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Realities of Forex Investment
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hisah
#2221 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2013 3:04:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This week I stand aside until the BoJ rate decision, which will be followed later in US session by NFP. From the look of things volatility is definitely about to start rocking the boat this month...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2222 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2013 4:28:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Watching gold closely as 1585 gets tested. Failure of this support will force me to close the gold position since it points to sharper declines past 1555 towards 1480 - 1500.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Ceinz
#2223 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2013 5:35:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:
Watching gold closely as 1585 gets tested. Failure of this support will force me to close the gold position since it points to sharper declines past 1555 towards 1480 - 1500.


There is nothing as boring as trading gold. I will drop it off my radar for now.
“small step for man”
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hisah
#2224 Posted : Wednesday, April 03, 2013 5:13:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Ceinz wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watching gold closely as 1585 gets tested. Failure of this support will force me to close the gold position since it points to sharper declines past 1555 towards 1480 - 1500.


There is nothing as boring as trading gold. I will drop it off my radar for now.

Jumped out of gold. This thing is coming down like a falling knife after failing to break 1620. Once 1555 is broken down the downside move will gain momentum towards 1480 - 1500 levels.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2225 Posted : Wednesday, April 03, 2013 7:57:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Gold selloff picking up steam. Critical levels revisited again around 1550 - 1560. A close below 1555 will effectively enforce the downside move.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2226 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 10:49:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Been busy here in the afternoon with BoJ yet again smashing the yen. After USDJPY tested 92.50 support the current rally back above 95.00 confirms that 100 will be the next target. I had inclined towards going long the yen, but BoJ has just kicked me in the teeth. Will have to go short for a while until this devaluation madness dies off...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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loob
#2227 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 1:07:57 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 4/3/2013
Posts: 5
Was short aussie overnight, out this morning...possibly a bit too soon.

Also short the Bund (German bonds), in drawdown at the moment.
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hisah
#2228 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 6:34:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This is what I mean about the yen smash down. USDJPY is back testing the 2013 highs. Heading higher with likely target being 100.00

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Ceinz
#2229 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 8:37:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:
This is what I mean about the yen smash down. USDJPY is back testing the 2013 highs. Heading higher with likely target being 100.00



I don't see it going that far. I see Mr. Market eroding those Boj efforts by as early as end of next week.
“small step for man”
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hisah
#2230 Posted : Friday, April 05, 2013 2:06:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
As long as the BoJ yen debasement madness continues, the best hedge is XAU/JPY.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2231 Posted : Friday, April 05, 2013 3:41:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NFP risk out of the way. Long USDJPY @95.90. Targets open for now. Looking higher than 97.20 (tokyo's high).
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2232 Posted : Friday, April 05, 2013 5:28:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
NFP risk out of the way. Long USDJPY @95.90. Targets open for now. Looking higher than 97.20 (tokyo's high).

Position 1 closed as target gets hit. Position 2 left with stop tightened to 96.00. Still too volatile to be confident about this trade.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2233 Posted : Friday, April 05, 2013 7:35:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Soros Joins Gross in Warning Kuroda Plan Risks Yen Rout - http://www.bloomberg.com...lan-risks-yen-rout.html

Quote:
Billionaire investor George Soros and Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the Bank of Japan (8301)’s plan to end deflation risks weakening the yen.

“If the yen starts to fall, which it has done, and people in Japan realize that it’s liable to continue and want to put their money abroad, then the fall may become like an avalanche,” Soros said today in an interview on CNBC.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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dave.kim
#2234 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 5:41:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
hisah wrote:
Ceinz wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watching gold closely as 1585 gets tested. Failure of this support will force me to close the gold position since it points to sharper declines past 1555 towards 1480 - 1500.


There is nothing as boring as trading gold. I will drop it off my radar for now.

Jumped out of gold. This thing is coming down like a falling knife after failing to break 1620. Once 1555 is broken down the downside move will gain momentum towards 1480 - 1500 levels.

Hold until it breaks range my friend..My position is still open from August last year. Got in at 1650. Swap is messing me up though
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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hisah
#2235 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 8:36:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
dave.kim wrote:
hisah wrote:
Ceinz wrote:
hisah wrote:
Watching gold closely as 1585 gets tested. Failure of this support will force me to close the gold position since it points to sharper declines past 1555 towards 1480 - 1500.


There is nothing as boring as trading gold. I will drop it off my radar for now.

Jumped out of gold. This thing is coming down like a falling knife after failing to break 1620. Once 1555 is broken down the downside move will gain momentum towards 1480 - 1500 levels.

Hold until it breaks range my friend..My position is still open from August last year. Got in at 1650. Swap is messing me up though

I'm already out. Bought in Feb @1557 during the large selloff day and was looking for a break above 1620. Once it failed and 1600 was lost I got out. Picking a bottom is dangerous business so I'll stand aside for now. The lower it goes the better with all the crude banking tactics in euroland, escalating currency wars (yen being the leader this year) as well as commodo brokers going bust after MF Global, the rewards will definitely be outsize when they do come.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2236 Posted : Monday, April 08, 2013 9:37:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NFP risk out of the way. Long USDJPY @95.90. Targets open for now. Looking higher than 97.20 (tokyo's high).

Position 1 closed as target gets hit. Position 2 left with stop tightened to 96.00. Still too volatile to be confident about this trade.

SL raised to 96.80. Scope remains 100, but will be trailing the stop as we approach it above 99.

Still holding EURGBP short from 0.8595 for weeks now. It's taking too long to break down 0.84. I'll close it by end of week if 0.84 still holds.

USD selloff post NFP looks like a fake out. I expect it to recoup the loses by next week. Portugal may be the catalyst. Looking for sizable shorts in their equity market going forward.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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tonicasert
#2237 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 8:32:34 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
FWIW, came across this site http://www.derivativeengines.com/index.aspx
For anyone looking to practice on derivatives. The pricing compares relatively well with Bloomberg.

On FX, staying long USDJPY targeting 99.80 before the all big psychological 100.00 where I expect huge take profits. Also buying EURJPY on dips for 30-40 pips.
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hisah
#2238 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 5:41:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Goldman Sachs lowers gold forecast for 2013, 2014 - http://www.marketwatch.c...or-2013-2014-2013-04-10

Quote:
Analysts at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday lowered their average gold-price forecast for 2013 to $1,545 an ounce from $1,610 expected previously and to $1,350 an ounce from $1,490 in 2014. "Despite resurgence in euro-area risk aversion and disappointing U.S. economic data, gold prices are unchanged over the past month, highlighting how conviction in holding gold is quickly waning," the analysts said in a note.


Just in time from the firm that likes to do "god's work" e.g. selling shitty deals to their clients.

Until $1520 - 1530 is tested, I'm not going long gold. The market is still pushing lower for discounts. Only a break above $1620 will negate the current setup.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2239 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 8:07:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Long XAU/USD @27.65. Something interesting with the buy volume around this level before FOMC meeting minutes later in US afternoon session.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Mkimwa
#2240 Posted : Wednesday, April 10, 2013 9:21:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2008
Posts: 380
Long EURJPY entry at 128, SL at 129. TP 134.2

Will be monitoring and trailing the SL.
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