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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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SittingPretty wrote:hisah wrote:12 trading days remaining. Will NSE20 close above 5000 or will it close at open (4860) or below open. This is what I'm keenly looking at since the volume is now indicating buying fatigue. If April closes at 4860 or below, more selling is slated to come in May.
Keep this in mind... @Hisah. What would be the significance if it was to close at 4860 or below! If I quoteyou, it means demand will be overwhelmed by sellers?? = price drop?? ... The index has been rallying for 6 months since Nov 2012. Closing lower than 4860 will trigger a reversal of that trend. A sharper correction should hold around 4400 since 2013 main support is at 4350 - 4400 level. Breaking that would mean the entire 2013 rally will be retraced!
Breaking down 5000 - 5400 layers is not a walk in the park. The main bluechip counters that determine the index trend are getting pricey by the day. Most of their P/B (price to book) values are becoming inelastic as the prices head north. A breather is required to spice up some discounts to attract more buying. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:It's raining,should we start looking at agricultural stocks? Not with the strength coming through on the KES! Lets say they have good produce,should we just ignore that because of currency? Main revenue/ cost drivers are weather, currency rates, input costs and labour costs in that order. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 972 Location: Home
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hisah wrote:I'm waiting to see the prices next month. Oil has taken it in the chin in April as well as many commodoties. Market rumour is hedge funds deleveraging. If true this is not a good sign since global equities will follow suit soon.
@CNBCnow ALERT: Gold has biggest 1-day percentage drop since March 17, 1980 and biggest 1-day dollar drop ever. Crude also tumbling. http://www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/2ybb9xz/-/index.htmlYou are the guru, what does this mean for the NSE?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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holycow wrote:hisah wrote:I'm waiting to see the prices next month. Oil has taken it in the chin in April as well as many commodities. Market rumour is hedge funds deleveraging. If true this is not a good sign since global equities will follow suit soon.
@CNBCnow ALERT: Gold has biggest 1-day percentage drop since March 17, 1980 and biggest 1-day dollar drop ever. Crude also tumbling. http://www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/2ybb9xz/-/index.htmlYou are the guru, what does this mean for the NSE? I'm no guru, I just read trends and correlations. Commodities have had it rough in April. When copper & oil get sledge hammered equities follow suit. US markets are in the red today partly also due to the Boston Marathon explosions, which is pushing the selling button for now. Asia will be opening in 4hrs time. The selling will continue. Then London and the cycle continues. I'll be checking the London session and FTSE NSE indices to see how they trade.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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holycow wrote:hisah wrote:I'm waiting to see the prices next month. Oil has taken it in the chin in April as well as many commodoties. Market rumour is hedge funds deleveraging. If true this is not a good sign since global equities will follow suit soon.
@CNBCnow ALERT: Gold has biggest 1-day percentage drop since March 17, 1980 and biggest 1-day dollar drop ever. Crude also tumbling. http://www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/2ybb9xz/-/index.htmlYou are the guru, what does this mean for the NSE? Its a very simple relationship! When gold and crude crash down then global stocks shoot up and the vice versa is true! @hisah has pointed out this relationship countless of times! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@cde - the kodak moment - brent below $100 while $/KES has bullied 87 to the 83s corner. ERC & oil firms facing a trump card situation while econ very happy... Will ERC and oil firms and KPLC fairly discount their prices after such an oil crash & KES strength convergence? The discount in petro if it remains this way will be north of 7/- Nani atakubali hii discount? I'm waiting for the flimsy explanations why pump price cuts will be tiny... I'll be watching the same scenario in India too were oil sharks act funny too when huge price falls are on the cards. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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guru267 wrote:holycow wrote:hisah wrote:I'm waiting to see the prices next month. Oil has taken it in the chin in April as well as many commodoties. Market rumour is hedge funds deleveraging. If true this is not a good sign since global equities will follow suit soon.
@CNBCnow ALERT: Gold has biggest 1-day percentage drop since March 17, 1980 and biggest 1-day dollar drop ever. Crude also tumbling. http://www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/2ybb9xz/-/index.htmlYou are the guru, what does this mean for the NSE? Its a very simple relationship! When gold and crude crash down then global stocks shoot up and the vice versa is true! @hisah has pointed out this relationship countless of times! Many factors are favouring the bull trend that started last year. I hope the bull won’t act bizarre like @hisah oflate discourse of bear ….  ea cable stands to benefit from the low copper prices
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mwekezaji - I'm not yet a bear. I stated that for now I only see the market being sideways (consolidation). In a sideways market it gets very boring. My query is will the lofty prices in most blue chips get support going forward if the outlook past H1 forecasts flat profit growth? However, I do like seeing the oil price nosedive and a muscular KES. Fuel bill reduction is welcome to any econ as it acts background stimulus. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:@mwekezaji - I'm not yet a bear. I stated that for now I only see the market being sideways (consolidation). In a sideways market it gets very boring. My query is will the lofty prices in most blue chips get support going forward if the outlook past H1 forecasts flat profit growth?
However, I do like seeing the oil price nosedive and a muscular KES. Fuel bill reduction is welcome to any econ as it acts background stimulus. Asante sana for the clarification. ... will remain in the bull camp. also liking today pickup in turnover and foreigners participation
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/16/2012 Posts: 661
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hisah wrote:@cde - the kodak moment - brent below $100 while $/KES has bullied 87 to the 83s corner. ERC & oil firms facing a trump card situation while econ very happy...
Will ERC and oil firms and KPLC fairly discount their prices after such an oil crash & KES strength convergence? The discount in petro if it remains this way will be north of 7/- Nani atakubali hii discount? I'm waiting for the flimsy explanations why pump price cuts will be tiny... I'll be watching the same scenario in India too were oil sharks act funny too when huge price falls are on the cards. So many of us in this corner.  Maybe it [a small drop] will be attributed to the 'drop' this month.  Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:@cde - the kodak moment - brent below $100 while $/KES has bullied 87 to the 83s corner. ERC & oil firms facing a trump card situation while econ very happy...
Will ERC and oil firms and KPLC fairly discount their prices after such an oil crash & KES strength convergence? The discount in petro if it remains this way will be north of 7/- Nani atakubali hii discount? I'm waiting for the flimsy explanations why pump price cuts will be tiny... I'll be watching the same scenario in India too were oil sharks act funny too when huge price falls are on the cards. They ought to understand the importance of the feed-through, though I wonder how OMCs will deal with volatility. 14th si mbali...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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FTSE NSE indices finish slightly away from 1% down. NSE20 will likely also close slightly down. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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[quote=Cde Monomotapa]The ZSE has caught the flu too. Index off http://wwww.zimbabwe-sto...=1&LangID=1&s=0[/quote] How many are in agreement that the ZSE's website is thorough to the NSE's?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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The upside is not much, IMHO its time to take profits. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Those Q1 numbers can't come fast enough... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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How to tell the NSE has topped out? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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I dont think we can talk of market pick.if the economy will keep growing given the positive outlook,and lack of good returns in other money market fronts,we are yet to see high prices. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Aguytrying wrote:How to tell the NSE has topped out? I doubt we're there.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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symbols wrote:Aguytrying wrote:How to tell the NSE has topped out? I doubt we're there. For Equity and KCB ,i think the music stopped. They have been registering lower lows
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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