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KenolKobil FY 2012 substrata loss of 9b!
the deal
#61 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 1:38:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
It can be very bad if some guys throw this bad news aiming to buy cheap.

Offcourse not everyone is as backward thinking as some of you...you do realise Kenol is still in business...making money as we speak...the loss happened...its in the past...move on.


At @the deal, I am in KK but when things are bad, we gotta admit it. Its bad! how we make good of a bad situation is another issue.

Imagine if KK makes a similar loss in 2013. We will be talking of liquidation. Thats a company you want to think twice before you put in your money.

For the people already in, its time to minimise your risk to acceptable levels.

Just sell your shares...

I make my decisions...so far my strategy has been successful...KenGen at 7.50 now at 16....Liberty at average of 7.20 now above 12...just to name a few trades...

There is no need to change a successful strategy...

Kenol will recover...


FV: above 20 bob.

From tomorrow I start buying.
Jamani
#62 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 2:17:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554

BIDS 3.49M
Quantity Price Splits Time
5,100 9.90 2 14:00:59
11,000 9.85 2 14:00:59
50,200 9.80 2 14:00:59
30,400 9.75 5 14:00:59
1,000 9.70 1 14:00:59
ASKS 363,400
Quantity Price Splits Time
132,600 10.00 2 14:00:59
40,000 10.25 1 14:00:59
100 10.45 1 14:00:59
50,000 10.75 1 14:00:59
3,700 10.80 1 14:00:59
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
900 10.00 14:00:58
1,800 10.00 13:23:33
400 9.90 13:19:38
7,500 9.90 13:09:54
3,000 9.90 13:00:50
Aguytrying
#63 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 3:15:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
When Olympia, eveready are flying. And Kk gets such demand after a 9b loss. Then u know the market is topping out.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwekez@ji
#64 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 5:05:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:


KK FV: above 20 bob.



Substantiate
mwekez@ji
#65 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 5:30:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Self-evidently very poor Results. Total Kenya looks a much more attractive Option over the next 12 months. Ditto Rich
obiero
#66 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 5:32:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,557
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
It can be very bad if some guys throw this bad news aiming to buy cheap.

Offcourse not everyone is as backward thinking as some of you...you do realise Kenol is still in business...making money as we speak...the loss happened...its in the past...move on.

^ hii mtu lazima ikuwe ya PPP

COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
obiero
#67 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 5:42:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,557
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
With regard to KK and Total I just have to give the Lawrence Garfield speech in that movie "Other Peoples Money"

"Amen, and amen, and amen. You'll have to forgive me, I'm not familiar with the local custom. Where I come from, you always say 'Amen' after you hear a prayer. Because that's what you just heard - a prayer. Where I come from, that particular prayer is called 'The Prayer for the Dead.' You just heard The Prayer for the Dead, my fellow stockholders, and you didn't say, 'Amen.' This company is dead. I didn't kill it. Don't blame me. It was dead when I got here. It's too late for prayers. For even if the prayers were answered, and a miracle occurred, and the yen did this, and the dollar did that, and the infrastructure did the other thing, we would still be dead! You know why? Fiber optics. New technologies. Obsolescence. We're dead, alright. We're just not broke. And do you know the surest way to go broke? Keep getting an increasing share of a shrinking market. Down the tubes. Slow, but sure.


You know, at one time, there must've been dozens of companies making buggy whips. And I'll bet the last company around was the one that made the best god-damn buggy whip you ever saw. Now how would you have liked to have been a stockholder in that company? You invested in a business and this business is dead. Let's have the intelligence, let's have the decency to sign the death certificate, collect the insurance, and invest in something with a future. 'Ah, but we can't,' goes the prayer. 'We can't because we have responsibility, a responsibility to our employees, to our community. What will happen to them?' I got two words for that - 'Who cares?' Care about them? Why? They didn't care about you. They sucked you dry. You have no responsibility to them. For the last ten years, this company bled your money. Did this community ever say, 'We know times are tough. We'll lower taxes, reduce water and sewer.' Check it out: You're paying twice what you did ten years ago. And our devoted employees, who have taken no increases for the past three years, are still making twice what they made ten years ago. And our stock - one-sixth of what it was ten years ago. 'Who cares?' I'll tell ya -- Me.


I'm not your best friend. I'm your only friend. I don't make anything. I'm makin' you money. And lest we forget, that's the only reason any of you became stockholders in the first place. You wanna make money! You don't care if they manufacture wire and cable, fried chicken, or grow tangerines! You wanna make money! I'm the only friend you've got. I'm makin' you money. Take the money. Invest it somewhere else. Maybe, maybe you'll get lucky and it'll be used productively. And if it is, you'll create new jobs and provide a service for the economy and, God forbid, even make a few bucks for yourselves. And if anybody asks, tell 'em ya gave at the plant.

And by the way, it pleases me that I'm called 'Larry the Liquidator.' You know why, fellow stockholders? Because at my funeral, you'll leave with a smile on your face and a few bucks in your pocket. Now that's a funeral worth having!"


Clap clap clap... what a speech!

Danny Devito killed it in that movie

COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
obiero
#68 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 5:44:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,557
Location: nairobi
holycow wrote:
This one has defied gravity for now!, stuck at above 9/=

^ your comment sums this discussion..

COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#69 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 1:40:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Back to 10 on decent volumes! 985,000 shares traded is not too shabby.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#70 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 1:46:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
With regard to KK and Total I just have to give the Lawrence Garfield speech in that movie "Other Peoples Money"

"Amen, and amen, and amen. You'll have to forgive me, I'm not familiar with the local custom. Where I come from, you always say 'Amen' after you hear a prayer. Because that's what you just heard - a prayer. Where I come from, that particular prayer is called 'The Prayer for the Dead.' You just heard The Prayer for the Dead, my fellow stockholders, and you didn't say, 'Amen.' This company is dead. I didn't kill it. Don't blame me. It was dead when I got here. It's too late for prayers. For even if the prayers were answered, and a miracle occurred, and the yen did this, and the dollar did that, and the infrastructure did the other thing, we would still be dead! You know why? Fiber optics. New technologies. Obsolescence. We're dead, alright. We're just not broke. And do you know the surest way to go broke? Keep getting an increasing share of a shrinking market. Down the tubes. Slow, but sure.


You know, at one time, there must've been dozens of companies making buggy whips. And I'll bet the last company around was the one that made the best god-damn buggy whip you ever saw. Now how would you have liked to have been a stockholder in that company? You invested in a business and this business is dead. Let's have the intelligence, let's have the decency to sign the death certificate, collect the insurance, and invest in something with a future. 'Ah, but we can't,' goes the prayer. 'We can't because we have responsibility, a responsibility to our employees, to our community. What will happen to them?' I got two words for that - 'Who cares?' Care about them? Why? They didn't care about you. They sucked you dry. You have no responsibility to them. For the last ten years, this company bled your money. Did this community ever say, 'We know times are tough. We'll lower taxes, reduce water and sewer.' Check it out: You're paying twice what you did ten years ago. And our devoted employees, who have taken no increases for the past three years, are still making twice what they made ten years ago. And our stock - one-sixth of what it was ten years ago. 'Who cares?' I'll tell ya -- Me.


I'm not your best friend. I'm your only friend. I don't make anything. I'm makin' you money. And lest we forget, that's the only reason any of you became stockholders in the first place. You wanna make money! You don't care if they manufacture wire and cable, fried chicken, or grow tangerines! You wanna make money! I'm the only friend you've got. I'm makin' you money. Take the money. Invest it somewhere else. Maybe, maybe you'll get lucky and it'll be used productively. And if it is, you'll create new jobs and provide a service for the economy and, God forbid, even make a few bucks for yourselves. And if anybody asks, tell 'em ya gave at the plant.

And by the way, it pleases me that I'm called 'Larry the Liquidator.' You know why, fellow stockholders? Because at my funeral, you'll leave with a smile on your face and a few bucks in your pocket. Now that's a funeral worth having!"

More than KK... it reminds of KQ. The salaries have increased 2x, 3x, 5x when titus naikuni started as CEO. Including his pay. The share price is 11/- AFTER all the inflation since 2003. I think it was 8/- when he became CEO. One would have made more in a Savings Account.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#71 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 1:49:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Mainat wrote:
When something is important to your bottomline, but you are aware that you don't have comparative advantage, outsource. KQ & EA Portland have taken hits, but it seems nobody can learn anything.
Imho, hedging should be outsourced to banks who have the expertise...
Of course, because the banks have the best interests of their clients at heart.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#72 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 4:27:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Mainat wrote:
When something is important to your bottomline, but you are aware that you don't have comparative advantage, outsource. KQ & EA Portland have taken hits, but it seems nobody can learn anything.
Imho, hedging should be outsourced to banks who have the expertise...
Of course, because the banks have the best interests of their clients at heart.


At least it would end up being better than the mess they are in now!

Get ready for more derivative losses in 2013 as the shilling strengthens! I'm sure they tried to hedge the expected election shilling weakness Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Mainat
#73 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 5:11:19 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Mainat wrote:
When something is important to your bottomline, but you are aware that you don't have comparative advantage, outsource. KQ & EA Portland have taken hits, but it seems nobody can learn anything.
Imho, hedging should be outsourced to banks who have the expertise...
Of course, because the banks have the best interests of their clients at heart.


At least it would end up being better than the mess they are in now!

Get ready for more derivative losses in 2013 as the shilling strengthens! I'm sure they tried to hedge the expected election shilling weakness Sad


Guru267-VVS gets emotional about stocks he is invested in so you've to understand the sarcasm in that context. Kitchen-heat and all that...
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Aguytrying
#74 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 9:38:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Lets talk numbers.
1.What does the loss do to the assets of the company?
2.How does it affect the shareholders stake in the company?

bear with my basic questions
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mkonomtupu
#75 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 9:50:44 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Aguytrying wrote:
Lets talk numbers.
1.What does the loss do to the assets of the company?
2.How does it affect the shareholders stake in the company?

bear with my basic questions



KK has some good assets sometime back the management had talked about going into real estate. I hope they can pursue the same instead of selling assets to support a retail business with low margins and price controls. You can't spend good money chasing bad money. If they can't negotiate with the new govt to remove or relax the price controls its best to leave that sector to NOCK to do oil retail business the govt can absorb the losses that come from the inefficiencies in this sector but not private capital. Shareholders want to make money it doesn't matter from which sector. It's time KK management realised this or they surely but slowly go down the tubes
Aguytrying
#76 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 9:59:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
The share price action after announcement of the loss is having me worried. ITs the top gainer today so far at 10.25(5.67%).
I would have been ok with the share getting hammered to 8-9 in the short time, because it would MAKE SENSE!
This doesn't make sense. It leaves me wondering why? why is there so much demand and might the buyers know/or think they know something. Or is it just the cool aid going round at the NSE at the moment.
Either way as a shareholder i feel more at risk now than if the share plummeted. I have this eerily feeling that the music might stop at any time.
Im i alone in this?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
simmons
#77 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:04:26 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/28/2013
Posts: 61
Location: Nairobi s
Aguytrying wrote:
The share price action after announcement of the loss is having me worried. ITs the top gainer today so far at 10.25(5.67%).
I would have been ok with the share getting hammered to 8-9 in the short time, because it would MAKE SENSE!
This doesn't make sense. It leaves me wondering why? why is there so much demand and might the buyers know/or think they know something. Or is it just the cool aid going round at the NSE at the moment.
Either way as a shareholder i feel more at risk now than if the share plummeted. I have this eerily feeling that the music might stop at any time.
Im i alone in this?

Tuko wengi
Never be afraid to try something new.Remeber,amateurs built the ark Professionals built titanic.-Anonymous
stocksmaster
#78 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:10:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Aguytrying wrote:
The share price action after announcement of the loss is having me worried. ITs the top gainer today so far at 10.25(5.67%).
I would have been ok with the share getting hammered to 8-9 in the short time, because it would MAKE SENSE!
This doesn't make sense. It leaves me wondering why? why is there so much demand and might the buyers know/or think they know something. Or is it just the cool aid going round at the NSE at the moment.
Either way as a shareholder i feel more at risk now than if the share plummeted. I have this eerily feeling that the music might stop at any time.
Im i alone in this?


The share action is baffling!! A company making the largest loss in the nse history then within two days its the highest gainer in the nse market.............If you are a shareholder, its a golden opportunity to sell at current prices just incase it a case of a calculated prope up action.

Happy hunting.
VituVingiSana
#79 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:12:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Mainat wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Mainat wrote:
When something is important to your bottomline, but you are aware that you don't have comparative advantage, outsource. KQ & EA Portland have taken hits, but it seems nobody can learn anything.
Imho, hedging should be outsourced to banks who have the expertise...
Of course, because the banks have the best interests of their clients at heart.


At least it would end up being better than the mess they are in now!

Get ready for more derivative losses in 2013 as the shilling strengthens! I'm sure they tried to hedge the expected election shilling weakness Sad


Guru267-VVS gets emotional about stocks he is invested in so you've to understand the sarcasm in that context. Kitchen-heat and all that...
Banks (including the IBs) the world over always look out for #1 aka themselves. See actions of Goldman Sachs e.g. CDOs & MBS sold to their clients while they took the contra position. Who came out ahead?

It is unlikely that KK [or KQ whose CFO, IMHO, was totally clueless about their fuel & forex hedging] went out hedging ovyo ovyo. The chances they had a 'bank consultant/advisor' are very high.

I like the management. A mis-step? Yes. A huge mis-step? Yes. A recovery? I am confident. Another buyer? I except a new buyer in 2014 OR a strategic investor who will bring in cash/financing, connections (supply chain), etc like WPP in ScanGroup.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#80 Posted : Thursday, April 11, 2013 10:18:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mkonomtupu wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Lets talk numbers.
1.What does the loss do to the assets of the company?
2.How does it affect the shareholders stake in the company?

bear with my basic questions



KK has some good assets sometime back the management had talked about going into real estate. I hope they can pursue the same instead of selling assets to support a retail business with low margins and price controls. You can't spend good money chasing bad money. If they can't negotiate with the new govt to remove or relax the price controls its best to leave that sector to NOCK to do oil retail business the govt can absorb the losses that come from the inefficiencies in this sector but not private capital. Shareholders want to make money it doesn't matter from which sector. It's time KK management realised this or they surely but slowly go down the tubes


@mkonomtupu, Could you have even a rough estimate of the true value of KK assets? &why KK choose to convert to historic valuation of the assets? It makes it very difficult to decrypt value in the Balance Sheet which would be good to know incase another takeover comes knocking or when the worst comes knocking
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