengthens we have more derivative losses coming in 2013! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:KK said 1Q 2013 profits were on the mend. And positive. That's a huge plus. The disposal of properties considered non-performing &/or non-core will be worth a pretty penny.
Pluses:
Positive 1Q 2013 earnings
Cash from property sales (reduce debt)
Reduction in debt (interest savings)
Reduction in interest debt (interest savings)
Focus on the business not Puma
Stronger KES means lower financing costs + stable pricing @VVS when paka makes profits from asset sales it is referred to as a dustbin but for some reason when KK does the same everything is all fine and dandy!! You say that a stronger KES will help the bottom line and I say the opposite! Knowing the KK management, they must have thought the election would result in the KES crashing so do not be surprised if they hedged themselves at 86-87... This means that if the shilling strengthens we have more derivative losses coming in 2013! @guru - if your suggestion about fx hedging is correct, more fx losses are coming. How much fx hedge did they take up last year and how much could they have rolled over this year? KES is 4% plus vs $ in 2013. If they took a hedge against 90/- this year anticipating KES weakness post election... Aicaramba! 
Otherwise if no fx hedges then the repair will be on course. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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Hedging success or failure is one part...but perhaps more important for the medium to long term is how KK will deal with ERC price setting. Off-course they will definitely go into cost savings and increased sales but these are not significant game changers as costcutting can only yield so much. Increasing sales would involve increased marketing costs, eating into the already depressed gross sales.
Methinks that they will have to heavily shift to other regions (where ERC or its equivalent does not exist) and/or other non-ERC controlled products (Jet fuel, industrial diesel, lubricants etc) to continue to create value for shareholders.
Otherwise - shareholders will continue to be exposed to fluctuations due to results of hedging and enticement of strategic investors.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:KK said 1Q 2013 profits were on the mend. And positive. That's a huge plus. The disposal of properties considered non-performing &/or non-core will be worth a pretty penny.
Pluses:
Positive 1Q 2013 earnings
Cash from property sales (reduce debt)
Reduction in debt (interest savings)
Reduction in interest debt (interest savings)
Focus on the business not Puma
Stronger KES means lower financing costs + stable pricing @VVS when paka makes profits from asset sales it is referred to as a dustbin but for some reason when KK does the same everything is all fine and dandy!! You say that a stronger KES will help the bottom line and I say the opposite! Knowing the KK management, they must have thought the election would result in the KES crashing so do not be surprised if they hedged themselves at 86-87... This means that if the shilling strengthens we have more derivative losses coming in 2013! You need to re-read what I wrote. I said assets sales by KK will REDUCE DEBT which leads to long-term savings on INTEREST COSTS. If asset sales [as done by Neveready] are simply done to boost profits [to pay dividends] then it is unsustainable in the long-term. The same would apply to KK. From the PBT/PAT/EPS, I would immediately discount the 'profit' from asset sales. Note that KK is a net debtor [financing billions in inventories] & so a reduction in loans is a huge plus. I cannot speak for KK's hedging policy in 2013 but if they backed off currency hedges after the 2012 debacle then the lower financing costs occasioned by a strong KES helps them. If they hedged at 87, then you know what that means. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/25/2012 Posts: 110
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So Segman got a pay cut http://www.businessdaily...84/-/b9sblx/-/index.htmlThere is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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KenolKobil FY 2012 substrata loss of 9b!
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