Wazua
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Been observing JSE at all time highs and fearing for a hard selloff just from the chart pattern and volume. Even without bothering with the econ, which points to an overvalued rand. The put holding things pretty is the ching card. Remove that and the econ over valuation will swiftly be corrected. The fact that some SA firms are looking to relocate their HQs to EA region is a clear red light...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Zim has caught the eye of the emirates 
Btw dig around for SWF for arabic states. Those funds are super size chasing handsome yields where possible as emerging markets out perform traditional markets. OK. Thanks for the heads up & I hope they can put in work on the Electricity side too...vast coal reserves, will keep an eye on them for sure.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Been observing JSE at all time highs and fearing for a hard selloff just from the chart pattern and volume. Even without bothering with the econ, which points to an overvalued rand. The put holding things pretty is the ching card. Remove that and the econ over valuation will swiftly be corrected. The fact that some SA firms are looking to relocate their HQs to EA region is a clear red light...
Interesting & a comment on your closing is I've never believed the jingle that RSA is the gate-way to Africa. No. Kenya is the gateway to ECOWAS & COMESA (The Hub - Land, Air, Water). RSA is the Investment Banker of Africa and Zim the Hub of SADC, check on a map.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hisah wrote:Been observing JSE at all time highs and fearing for a hard selloff just from the chart pattern and volume. Even without bothering with the econ, which points to an overvalued rand. The put holding things pretty is the ching card. Remove that and the econ over valuation will swiftly be corrected. The fact that some SA firms are looking to relocate their HQs to EA region is a clear red light...
Which SA firm is looking to relocate its HQ? Expansion is a different word from relocation bro...The Rand was overvalued at 6.5-7 to the Dollar its now trading in its normal range...a couple of years ago the Rand used to trade at double digits to the Dollar...SA eats from both plates...Europe slumps...China pops up...now the push is into the rest of Africa to support the manufacturing base...I'm worried about the future of Kenyan manufacturers...will they survive the upcoming tariff hike by Kenya Power? My bet most will relocate to SA like cadbury did a couple of years back.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:hisah wrote:Been observing JSE at all time highs and fearing for a hard selloff just from the chart pattern and volume. Even without bothering with the econ, which points to an overvalued rand. The put holding things pretty is the ching card. Remove that and the econ over valuation will swiftly be corrected. The fact that some SA firms are looking to relocate their HQs to EA region is a clear red light...
Which SA firm is looking to relocate its HQ? Expansion is a different word from relocation bro...The Rand was overvalued at 6.5-7 to the Dollar its now trading in its normal range...a couple of years ago the Rand used to trade at double digits to the Dollar...SA eats from both plates...Europe slumps...China pops up...now the push is into the rest of Africa to support the manufacturing base...I'm worried about the future of Kenyan manufacturers...will they survive the upcoming tariff hike by Kenya Power? My bet most will relocate to SA like cadbury did a couple of years back. Financial rumour mills about office switch point to standard bank. This EA hydrocarbon game is creating shifts everyday. The greed! I'm also wait to see this. If you remove the china put then SA is at a crossfire. What I mean is the market hasn't priced that outlier if chingland slumps, which is possible with another GFC shock.
As for KE the looming power hike is badly timed to say the least. The UK is also on the same script. Both econs are on a slump. How do you hike such a core econ component during an econ slump? Madness this. If pushed through, the econ squeeze on KE won't be funny & NSE will have to price that. As you state some firms might just relocate in protest.
Bulgaria is a fresh example of the worst case scenario when gubberment is at parallel reality with the people. Bulgaria hiked power bills by a huge margin & sh** hit the fan less than a year later. Script was hike taxes then hike power. Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy on a similar script with high jobless rate, revolt cocktail.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Back to real history rewriting - Slave trade was a major revenue earner for the British Empire - http://www.independent.c...-abolition-8508358.html Now look at those families that were beneficiaries of slave trade. Convoluted planet we live in... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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New ICT fund'Intelligent Sprayer'@hisah - Its like they want to stir up the OWS movement again and its been silent so far. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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"When it rains it pours..." MAU MAU CASE: DEALING WITH PAST COLONIAL INJUSTICES http://www.khrc.or.ke/me...colonial-injustices.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mainat - this is what I meant. Stated back on Feb 9th 2013.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:A huge bet by someone that the SPDR ETF will tank. The put option expires in April - http://online.barrons.co...578287852685209978.html SPDR ETF tracks banking stocks and such a giant bet is quite something and that trader is quite confident that the ETF will tank! Another options trader has bet 11M on VIX calls that expires in 60 days - http://www.businessinsid...n-on-big-vix-bet-2013-2 These 2 option trades are massive. With US equity indices (Dow and S&P) scaling pre GFC levels, such bets hint at near term selloff. Caution... Stated back on Feb 9 2013.
Methinks global market are just about to put in a meaningful top from March and at pre GFC & with some at all time highs, very ripe fattening this... Already the reversal has started with volatility spiking.
VIX one day volume spikes to record - http://seekingalpha.com/...alls?source=google_news
Volatility storms have made a land fall on the equity shores.
I had posted the spanish IBEX35 chart 2 weeks back as it hinted to a looming breakdown. The Italian equities too had a similar pattern. The breakdown has been worsened by their election smokescreen.
Meanwhile gold has recovered some of the hard selloff (shakeout) last week which smashed prices to $1555 support level as weak hands jumped ship. The price is back above $1600. Market manipulation at its best... I expect gold to finish the year at new all time highs against all odds! Volume spread says so... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@hisah If this is the expected SWF action, then nimekubali... http://www.herald.co.zw/...p-stories&Itemid=130
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Yeeeess.... Now imagine the SSA play... Then nairobi financial hub combining both west, middle east and asia. Do you see the $$$
Yet peeps are just looking at politics. This money train will leave many passengers at the station. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Yeeeess.... Now imagine the SSA play... Then nairobi financial hub combining both west, middle east and asia. Do you see the $$$
Yet peeps are just looking at politics. This money train will leave many passengers at the station. Roger that..and if today's USD/KES moves are a hint then we have a trick for import inflation & when oil mkts can also track other base resources then we'll see magic this year...but until then, "One more road to cross..one more risk to take..gotta live my life like it's one more move to make..." - D [and good rains both seasons]
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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hisah, REE prices have taken a hammering over the past year. Do you see them going back up this year? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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 He's made my morning.You have an MBA but you don't know any 'African' languages. Countries he noted: Angola,Ethiopia,Tanzania,Congo.3 are kinda in our region.That says something.I wonder what he is seeing in Tz that got his attention. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/1/2010 Posts: 272 Location: Nairobi
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Mobius Says Kenya Investment Prospects Outweigh Vote Risk http://www.bloomberg.com...-outweigh-vote-risk.htmlThe harder you work, the luckier you get
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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[quote=kryptonite]Mobius Says Kenya Investment Prospects Outweigh Vote Risk http://www.bloomberg.com...outweigh-vote-risk.html[/quote] The only time I'll be afraid about Kenya's prospects is when Tz change their education system and improve on their infrastructure. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/1/2010 Posts: 272 Location: Nairobi
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ChessMaster wrote:[quote=kryptonite]Mobius Says Kenya Investment Prospects Outweigh Vote Risk http://www.bloomberg.com...outweigh-vote-risk.html[/quote] The only time I'll be afraid about Kenya's prospects is when Tz change their education system and improve on their infrastructure. Agreed. They need to improve on their work ethic as well The harder you work, the luckier you get
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