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Kengen has bolted!
the deal
#161 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 2:04:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Aguytrying wrote:
the deal wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@cde. My take home message here is. Kengens earnings stay as they are for the medium term with growth coming from wind.
Geothermal growth will not attributable to shareholders only existing capacity. I dont expect the company to create other geothermal plants other than those in the ABB in the foreseable future.


So we are left with kengen as it is, but with reduced earnings growth prospect. Kengen as it is is grossly undervalued so it still remains a good fair value play for me, however the pot has been unsweetened.
Lets await managements details BD has its challenges.

Hmmm you seem not to understand what an ABS is? How has the pot been unsweetened? The pot has just been sweetened...the risk was how they're going to execute the whole geothermal thing and the finance part was the main hurdle.


Unsweetened because. Earnings growth for shareholders isnow reduced. Reduced because the new geothermal proceeds will now go to service the bond. Get it?

Not true at all...they did the PIBO...KES25Billion did it reduce earnings or enhance them? do you know the differance between this bond and the PIBO?
Kausha
#162 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:20:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@deal, stop being a twat, if you have any ounce of financial knowledge you will understand what I am telling you. Stop also misleading the forum, Kenya does not import power from Uganda, Uganda has a shortfall of more than 50%. The Ethopian power project is far from completion, we don't even have a power line past Moyale than can carry that power. We even struggle to evacuate power from Mombasa to Nairobi...Do your research beyond Business Daily. Geothermal is very expensive power my friend it's more expensive than hydo and wind. Also it's more expensive in set up than thermal but agreeably cheaper to operate than thermal. You can check with Kengen for accuracy of this fact. You also appear to have missed an edition of your favorite Business Daily, Global Carbon credit business collapsed the other day, the prices are down 70% and next to nothing. Indeed lets compare notes and I will be here to remind you when scandal or two in your beloved company are exposed!!
Aguytrying
#163 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:44:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040


Answer me this. To whom will the earnings of the new geothermal plants financed by the asset backed bond be attributable to?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
the deal
#164 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:51:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Kausha wrote:
@deal, stop being a twat, if you have any ounce of financial knowledge you will understand what I am telling you. Stop also misleading the forum, Kenya does not import power from Uganda, Uganda has a shortfall of more than 50%. The Ethopian power project is far from completion, we don't even have a power line past Moyale than can carry that power. We even struggle to evacuate power from Mombasa to Nairobi...Do your research beyond Business Daily. Geothermal is very expensive power my friend it's more expensive than hydo and wind. Also it's more expensive in set up than thermal but agreeably cheaper to operate than thermal. You can check with Kengen for accuracy of this fact. You also appear to have missed an edition of your favorite Business Daily, Global Carbon credit business collapsed the other day, the prices are down 70% and next to nothing. Indeed lets compare notes and I will be here to remind you when scandal or two in your beloved company are exposed!!

Naah I'm just exposing you....On page 1 of the Retail tariff application by Kenya Power of 7 February 2013 states that Kenya Power...Kenya's sole electricity distributor imports power from Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia so take your nonsense somewhere else ama you know better than Kenya Power? you been peddling crap about KenGen ever since you came to this forum...none of your illusions has come to pass...keep trying.
Kausha
#165 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 4:06:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@deal you know if you are staff or management I would understand you headstrong blinded loyalty. Look, I invest in several counters and I am also invested in the PIBO. What I am telling you from experience and not blinded sentiment on a company is that Kengen is on value destructive path. They took money in 2009 and promised revenue and dividend growth by 2012. Look at the prospectus if you have it. Compare their projections on the IM and their results, they were off mark in 2011 and 2012 and in 2013 they are supposed to have a huge leap in earnings and I don't have to wait until September to know they will be off the mark. I am judging Kengen on their management forecasts and not Business Daily lazy journalism numbers. Pick you phone and call KPLC and they will tell you THEY DON'T IMPORT from Uganda, but Uganda is listed as a supplier because on those off days when Uganda has lower loads on Owen falls dam grid they typically would throw some surplus to Busia to because there is a high KVA line to Busia, otherwise if they had other outlets to Uganda they would send the power there. You surely can't go and say now we import power from Uganda can you? I have no illusions and if you go back to 2009 I was one of those very optimistic Kengen investors until they started missing forecasts and I started seeing them pack debt at stupefying levels and I suddenly discovered management are running a very different strategy to what they sold to investors. Unless you are management of Kengen, I don't see why you are arguing against numbers with poorly researched stories and moronic netiquette! Go bring your numbers and lets have discourse like civilized beings! and please don't bring for us Business daily stories we all know how and when these are written!
the deal
#166 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 4:06:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Aguytrying wrote:


Answer me this. To whom will the earnings of the new geothermal plants financed by the asset backed bond be attributable to?

A bond is like a loan...offcourse revenues generated from this geothermal fields would be greater than the interest payments on the bond...after paying off the interest where will the money be going? to KenGen offcourse....its one the reasons Kenya Power is asking for a tariff hike...to be able to buy this new power...to be able to invest in infstructure to support this new power.
the deal
#167 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 4:24:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Kausha wrote:
@deal you know if you are staff or management I would understand you headstrong blinded loyalty. Look, I invest in several counters and I am also invested in the PIBO. What I am telling you from experience and not blinded sentiment on a company is that Kengen is on value destructive path. They took money in 2009 and promised revenue and dividend growth by 2012. Look at the prospectus if you have it. Compare their projections on the IM and their results, they were off mark in 2011 and 2012 and in 2013 they are supposed to have a huge leap in earnings and I don't have to wait until September to know they will be off the mark. I am judging Kengen on their management forecasts and not Business Daily lazy journalism numbers. Pick you phone and call KPLC and they will tell you THEY DON'T IMPORT from Uganda, but Uganda is listed as a supplier because on those off days when Uganda has lower loads on Owen falls dam grid they typically would throw some surplus to Busia to because there is a high KVA line to Busia, otherwise if they had other outlets to Uganda they would send the power there. You surely can't go and say now we import power from Uganda can you? I have no illusions and if you go back to 2009 I was one of those very optimistic Kengen investors until they started missing forecasts and I started seeing them pack debt at stupefying levels and I suddenly discovered management are running a very different strategy to what they sold to investors. Unless you are management of Kengen, I don't see why you are arguing against numbers with poorly researched stories and moronic netiquette! Go bring your numbers and lets have discourse like civilized beings! and please don't bring for us Business daily stories we all know how and when these are written!

I'm not bringing you business daily stories...I'm a value investor who knows when to buy a company....I used to track KenGen back in 2009 I remember telling folks here the right time to buy was coming...last year. when the buying time came, cross checked my figures then made my move...bought a huge stake at 7.40! Dividend yield at that price 8.1%...management makes forecasts...I make mine too...its not unusual for a company to underperform forecasts. ..I know KenGen very well...if you were not rude and so indulged in your thinking which informed you to buy KenGen at 2009 prices then I would share a few facts with you...for now let me rest my. case....lets compare notes going forward.
Kausha
#168 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 4:31:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@ deal you are poorly informed. KPLC wants the tarriff so that they can ramp in about USD 1 billion in debt replace the existing grid which is past it's grid life and also expand distribution infrastructure to improve quality of power and minimise sytem losses. The grid can nolonger hold. Look at it this way the grid we are on in similar fashion as the sewarage system of nairobi was built to support a certain number of users and appliances. Urbanization, population growth, industrialization means the grid is several thousand multiples stretched and has also aged. Now they reorganized their equity last year but that stills leaves debt service unresolved which is what they are resolving now. Expect KPLC to pack up 30B by december from IFC, KFW, Opic by December once the tarriffs are raised. If you are still waiting for KPLC to pay more for Kengen power, utashangaaa! utaketi hapo hapo tu, kwani unafikiri utabebwa na nani hakuuuna...bure kabisa!
berns
#169 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 4:34:26 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/8/2013
Posts: 27
@the deal and kausha,lets use the forum constructively. No need being abusive(you started kausha). You 'd be shocked that the ones making the most money from equities dont have as much indepth knowledge as the two of you. I think you sometimes just need experience over time to know the psycological behaviour of stock punters.Look at whats going on now! Dont tell me the bear run on most counters is down to fundamentals.Most likely election jitters.
sparkly
#170 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 4:36:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
The interests of GOK, the main shareholder are not necessarily congruent with the rest of the shareholder. While the GOK has an infinite lifespan the Wanjikus will die one day. Wanjikus want to eat some of their money and leave the rest for their children.

Kengen is diluting the equity shareholders at a very fast rate.
Life is short. Live passionately.
the deal
#171 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 4:43:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
sparkly wrote:
The interests of GOK, the main shareholder are not necessarily congruent with the rest of the shareholder. While the GOK has an infinite lifespan the Wanjikus will die one day. Wanjikus want to eat some of their money and leave the rest for their children.

Kengen is diluting the equity shareholders at a very fast rate.

I believe KenGen is creating value to its shareholders at a very fast rate for the kind of business theyre in...its a market Wanjiku can dump his shares and walk away.

Page 38 of the 2012 Annual Report...is talking about energy trade as the next big thing...Southern African power pool...East Africa power pool interconnection....Kengen is not only Kenya.. its Africa folks.
murchr
#172 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 4:44:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Kausha please read the kplc report
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
ChessMaster
#173 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 7:05:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
This is what I believe when it comes to Kengen. They are generating power which in Africa is a huge growth market. They are the major supplier of KPLC. I don't care about earnings or dividends because they are investing in assets. At the end of the day,they are focusing on their business.The money will follow.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
Mukiri
#174 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 7:40:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
berns wrote:
@the deal and kausha,lets use the forum constructively. No need being abusive(you started kausha). You 'd be shocked that the ones making the most money from equities dont have as much indepth knowledge as the two of you. I think you sometimes just need experience over time to know the psycological behaviour of stock punters.Look at whats going on now! Dont tell me the bear run on most counters is down to fundamentals.Most likely election jitters.

I've always wondered if abusive people know what they are doing to themselves?

Proverbs 19:21
Cde Monomotapa
#175 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 7:57:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I'd listen to @deal if were ya'll that this is very much a commercial affair and also from our interests in SADC, I can confirm that there does exist a SA power pool which is under-invested & inadequate for SADC as it is. Thus, the EA pool can be connected to the SA pool and it won't matter where the elec.is generated but just cabling it and that has the support of govts, private sector & devt. banks. Then we can say bye to the 'dark continent' [from space] ;-)
the deal
#176 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 8:15:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hey all I apologise if I was abusive to anyone in any way thats not my character...I was just defending KenGen from unwarranted attacks.
Cde Monomotapa
#177 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 9:05:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I'd listen to @deal if were ya'll that this is very much a commercial affair and also from our interests in SADC, I can confirm that there does exist a SA power pool which is under-invested & inadequate for SADC as it is. Thus, the EA pool can be connected to the SA pool and it won't matter where the elec.is generated but just cabling it and that has the support of govts, private sector & devt. banks.

Case in point: Mozambique to boost Zim power supplies http://www.newzimbabwe.c...er%20supplies/news.aspx | NamPower reviews Hwange agreement - Zimbabwe http://www.newsday.co.zw...eviews-hwange-agreement/
Aguytrying
#178 Posted : Saturday, February 23, 2013 1:14:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the deal wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:


Answer me this. To whom will the earnings of the new geothermal plants financed by the asset backed bond be attributable to?

A bond is like a loan...offcourse revenues generated from this geothermal fields would be greater than the interest payments on the bond...after paying off the interest where will the money be going? to KenGen offcourse....its one the reasons Kenya Power is asking for a tariff hike...to be able to buy this new power...to be able to invest in infstructure to support this new power.


Show with FACTS the statement in red.

This is a deadly assumption.... i would wait for the management to give further details other than assume such things.
bottom line with facts at hand: reduced earnings growth for kengen ( as earnings of NEW geothermal production go into servicing bond)

please if you have no facts, DONT bother.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Bettertry
#179 Posted : Saturday, February 23, 2013 12:59:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/19/2010
Posts: 237
Location: Republic of Graham & Doddsville
Let me weigh in on this discussion by directly addressing @Kausha & Aguytrying. Both of whom have been talking of the supposedly erosion/reduction of earnings as a result of Kengen issuing an ABB. Fine, so all the earnings -assumingly- goes to paying this bond as it has been advanced here by both of u... would that mean even the earnings from the recently upgraded facilities + the ongoing upgrades of other facilities would count for nothing??? http://www.the-star.co.k...le-103354/kengen-receive
We Will Either Find a Way or Create One - HANNIBAL
Aguytrying
#180 Posted : Saturday, February 23, 2013 2:47:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@bettertry.
Note all my posts talk about "reduced earning GROWTH"
not reduced earnings. Reason: geothermal one of the major (if not the major) earnings growth drivers.

So while investors avoid dilution by more shares, they will experience reduced earnings growth(new geothermal earnings go to servicing bond)

Its no a bad situation for investors though. But its important to grasp the implications.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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