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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
murchr
#2391 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 7:09:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
ChessMaster wrote:
We also have to consider what someone said(can't remember who),foreign investors might be locals operating via proxy.


I dont think so....the rally is not only here in Kenya but Ghana and Nigeria too..
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
the deal
#2392 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 7:12:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
murchr wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
We also have to consider what someone said(can't remember who),foreign investors might be locals operating via proxy.


I dont think so....the rally is not only here in Kenya but Ghana and Nigeria too..

its a global rally...guys running away from 0% yields in advanced markets.
ChessMaster
#2393 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 7:16:34 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
the deal wrote:
murchr wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
We also have to consider what someone said(can't remember who),foreign investors might be locals operating via proxy.


I dont think so....the rally is not only here in Kenya but Ghana and Nigeria too..

its a global rally...guys running away from 0% interests in advanced markets.



I learnt a lot from Wazua. Vituvingisana and the quote that constantly haunts me and guides me - "Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett".If its global I'm scared.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
hisah
#2394 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 7:28:02 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
Plain and simple. Wanjikus will never influence Mr Market.

Wanjiku expects $=100 & NSE to selloff hard. Mr Market always likes to disappoint herd mentality.

Unless there is an outsize market event, the herd is highly likely to be disappointed.

I have put my skin on the line since Nov 2012 despite the glaring risks and fear parade. I stand unmoved unless a market event forces me to jump ship.

Emerging markets vs global main markets, the latter promises faster outsize performance for a decade at least.


Wanjiku left the market in Dec and came rushing back after the local dailys started beating the drums on how the market is rallying.

I foresee the foreign investors holding back a bit but time might prove me wrong.


Those blue chip volume spikes are not Wanjikus. They're currently distracted by fever pitch politics with a fear of the market since politics looks ugly.

Wanjiku maniac will come and stock threads will be plenty with crazy price targets. Brokers can hardly wait for that period - commissions bash.

That said NSE is currently not a wanjikus haven. Loans also need to get cheaper for them to borrow more or hold more than one loan. In short when wanjiku gets that liquid, run from the market.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
ChessMaster
#2395 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 7:31:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
Plain and simple. Wanjikus will never influence Mr Market.

Wanjiku expects $=100 & NSE to selloff hard. Mr Market always likes to disappoint herd mentality.

Unless there is an outsize market event, the herd is highly likely to be disappointed.

I have put my skin on the line since Nov 2012 despite the glaring risks and fear parade. I stand unmoved unless a market event forces me to jump ship.

Emerging markets vs global main markets, the latter promises faster outsize performance for a decade at least.


Wanjiku left the market in Dec and came rushing back after the local dailys started beating the drums on how the market is rallying.

I foresee the foreign investors holding back a bit but time might prove me wrong.


Those blue chip volume spikes are not Wanjikus. They're currently distracted by fever pitch politics with a fear of the market since politics looks ugly.

Wanjiku maniac will come and stock threads will be plenty with crazy price targets. Brokers can hardly wait for that period - commissions bash.

That said NSE is currently not a wanjikus haven. Loans also need to get cheaper for them to borrow more or hold more than one loan. In short when wanjiku gets that liquid, run from the market.


I agree hisah. Plus the shilling losing ground makes the NSE more appealing to foreign investors.IMO.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
Cde Monomotapa
#2396 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 9:23:38 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
[+28% Jan-to-date] ZSE:- Industrials advance to record levels on renewed interest in blue chips http://www.herald.co.zw/...business&Itemid=133
mlennyma
#2397 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 8:27:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Fear has caughtup with me iam exiting nse in a big way tomorrow,i will chase them if things dont turn ugly.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
obiero
#2398 Posted : Sunday, February 24, 2013 11:27:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,322
Location: nairobi
ChessMaster wrote:
obiero wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
murchr wrote:
Where are those who were saying that the markets wont feel the fever?

We are heresmile So were's the fever in Mpesa & simba? Btw the fever will only be/is only on selected stocks,those without strong fundamentals & will be pronounced from March 4th esp if there's a contested election. It will be time to take a plunge,& a really big one!!!! Dont be left out!

#makingmoney2013

a number of firm's stock prices are still way higher than they were at the end of Q4 2012 hence buyin in Q1 was a good move. And I ask, if everyone is to sell who remains? The answer is the long termer and institutional investors. These two groups will provide price stability even in a contested election, esp for stocks with strong fundamentals.. IMO, only local people with very few shares individually and some short-term-profit-hungry foreigners are selling at the moment


Institutional investors - pension funds and insurance(among others),are forced to participate in the market.There I agree with you. But what are 'high prices'?

I do not see where the term 'high prices' is written in the dialogue, but I believe it may reflect on an aspect such as 52week price highs on shares such as EABL, KCB, SCOM, HFCK, CITY etc
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2399 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 12:32:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mlennyma wrote:
Fear has caughtup with me iam exiting nse in a big way tomorrow,i will chase them if things dont turn ugly.

No problem,you can always buy them back from me!
@SufficientlyP
hisah
#2400 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 11:17:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
A host of mixed sets of result announcement so far. Losses, profit dips and some profits. The econ is still squeaking... More stimulus needed.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
570 Pages«<238239240241242>»
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