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Estimated 71 Billion Barrels...
josimar
#721 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 4:58:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/6/2010
Posts: 242
2,850 barrels per day of crude from one well quite low , only consolation is that it is a pointer of oil prescence in the area. Most important thing is to struck oil and prove feasible deposits. To me the offshore Coast of Somalia and the next major oil hotspot.
kryptonite
#722 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 5:06:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
Kryptonite this is twiga not ngamia, and thats just one well...more to go


Thanks Murchr. I know, I'm just being impatient...
The harder you work, the luckier you get
Obi 1 Kanobi
#723 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 8:56:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
The daily production sounds ok. How come they are not telling us how many barrells they have down there or for how long it will produce the 2,850 BPD.

My google research reaveals that the average Saudi oil field produces 6,000 BPD while at the lower end, stripper wells in texas give only 4 BPD. That makes the projected flow of 2,850 good (assuming Saudi is floating on oil)

Now as to the life of the well, will depend on the size of the basin, but minimum I am seeing on the web is mostly 15 years.

So to estimate the oil quantity

Quantity = BPD X period

2,850 X 330 X 15 = 14,107,500

So this well potentially has 14 million recoverable barrells. Nearly not enough but promising.

@Hisah, please take over and show me how we get to 71 billion barrells
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
murchr
#724 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 9:08:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
The daily production sounds ok. How come they are not telling us how many barrells they have down there or for how long it will produce the 2,850 BPD.

My google research reaveals that the average Saudi oil field produces 6,000 BPD while at the lower end, stripper wells in texas give only 4 BPD. That makes the projected flow of 2,850 good (assuming Saudi is floating on oil)

Now as to the life of the well, will depend on the size of the basin, but minimum I am seeing on the web is mostly 15 years.

So to estimate the oil quantity

Quantity = BPD X period

2,850 X 330 X 15 = 14,107,500

So this well potentially has 14 million recoverable barrells. Nearly not enough but promising.

@Hisah, please take over and show me how we get to 71 billion barrells


Remember this is one well...Twiga..whose results people thot were not as good since it had 30m oil pay, Ngamia had 140m and has not been tested yet...there's pai pai, Kamba etc etc..
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#725 Posted : Thursday, February 14, 2013 6:16:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Quote:
So, from the bottom up, we have already conducted 2 tests on the tight reservoir rock at the bottom of the well which failed to produce commercial flow rates but reconfirmed the presence of moveable oil as they had previously during from 1 MDT. Encouraging news and with some work this could produce in my opinion.

Of the other 2 tests which were conducted on the shallower Auwerwer Sandstone section we have 1,860bopd that flowed naturally without pumping and 491bopd using a Progressive Cavity Pump.

What I would have liked to know here is which interval flowed at what rate reported. Was the interval which flowed less using the pump test #3 as detailed on the presentation above or was it test #4?

In the oil industry Progressive Cavity Pumps are used to control the flow of the oil to ensure the rate of the flow is consistent and manageable. The benefit of Progressive Cavity Pumps is that it is possible to move oil along at a slower rate while applying varying rates of pressure to the oil. These type of pumps are commonly used when dealing with heavy oil (<20API) and we have produced, at Twiga-1, 37API which is certainly not heavy oil and, in my opinion, 491bopd using a Progressive Cavity Pump for 37API oil is being significantly controlled/restricted.

We have 1 more test ongoing which will also use a Progressive Cavity Pump and the operators anticipate that this test will flow over 500bopd. In my opinion Tullow are in total control of the rate this test will flow at. That already have 1,860bopd that flowed naturally without pumping and (controlled/restricted) 491bopd using a Progressive Cavity Pump.

If they want 501bopd or 1,859bopd and above from this test is their decision.

In my opinion the oil in the Auwerwer Sandstone section is very good and although pure speculation on my part this is what I think is happened.

Starting from the bottom up as I said previously, using the detail on page 11 of the latest AOI presentation in relation to today's news.

Test #1 and #2 on the deeper section -

1 test conducted without a pump around the depth oil was previously recovered from MDT which failed to produce decent quantity. Next test using a pump also failed to produce decent quantity.

Test #3 and #4 on the Auwerwer Sandstone section -

Deepest test on this section and closest to the non producing section was conducted still using the pump given the previous unproductive tests gives 491bopd controlled/restricted. The next test, shallower, is a test to see what it can do naturally without the pump and it gives a very respectable 1,860bopd.

Test #5 on the which is ongoing.

On the shallowest test to be conducted. Given that we now have 491bopd controlled/restricted with pump and 1,860bopd flowing naturally lets stick the pump (control) back on because we know we can produce over 500bopd which is what we told the market but we could also "tweak" more and if we produce more we have impressed the market but also carefully bearing in mind that the elections are coming!

I think this last test has the potential to be the best test yet at Twiga-1 and Tullow are in total control of the flow rate. Look at the shallow depths and flow rates in Uganda, look at the initial discovery depth at Ngamia-1, look at the shallow play prospects on 10BB and look at the mention of the "light rig for flow testing activities".


We are on our way!
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#726 Posted : Thursday, February 14, 2013 7:07:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
The daily production sounds ok. How come they are not telling us how many barrells they have down there or for how long it will produce the 2,850 BPD.

My google research reaveals that the average Saudi oil field produces 6,000 BPD while at the lower end, stripper wells in texas give only 4 BPD. That makes the projected flow of 2,850 good (assuming Saudi is floating on oil)

Now as to the life of the well, will depend on the size of the basin, but minimum I am seeing on the web is mostly 15 years.

So to estimate the oil quantity

Quantity = BPD X period

2,850 X 330 X 15 = 14,107,500

So this well potentially has 14 million recoverable barrells. Nearly not enough but promising.

@Hisah, please take over and show me how we get to 71 billion barrells

Would you go through the headache of building a pipeline, build more refineries, a new port, an isiolo city, a nairobi financial hub, a heavy road network at the north, the largest wind power firm in Africa at the north, import power from ethiopia, Geothermal frenzy, test offshore blocks, plan for natgas infrastructure etc just to pump 500bopd? How would it pay itself?

Stay focussed for this EA play!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#727 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 10:33:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/iwpy3pz/-/index.html

http://www.theeastafrica...8/-/ov4200z/-/index.html
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Nabwire
#728 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 11:23:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Thanks Murchr, just wondering which insurance covers Tullow and Africa oil. I think its wise to invest in these insurers before commercial viability is ascertained.
hisah
#729 Posted : Thursday, February 21, 2013 3:02:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Quote:
Tullow Oil plc (“Tullow”) announces the successful completion of the flow tests at Twiga South-1 with a constrained combined rate of 2,812 bopd from three reservoir zones. Unconstrained, the combined rate has the potential to flow at around 5,200 bopd. In Uganda, the Ondyek-1 exploration well did not encounter hydrocarbons.

These results provide encouragement for the forthcoming testing program at Ngamia-1A, Block 10BB, where four zones are planned to be tested using the Weatherford 804 rig. Testing activities are expected to commence in March and complete by the end of May.


http://www.tullowoil.com...mp;tags=&newsid=833
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
wanyee
#730 Posted : Thursday, February 21, 2013 4:19:57 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
the numbers
http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=137
21 Feb 2013
East Africa exploration and appraisal update

Tullow Oil plc (“Tullow”) announces the successful completion of the flow tests at Twiga South-1 with a constrained combined rate of 2,812 bopd from three reservoir zones. Unconstrained, the combined rate has the potential to flow at around 5,200 bopd. In Uganda, the Ondyek-1 exploration well did not encounter hydrocarbons.
murchr
#731 Posted : Saturday, February 23, 2013 4:13:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
http://www.bloomberg.com...kenyan-extension-1-.html
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Nabwire
#732 Posted : Saturday, February 23, 2013 7:39:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Murchr didnt know Nomura holdings was interested, thats a very well respected company. Kweli hii mafuta ni mingi, Hisah we owe you alot!
Obi 1 Kanobi
#733 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 10:30:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
Yes,it must be alot of oil to attract the interest of giants like Nomura.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
youcan'tstopusnow
#734 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 9:17:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Nigeria losing ground in changing oil world
Nigeria loses $6 billion
annually to crude theft,
offshore piracy is on the rise and oil majors say it's operating costs are among the most expensive globally.
"A big issue is that the
growing East African oil and gas industry will prove to be a serious competitor, especially given its proximity to key Asian markets compared to Nigeria."
http://mobile.reuters.co...91O0QF20130225?irpc=932
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#735 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 8:32:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Election worries put new
Kenya oil, gas investment
on hold
http://in.mobile.reuters...0BPBXS20130226?irpc=932
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#736 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 8:40:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Election worries put new
Kenya oil, gas investment
on hold
http://in.mobile.reuters...0BPBXS20130226?irpc=932

A nice time to buy fear. We sell greed immediately peace is proclaimed post March 4th!

#makingmoney2013
@SufficientlyP
murchr
#737 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 8:42:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Election worries put new
Kenya oil, gas investment
on hold
http://in.mobile.reuters...0BPBXS20130226?irpc=932


The article
Quote:
Canada's Simba Energy estimates its block in northeast Kenya sits atop 1 billion barrels of oil, but it needs investors to help stump up the cash.

"I really, really want to drill in 2013. I was prepared to commit to 2D seismic but had to consider feedback from some of our potential farm-in partners," Hassan Hassan, Simba's chief operating officer said in an interview.

"We've decided to wait, but believe me it pains me to wait," he added.....
Tullow's venture partner, Africa Oil, estimates there are 23 billion barrels of oil beneath two onshore basins that extend from southern Ethiopia to the southwestern tip of Kenya.

If proven, that would make Kenya the 13th-largest holder of oil reserves in the world, above the United States. At today's oil prices the reserves would be worth $2.6 trillion, more than 60 times Kenya's 2012 gross domestic product.



Drool
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
kryptonite
#738 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 10:33:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Election worries put new
Kenya oil, gas investment
on hold
http://in.mobile.reuters...0BPBXS20130226?irpc=932


The article
Quote:
Canada's Simba Energy estimates its block in northeast Kenya sits atop 1 billion barrels of oil, but it needs investors to help stump up the cash.

"I really, really want to drill in 2013. I was prepared to commit to 2D seismic but had to consider feedback from some of our potential farm-in partners," Hassan Hassan, Simba's chief operating officer said in an interview.

"We've decided to wait, but believe me it pains me to wait," he added.....
Tullow's venture partner, Africa Oil, estimates there are 23 billion barrels of oil beneath two onshore basins that extend from southern Ethiopia to the southwestern tip of Kenya.

If proven, that would make Kenya the 13th-largest holder of oil reserves in the world, above the United States. At today's oil prices the reserves would be worth $2.6 trillion, more than 60 times Kenya's 2012 gross domestic product.



Drool


That's more like it! smile
The harder you work, the luckier you get
murchr
#739 Posted : Friday, March 01, 2013 3:31:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#740 Posted : Friday, March 01, 2013 8:00:58 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Potential 3.7 billion barrels at block L6 in Lamu basin as per Pancontinental estimates - http://www.theeastafrica...6/-/iuqk8x/-/index.html

Many people are still very skeptical about this mega EA game. And I hope it stays that way.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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