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KenolKobil FY 2012 substrata loss of 9b!
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Aguytrying
#131 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2013 12:24:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
now that everything seems to factored in and surprise suprise trading above 10 bob. I think anyone who believes in this counter should start buying now at current prices any discount below this should be considered a bonus. still baffled by resilience though. reminds Me of when I used to pick a few every now and then 2 years ago.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwekez@ji
#132 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2013 12:54:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
KES 9-10 band provides a very strong support for this counter. At the current VWAP of KES 10.40, RSI has fallen below 50 which is a good thing. Would want to see this RSI fall further to 30. ... The support band is likely to be revisited soon and I’ll be watching to see how it behaves #Following #All_Speculation. ... Fundamentally, H1 2013 results and any changes in government policies towards this sector will paint the picture. Currently the fundamentals picture is very blur
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VituVingiSana
#133 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2013 1:43:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
KK said 1Q 2013 profits were on the mend. And positive. That's a huge plus. The disposal of properties considered non-performing &/or non-core will be worth a pretty penny.

Pluses:

Positive 1Q 2013 earnings
Cash from property sales (reduce debt)
Reduction in debt (interest savings)
Reduction in interest debt (interest savings)
Focus on the business not Puma
Stronger KES means lower financing costs + stable pricing
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#134 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2013 1:45:02 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
KES 9-10 band provides a very strong support for this counter. At the current VWAP of KES 10.40, RSI has fallen below 50 which is a good thing. Would want to see this RSI fall further to 30. ... The support band is likely to be revisited soon and I’ll be watching to see how it behaves #Following #All_Speculation. ... Fundamentally, H1 2013 results and any changes in government policies towards this sector will paint the picture. Currently the fundamentals picture is very blur

When 9.05 printed post shocking news there was no shakeout and the following day there was no sizable volume as well. Like you state that 9/- level has to be revisited to confirm sellers don't exist in order for sizable buy volume to come in and push to the upside.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOS8QgAQO-k
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, April 17, 2013 1:46 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#135 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2013 8:39:09 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
I am buyer at 8... I will even sell other shares to buy at 8... I would look at it at 9 as well...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#136 Posted : Thursday, April 18, 2013 5:12:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
KK said 1Q 2013 profits were on the mend. And positive. That's a huge plus. The disposal of properties considered non-performing &/or non-core will be worth a pretty penny.

Pluses:

Positive 1Q 2013 earnings
Cash from property sales (reduce debt)
Reduction in debt (interest savings)
Reduction in interest debt (interest savings)
Focus on the business not Puma
Stronger KES means lower financing costs + stable pricing


@VVS when paka makes profits from asset sales it is referred to as a dustbin but for some reason when KK does the same everything is all fine and dandy!!

You say that a stronger KES will help the bottom line and I say the opposite! Knowing the KK management, they must have thought the election would result in the KES crashing so do not be surprised if they hedged themselves at 86-87...

This means that if the shilling strengthens we have more derivative losses coming in 2013!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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hisah
#137 Posted : Thursday, April 18, 2013 7:21:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
KK said 1Q 2013 profits were on the mend. And positive. That's a huge plus. The disposal of properties considered non-performing &/or non-core will be worth a pretty penny.

Pluses:

Positive 1Q 2013 earnings
Cash from property sales (reduce debt)
Reduction in debt (interest savings)
Reduction in interest debt (interest savings)
Focus on the business not Puma
Stronger KES means lower financing costs + stable pricing


@VVS when paka makes profits from asset sales it is referred to as a dustbin but for some reason when KK does the same everything is all fine and dandy!!

You say that a stronger KES will help the bottom line and I say the opposite! Knowing the KK management, they must have thought the election would result in the KES crashing so do not be surprised if they hedged themselves at 86-87...

This means that if the shilling strengthens we have more derivative losses coming in 2013!

@guru - if your suggestion about fx hedging is correct, more fx losses are coming. How much fx hedge did they take up last year and how much could they have rolled over this year? KES is 4% plus vs $ in 2013. If they took a hedge against 90/- this year anticipating KES weakness post election... Aicaramba! d'oh!

Otherwise if no fx hedges then the repair will be on course.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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winston
#138 Posted : Thursday, April 18, 2013 2:20:27 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Hedging success or failure is one part...but perhaps more important for the medium to long term is how KK will deal with ERC price setting. Off-course they will definitely go into cost savings and increased sales but these are not significant game changers as costcutting can only yield so much. Increasing sales would involve increased marketing costs, eating into the already depressed gross sales.

Methinks that they will have to heavily shift to other regions (where ERC or its equivalent does not exist) and/or other non-ERC controlled products (Jet fuel, industrial diesel, lubricants etc) to continue to create value for shareholders.

Otherwise - shareholders will continue to be exposed to fluctuations due to results of hedging and enticement of strategic investors.
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VituVingiSana
#139 Posted : Thursday, April 18, 2013 2:59:39 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
KK said 1Q 2013 profits were on the mend. And positive. That's a huge plus. The disposal of properties considered non-performing &/or non-core will be worth a pretty penny.

Pluses:

Positive 1Q 2013 earnings
Cash from property sales (reduce debt)
Reduction in debt (interest savings)
Reduction in interest debt (interest savings)
Focus on the business not Puma
Stronger KES means lower financing costs + stable pricing


@VVS when paka makes profits from asset sales it is referred to as a dustbin but for some reason when KK does the same everything is all fine and dandy!!

You say that a stronger KES will help the bottom line and I say the opposite! Knowing the KK management, they must have thought the election would result in the KES crashing so do not be surprised if they hedged themselves at 86-87...

This means that if the shilling strengthens we have more derivative losses coming in 2013!
You need to re-read what I wrote. I said assets sales by KK will REDUCE DEBT which leads to long-term savings on INTEREST COSTS. If asset sales [as done by Neveready] are simply done to boost profits [to pay dividends] then it is unsustainable in the long-term. The same would apply to KK. From the PBT/PAT/EPS, I would immediately discount the 'profit' from asset sales.

Note that KK is a net debtor [financing billions in inventories] & so a reduction in loans is a huge plus.

I cannot speak for KK's hedging policy in 2013 but if they backed off currency hedges after the 2012 debacle then the lower financing costs occasioned by a strong KES helps them. If they hedged at 87, then you know what that means.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, April 18, 2013 3:03 PM | Reason: Not specified
MoneyMonger
#140 Posted : Tuesday, April 23, 2013 9:06:54 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/25/2012
Posts: 110
So Segman got a pay cut http://www.businessdaily...84/-/b9sblx/-/index.html
There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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