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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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mwekez@ji wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Coming up, another 4 day trading week with a likely euphoria 3 #MakingMoney2013 Amen! Amen!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji wrote:Interesting, 2009 + 2010 (Bull); 2011 (Bear); 2012 + 2013 (Bull)  .... and still dont rule out that the current bull could be like the 5 year bull that went all the way to 2007 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Interesting, 2009 + 2010 (Bull); 2011 (Bear); 2012 + 2013 (Bull) .... and still dont rule out that the current bull could be like the 5 year bull that went all the way to 2007 I concur. Company fundamentals are strong! We now wait for banks Q1 to see the growth pace GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Interesting, 2009 + 2010 (Bull); 2011 (Bear); 2012 + 2013 (Bull) .... and still dont rule out that the current bull could be like the 5 year bull that went all the way to 2007 MPC would first have to lower cbr in their next sitting as the govt works on the fiscal policies eg cutting Govt expenditure esp recurrent,stimulating exports etc. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Interesting, 2009 + 2010 (Bull); 2011 (Bear); 2012 + 2013 (Bull) .... and still dont rule out that the current bull could be like the 5 year bull that went all the way to 2007 MPC would first have to lower cbr in their next sitting as the govt works on the fiscal policies eg cutting Govt expenditure esp recurrent,stimulating exports etc. The MPC can leave the rate right where it is... Nothing is stopping this bull! I have a feeling all the companies with single digit P/Es on the NSE will very soon become completely unaffordable!!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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@guru,that would be Great. As @YCSUN puts it,the Q1 results will provide growth direction & hopefully, price. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:NSE wrote:Turnover for the four-day trading week declined to Kes.2.51bn from the previous week’s Kes.2.55bn. The number of shares traded stood at 158M against 112M posted the previous week.
The NSE 20 Share Index was up 2.57% during the week to stand at 4985.68 points.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 2.32% during the week to settle at 120.65 points. Closes the week below 5000 after briefly reclaiming it after almost 5yrs. update - coincidentally today's close (4985) after euphoria 2 is where the market topped out during euphoria 1. Am in the school of thought that the euphoria 2 correction should be shallow and 2013 will be a bull, just like 2012 #MadeMoney2012 #MakingMoney2013 The unknown I don't fancy at the moment is the incoming fin min and the treasury direction. My question still remains, will it be austerity or stimulation or a healthy mix now that KRA will miss targets? Markets expand on liquidity expansion. This is not quite clear at the moment. Once the plan for the next 5yrs is known the guesswork is removed. At that point if bullish, as @guru says, single P/E counters disappear and the likes of paka become panthers until the music stop.
I want to see that liquidity deluge that will dismiss that 6161 all time high. And if it comes together with the hydrocarbons commercial package the better to fuel the rocket... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I salute all Chiefs! 2ndly, my Q2 stance is to Hold the lines (no [new] buying/selling*) and find the 'new normal' whereby I concur with @guru on possibilities of double digit p/e & also +5% Div. yields being rare going-forward.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:I salute all Chiefs! 2ndly, my Q2 stance is to Hold the lines (no [new] buying/selling*) and find the 'new normal' whereby I concur with @guru on possibilities of double digit p/e & also +5% Div. yields being rare going-forward. Furthermore, @hisah, expect private sector to go ahead of GoK in activity as we all know that Kenya Vision 2030 is the overall blue print & I don't expect a adverse departure from it in a Jubilee govt.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I salute all Chiefs! 2ndly, my Q2 stance is to Hold the lines (no [new] buying/selling*) and find the 'new normal' whereby I concur with @guru on possibilities of double digit p/e & also +5% Div. yields being rare going-forward. Furthermore, @hisah, expect private sector to go ahead of GoK in activity as we all know that Kenya Vision 2030 is the overall blue print & I don't expect a adverse departure from it in a Jubilee govt. Uhuru targeting 10% economic growth by 2015! If achieved NSE market p/e ratio will definitely be in the 30s! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Those firms holding yen loans.... kaching.... kengen, eapcc... any other?  With the current BoJ debasement madness as they try to fight deflation by throwing the sink into the work, the yen collapse versus other ccys will be crazy. I'm watching the JGB (Jap Gov Bonds) and it's a bloodbath there. I wonder how the longterm holders of yen bonds (pension funds etc) will stay put. Next it'll be cheaper to import jap cars direct via yens than USD. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I salute all Chiefs! 2ndly, my Q2 stance is to Hold the lines (no [new] buying/selling*) and find the 'new normal' whereby I concur with @guru on possibilities of double digit p/e & also +5% Div. yields being rare going-forward. Furthermore, @hisah, expect private sector to go ahead of GoK in activity as we all know that Kenya Vision 2030 is the overall blue print & I don't expect a adverse departure from it in a Jubilee govt. Uhuru targeting 10% economic growth by 2015! If achieved NSE market p/e ratio will definitely be in the 30s! And paka will be at a P/E of 100... That will be all time madness...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,898 Location: nairobi
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you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater*
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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obiero, you had yet another drink at the Exchange bar?;-) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,898 Location: nairobi
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:obiero, you had yet another drink at the Exchange bar?;-)
haha. indeed. i have a lot of information at the moment and i am tryin hard to separate fact from fiction but all indications are that 2013 is going to be a poor year for banks. current stock values across most financial firms will soon be revealed to be unjustified. kuna watu wataachwa uchi hapa when the tide goes out
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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obiero wrote:you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater* This could be true...Q1 could be hit by costs & low loan uptake amid a squeeze in NIM but one can't forecast FY 13 this early....alot could still happen...earnings have been volatile Q\Q mainly due to the cost line.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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obiero wrote:you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater*  Green Bank is not NSE. NSE is the 61 listed companies and NSE still has alot of headroom
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I thought we were through with politics/elections on the economy in Q1?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:I thought we were through with politics/elections on the economy in Q1? Yea ... Q2 should be our gauge
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,898 Location: nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater* Green Bank is not NSE. NSE is the 61 listed companies and NSE still has alot of headroom A good number of big companies are having a rough time. Think EABL, TOTAL, KK, KQ, NBK, CMC, EABL, WTK.. Kuna kitu watu hawaoni..
COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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