With the market seeming to have divorced politics from its activities, it is high time i jumped back to this market.

My predictions about KCB hitting Ksh 40 before April 2013 (predicted about 7 months ago:(> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking) seem to have been spot on. I had however exited earlier, based on my cautionary approach regarding the elections. No regrets...... sometimes you have to forgo potential gains in order to preserve capital.

My 1st play for this year is Coop Bank. I have been accumulating it since the beginning of the week at about Ksh 15.

Coop Bank at todays price (Ksh 16.30) is trading at a P/E 8.86 (Compared to Equity - 10.2; KCB - 9.92).

It is also trading at a P/B of about 2.3 which is also lower than the two banks above. It is trading at cum dividend (Dividend of Ksh 0.50 for year ending Dec 2012 which was a 25% rise as compared to dividend for 2011)

Its ROE of about 26% is higher than the sector average of about 23%.

Its Profit after tax (PAT) for year ending Dec 2012 versus Dec 2011 was a rise of 43.7% (compared to Equity PAT 17%; KCB PAT 11%).

It has set a target of doubling its agency network in 2013 from 5,000 to 10,000 agents in Kenya.It is also set to start its South Sudan operations in April 2013 via a joint partnership with the Government of South Sudan. This is a very interesting partnership that should give coop bank a serious competitive advantage in that market.

My price target is a minimum of Ksh 20 once this elections are dusted (a 22% upside potential); and a 12 months target price of Ksh 27.50 based on an estimated EPS of Ksh 2.30 for year ending December 2013.

Happy Hunting.

Twitter:stocksmaster@stocksmaster79

@Stocksmaster - A man of honor. Kept* to his brief. Welcome back.

That for me is a real show of mastery. At the moment I'm still ruing all missed opportunities in my short life.


You don't have to move at every opportunity


"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything -- you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'"

hisah, Equity, from the lows of Jan 2012.

@Hisah. Im the conductor at HFCK boarded at Q3 2012 (diamond thread). Im also looking to speculate with some NBK(crocodile eater)

KCBs of the troughs of similar periods with the Cdes here 11/12 & NBKs of the troughs of Q4 '12.

The peace dividend should push the coop bank share to trade at a p/e of 11-12 (a share price of Ksh 20-22) in the short term.

Happy hunting.

Too much politics ,i had not seen this thread ,let us see how @stockmaster 's strategy works .
I am in HFCK @17.70.....must have got to a top 10 holding on this one .
Pan afric @ 46 and Britak @6.7(although i sold half of it at 9.30).... 8% cash position which i hope i can deploy on Tue .

@Sparkly: We still hav 2 months before trials......With the foreign powers softening, the USD play may not yield much unless they abscond appearances. The risk for the nse shares market will come from the GoK hunger for cash.

The jubilee govt inheriting of a broke treasury and a KRA unable to hit its targets versus huge devolution costs and a need to implement an ambitious manifesto will surely bring the fixed income and money markets into play especially in the 2nd half of the year.

But in the nxt few weeks, the peace dividend will be paid to the wise investor.

Happy hunting.

One can hedge 33.33% of their total NSE portfolio in USD to completely protect themselves from euphoria!!