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Phil Fisher - Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2013 1:33:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
"[Phil Fisher's] Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, [is] a book that ranks behind only The Intelligent Investor and the 1940 edition of Security Analysis in the all-time-best list for the serious investor."

Of course if you pick up the Wiley Investment Classics edition of the book, you'll see more of Buffett's enthusiasm. A quote from him on the front cover reads: "I am an eager reader of whatever Phil has to say, and I recommend him to you."

With that ringing endorsement in mind, let's take a look at 17 of the best quotes from Fisher's classic. (Nota bene: This does not mean you shouldn't read the entire book!)

1. "The reason why the growth stocks do so much better is that they seem to show gains in value in the hundreds of per cent each decade. In contrast, it is an unusual bargain that is as much as 50 per cent undervalued. The cumulative effect of this simple arithmetic should be obvious."

2. "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is -- almost never."

3. "The amount of mental effort the financial community puts into this constant attempt to guess the economic future from a random and probably incomplete series of facts makes one wonder what might have been accomplished if only a fraction of such mental effort had been applied to something with better chance of proving useful."

4. "Regardless of how high the rating may be in all other matters, however, if there is a serious question of the lack of a strong management sense of trusteeship for stockholders, the investor should never seriously consider participating in such an enterprise."

5. "More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason."

6. "Usually a very long list of securities is not a sign of the brilliant investor, but of one who is unsure of himself."

7. "In what other line of activity could you put $10,000 in one year and ten years later (with only occasional checking in the meantime to be sure management continues of high caliber) be able to have an asset worth from $40,000 to $150,000?"

8. "The company that makes above-average profits while paying above-average wages for the area in which it is located is likely to have good labor relations. The investor who buys into a situation in which a significant part of earnings comes from paying below-standard wages for the area involved may in time have serious trouble on his hands."

9. "The conventional method of timing when to buy stocks is, I believe, just as silly as it appears on the surface to be sensible. This method marshal a vast mass of economic data. From these data conclusions are reached as to the near- and medium-term course of general business."

10. "[Once] a stock has been properly selected and has borne the test of time, it is only occasionally that there is any reason for selling it at all."

11. "When do stockholders get no benefit from retained earnings? One way is when managements pile up cash and liquid assets far beyond any present or prospective needs for the business."

12. "It is only in rare cases even among outstanding corporations that the opportunity for growth is so great that the management cannot afford to pay some part of earnings and still... obtain adequate cash to take advantage of worthwhile growth opportunities."

13. "I believe that the economics which deal with forecasting business trends may be considered to be about as far along as was the science of chemistry during the days of alchemy in the Middle Ages."

14. "Investors have been so oversold on diversification that fear of having too many eggs in one basket has caused them to put far too little into companies that they thoroughly know and far too much into others about which they know nothing at all. It never seems to occur to them, much less their advisors, that buying a company without having sufficient knowledge of it may be even more dangerous than having inadequate diversification."

15. "The ability to see through some majority opinions to find what facts are really there is a trait that can bring rich rewards in the field of common stocks. It is not easy to develop, however, for the composite opinion of those with whom we associate is a powerful influence upon the minds of all of us."

16. "[The] greatest investment reward comes to those who by good luck or good sense find the occasional company that over the years can grow in sales and profits far more than industry as a whole."

17. "[Knowing] the rules and understanding... common mistakes will do nothing to help those who do not have some degree of patience and self-discipline. One of the ablest investment men I have ever known told me many years ago that in the stock market a good nervous system is even more important than a good head."
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Pesa Nane
#2 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2013 3:22:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
VituVingiSana wrote:
"... in the stock market a good nervous system is even more important than a good head."


Ilike.

Ati chief?! mboss coming soon.
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Ceinz
#3 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2013 4:08:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Pesa Nane wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
"... in the stock market a good nervous system is even more important than a good head."


Ilike.


“small step for man”
Aguytrying
#4 Posted : Tuesday, April 02, 2013 4:24:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@VVS. Fantastic quotes. I really like number 17, 15 and 4. It is so true. This is the kinda of book ive been looking for.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Wednesday, April 03, 2013 2:51:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Why Warren Buffett is a billionaire! Just the first two are laden with wisdom.

1. "The reason why the growth stocks do so much better is that they seem to show gains in value in the hundreds of per cent each decade. In contrast, it is an unusual bargain that is as much as 50 per cent undervalued. The cumulative effect of this simple arithmetic should be obvious."

Think Equity vs HFCK over the past 5 years. I recall when HFCK was trading at a discount to BV while Equity was at a higher than average PER (financials) & P/B...

2. "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is -- almost never."

There may be reasons to sell but sometimes, just hold on if you can. Think City Trust which owns part of well-managed I&M Bank. Others include EABL & BAT. Solid well-run firms.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#6 Posted : Wednesday, April 03, 2013 4:01:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
One stock of Berkshire Hathaway is trading at over $157K today, do we have any stock with such intrinsic value. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BRK+A:US
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#7 Posted : Wednesday, April 03, 2013 5:15:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
One stock of Berkshire Hathaway is trading at over $157K today, do we have any stock with such intrinsic value. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BRK+A:US

One W. Buffet dislikes share splits.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Wednesday, April 03, 2013 10:03:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
One stock of Berkshire Hathaway is trading at over $157K today, do we have any stock with such intrinsic value. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BRK+A:US

One W. Buffet dislikes share splits.
It brings in speculators not investors. That said, he did split the shares. See B shares.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 12:43:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Why Warren Buffett is a billionaire! Just the first two are laden with wisdom.

1. "The reason why the growth stocks do so much better is that they seem to show gains in value in the hundreds of per cent each decade. In contrast, it is an unusual bargain that is as much as 50 per cent undervalued. The cumulative effect of this simple arithmetic should be obvious."

Think Equity vs HFCK over the past 5 years. I recall when HFCK was trading at a discount to BV while Equity was at a higher than average PER (financials) & P/B...

2. "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is -- almost never."

There may be reasons to sell but sometimes, just hold on if you can. Think City Trust which owns part of well-managed I&M Bank. Others include EABL & BAT. Solid well-run firms.


There's one big problem with number 1. And that's why its hard to pull off. While it may be not that difficult to identify an undervalued company, that is a good investment case- ie good management, history of growth, low debt etc.
It is very hard to predict/correctly judge how a company will perform into the future say ten years. A miscalculation of even a small percentage leads a big deviation over the years.

For this reason, few excellent investors are able to pull this off. (it helps if you have a controlling stake)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 1:01:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Why Warren Buffett is a billionaire! Just the first two are laden with wisdom.

1. "The reason why the growth stocks do so much better is that they seem to show gains in value in the hundreds of per cent each decade. In contrast, it is an unusual bargain that is as much as 50 per cent undervalued. The cumulative effect of this simple arithmetic should be obvious."

Think Equity vs HFCK over the past 5 years. I recall when HFCK was trading at a discount to BV while Equity was at a higher than average PER (financials) & P/B...

2. "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is -- almost never."

There may be reasons to sell but sometimes, just hold on if you can. Think City Trust which owns part of well-managed I&M Bank. Others include EABL & BAT. Solid well-run firms.


There's one big problem with number 1. And that's why its hard to pull off. While it may be not that difficult to identify an undervalued company, that is a good investment case- ie good management, history of growth, low debt etc.
It is very hard to predict/correctly judge how a company will perform into the future say ten years. A miscalculation of even a small percentage leads a big deviation over the years.

For this reason, few excellent investors are able to pull this off. (it helps if you have a controlling stake)
Hindsight is 20/20 & that's where WB excels. He has a say in the management [he does not manage but can choose/select his managers]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#11 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 3:39:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Why Warren Buffett is a billionaire! Just the first two are laden with wisdom.

1. "The reason why the growth stocks do so much better is that they seem to show gains in value in the hundreds of per cent each decade. In contrast, it is an unusual bargain that is as much as 50 per cent undervalued. The cumulative effect of this simple arithmetic should be obvious."

Think Equity vs HFCK over the past 5 years. I recall when HFCK was trading at a discount to BV while Equity was at a higher than average PER (financials) & P/B...

2. "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is -- almost never."

There may be reasons to sell but sometimes, just hold on if you can. Think City Trust which owns part of well-managed I&M Bank. Others include EABL & BAT. Solid well-run firms.


There's one big problem with number 1. And that's why its hard to pull off. While it may be not that difficult to identify an undervalued company, that is a good investment case- ie good management, history of growth, low debt etc.
It is very hard to predict/correctly judge how a company will perform into the future say ten years. A miscalculation of even a small percentage leads a big deviation over the years.

For this reason, few excellent investors are able to pull this off. (it helps if you have a controlling stake)
Hindsight is 20/20 & that's where WB excels. He has a say in the management [he does not manage but can choose/select his managers]


Very true the story of GEICO insurance and indeed many others come to mind.
One take home i get from most of the great investors is: management. If the management is brilliant you can seldom go wrong, if all the other factors are good.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 7:28:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
@aguy - That's why I have stopped investing in firms where I am not sure about Management. It may be a HUGE bargain but a poor Management can decimate the 'discount' like a hot knife through butter!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#13 Posted : Thursday, April 04, 2013 8:23:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
There is only one reason why Buffet is a Billionaire.. he picks BOTTOMS...he is the master of picking BOTTOMS...weather its earnings, economy...share price etc...
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Friday, April 05, 2013 1:34:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
There is only one reason why Buffet is a Billionaire.. he picks BOTTOMS...he is the master of picking BOTTOMS...weather its earnings, economy...share price etc...
Not really. He picks good firms at REASONABLE prices. If they are cheap, then the better. And he is picky about Management.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#15 Posted : Friday, April 05, 2013 9:53:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
What thaaar........ &%$%^!!!!!!!!

Access AK (Absorutery bure Kabithaar)Kenya ilifika 9bob when??

...unless it's getting bought out..that's a monkey right there!!...faith in it is as misplaced as faith in KTN's Tujuane!!!!!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Mukiri
#16 Posted : Friday, April 05, 2013 10:58:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
ProverB wrote:
What thaaar........ &%$%^!!!!!!!!

Access AK (Absorutery bure Kabithaar)Kenya ilifika 9bob when??

...unless it's getting bought out..that's a monkey right there!!...faith in it is as misplaced as faith in KTN's Tujuane!!!!!

Laughing out loudly One needs a strong stomach to manage the language in Wazua! Susan of South C might just have converted her love of Australian openings to the NSE.

Anyways be prepared for more shock as we go into the swearing in.

Proverbs 19:21
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Friday, April 05, 2013 12:45:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Bids for AK at 9.25 & let's face it the move from 6 to 9 was awesome!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#18 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 1:42:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
AK too rich for my blood. #Pass
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