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KenolKobil FY 2012 substrata loss of 9b!
VituVingiSana
#81 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:19:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Do you have 1mn KK to sell at 9.75? There are buyers ready. Don't forget KK is related to Kestrel who has a huge roster of foreign institutional clients who can probably buy up the entire firm if it was for sale at Shs 8-10. A pity coz I was waiting for 7 like many other investors.

4Q 2012 & 1Q 2013 were profitable [not sure how profitable] according to the Press Release. Total indicated that they had turned the corner as well [except for the Triton/Glencore settlement payout] so it might be a trend. Profits mean little. What's the ROE & ROA?

BIDS 1.80M
Quantity Price Splits Time
65,800 9.90 5 10:01:32
10,000 9.85 1 10:01:32
105,300 9.80 2 10:01:32
1.03M 9.75 4 10:01:32
14,500 9.70 2 10:01:32
ASKS 30,400
Quantity Price Splits Time
6,200 10.00 1 10:01:32
79,000 11.00 5 10:01:32
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
800 10.00 09:55:29
2,500 10.00 09:54:30
15,800 10.25 09:48:44
- - -
- - -
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Pesa Nane
#82 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:24:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Aguytrying wrote:
The share price action after announcement of the loss is having me worried. ITs the top gainer today so far at 10.25(5.67%).
I would have been ok with the share getting hammered to 8-9 in the short time, because it would MAKE SENSE!
This doesn't make sense. It leaves me wondering why? why is there so much demand and might the buyers know/or think they know something. Or is it just the cool aid going round at the NSE at the moment.
Either way as a shareholder i feel more at risk now than if the share plummeted. I have this eerily feeling that the music might stop at any time.
Im i alone in this?

Me thinks its speculative play for majority of buyers. They believe they are bottom fishing. Once this curiosity if satisfied, well, the DJ might just switch off the music OR the loss might have been forgotten by then.
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
VituVingiSana
#83 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:28:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Lets talk numbers.
1.What does the loss do to the assets of the company?
2.How does it affect the shareholders stake in the company?

bear with my basic questions


KK has some good assets sometime back the management had talked about going into real estate. I hope they can pursue the same instead of selling assets to support a retail business with low margins and price controls. You can't spend good money chasing bad money. If they can't negotiate with the new govt to remove or relax the price controls its best to leave that sector to NOCK to do oil retail business the govt can absorb the losses that come from the inefficiencies in this sector but not private capital. Shareholders want to make money it doesn't matter from which sector. It's time KK management realised this or they surely but slowly go down the tubes


@mkonomtupu, Could you have even a rough estimate of the true value of KK assets? &why KK choose to convert to historic valuation of the assets? It makes it very difficult to decrypt value in the Balance Sheet which would be good to know incase another takeover comes knocking or when the worst comes knocking
I disagreed at going back to Historic Value but
1) No need to revalue regularly due to costs
2) Reduced depreciation costs esp on buildings. Land cannot be depreciated (or impaired) unless there is a material reason e.g. land taken by road expansion. See the closed KK on Muranga Rd towards Pangani from Ngara.
3) Makes ROE & ROA look better. That's why I disagree with the management.
4) Wild fluctuations in REPORTED value of land/properties in Kenya. The comparisons are not easy with an almost non-existent database of land values. Many land valuations are done at values the owners want not the value in an open market.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#84 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:34:13 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
What's the ROE & ROA?


All are currently negative. The huge loss has consumed equity and reduced the Net Book Value per Share by a whooping KES 4.27 and worse my analysis tells me that KK NBV is quite low
the deal
#85 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:50:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
What's the ROE & ROA?


All are currently negative. The huge loss has consumed equity and reduced the Net Book Value per Share by a whooping KES 4.27 and worse my analysis tells me that KK NBV is quite low

What analysis is this???? when KK assets are carried at historic cost!!!
mwekez@ji
#86 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 11:02:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
What's the ROE & ROA?


All are currently negative. The huge loss has consumed equity and reduced the Net Book Value per Share by a whooping KES 4.27 and worse my analysis tells me that KK NBV is quite low

What analysis is this???? when KK assets are carried at historic cost!!!


The ROE & ROA are in the negative and it would never change even if the assets were not carried at historic cost!!! ... You young boy have a lot to learn. .... You also fail to answer the important questions (like Post 64) and then you come yapping. what an immature character you are
mkonomtupu
#87 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 11:04:07 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@mwekez@ji if you are a KK shareholder you need to read the article below with an open mind and then looks at the comments from @coldtusker and ask "What is prompting the principal shareholders of KenolKobil to want to dispose of their assets?"

http://www.businessdaily...1/-/5eipsm/-/index.html

"If KenolKobil plans to remain in the market, then it may be necessary to completely and visibly overhaul its management (and board) to provide an opportunity for new style, vision and flexibility in a market that has become very competitive and with increased regulatory demands."

IMHO KK has good assets but potential skeletons and they used lawyers too much to cover for the skeletons. In the words of Lawrence Garfield about lawyers in business you use them...

"Kate Sullivan: Well, for someone who has nothing nice to say about lawyers, you certainly have plenty of them around.
Lawrence Garfield: They're like nuclear warheads. They have theirs, so I have mine. Once you use 'em, they f*** everything up."
the deal
#88 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 11:08:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
What's the ROE & ROA?


All are currently negative. The huge loss has consumed equity and reduced the Net Book Value per Share by a whooping KES 4.27 and worse my analysis tells me that KK NBV is quite low

What analysis is this???? when KK assets are carried at historic cost!!!


The ROE & ROA are in the negative and it would never change even if the assets were not carried at historic cost!!! ... You young boy have a lot to learn. .... You also fail to answer the important questions (like Post 64) and then you come yapping. what a character you are

Come slowly...I was reffering to your analysis of NBV not ROE & ROA those are negative...its common knowledge.....I repeat....how did you arrive at KK's NBV being much lower if KK's asset are carried at historic cost on the B/S?
mwekez@ji
#89 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 11:30:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
What's the ROE & ROA?


All are currently negative. The huge loss has consumed equity and reduced the Net Book Value per Share by a whooping KES 4.27 and worse my analysis tells me that KK NBV is quite low

What analysis is this???? when KK assets are carried at historic cost!!!


The ROE & ROA are in the negative and it would never change even if the assets were not carried at historic cost!!! ... You young boy have a lot to learn. .... You also fail to answer the important questions (like Post 64) and then you come yapping. what an immature character you are

Come slowly...I was reffering to your analysis of NBV not ROE & ROA those are negative...its common knowledge.....I repeat....how did you arrive at KK's NBV being much lower if KK's asset are carried at historic cost on the B/S?


I repeat

The huge loss has consumed equity and reduced the Net Book Value per Share by a whooping KES 4.27 {Simple direct calculations from the financials (6,284,575,000/ 1,471,761,200)}

KK NBV is quite low {Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation (you need to learn this)}

simmons
#90 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 11:33:30 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 1/28/2013
Posts: 61
Location: Nairobi s
Translate this in swahili,Mazee si get anything
Never be afraid to try something new.Remeber,amateurs built the ark Professionals built titanic.-Anonymous
21 Pages«<7891011>»
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