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Kenya power posts 36 pct profit jump in FY 2012
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the deal
#81 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 8:06:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
Switch to Kengen, Dividend Yield at 9.25 is 6.5%...PE 7.2 Revenue growth 11% y/y vs Kenya Powers 2.7% Dividend yield, PE 7.8 and Revenue growth of 6% y/y.

I had stated this on Tues that rotation from KPLC to Kengen is happening now. And with that mean KPLC div with no bonus, the upside support will be limited.

Kengen has an upside potential of 13.5% from 9.25/- targetting 10.50/- before book closure on Dec 5th. So upside of 13.5% plus div yield of 6.5% @9.25/- gives a cool return of 20%.


Two weeks later Kengen is playing the script. Today's high testing 10/-

@guru - we will review exdiv to see if it will nosedive as per your expectations.

@youcant - keep this in your reminder memo bank.

On course to vault the 10/- handle as book closure approaches. 6 trading days left.


some good demand and higher levels coming in. I left it at 1M shares at 2pm... closed at 2.36M touching 10.05

Seems the buy momentum has run out of steam like MSC. I'll bail out on Monday and hope to get out @9.70/- if possible to look in 10% gains including div yield.

@guru - you might just get it right here on Kengen as the index correction gains momentum...

Managed to get out @9.50/- Boy this thing has taken a hammer. Never anticipated this kind of market selling. But since it's happening in Dec when NSE is in a correction and slowdown, well irrational selling is expected. Downward momentum points to 8.50 at best!

So I take my small gain of 5.88% (cap gains + div yield less commissions).

So @guru wins...


You came back to this giant?
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hisah
#82 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 8:38:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@deal - One of my picks with Jubilee for Q1 2013. I see a chance of getting it at 8.50 - 8.80. Will build on it slowly as we head to Feb.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#83 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 2:38:06 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
@deal - One of my picks with Jubilee for Q1 2013. I see a chance of getting it at 8.50 - 8.80. Will build on it slowly as we head to Feb.


But why now. Its ex div. I see it slipping to 7-8 bob along the run up to elections however i could be wrong. It has momentum at the moment, large volumes have pushed it from 8.50 to 9.00. there's large support at 8.50.

I hope to get KPLC <16 and KENGEN ~ 8.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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murchr
#84 Posted : Thursday, February 21, 2013 11:23:21 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
http://www.businessdaily...8/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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holycow
#85 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 6:13:00 AM
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Joined: 11/11/2006
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murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Power-sees-fall-in-profit-ahead-of-tariffs-increase/-/539550/1701038/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html


So is this a profit warning?
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techboy
#86 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 7:44:24 AM
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Joined: 6/18/2009
Posts: 271
holycow wrote:
murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Power-sees-fall-in-profit-ahead-of-tariffs-increase/-/539550/1701038/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html


So is this a profit warning?


tarrif increase goes with profit fall ???????
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For Sport
#87 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 7:54:04 AM
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Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
techboy wrote:
holycow wrote:
murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Power-sees-fall-in-profit-ahead-of-tariffs-increase/-/539550/1701038/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html


So is this a profit warning?


tarrif increase goes with profit fall ???????

They must mean it the other way round. Profit fall this financial period in view of the current tariffs & costs. Improved performance later when tariffs are reviewed
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hisah
#88 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 8:07:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
holycow wrote:
murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Power-sees-fall-in-profit-ahead-of-tariffs-increase/-/539550/1701038/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html


So is this a profit warning?

A very sneaky profit warning and a hint of another pathetic div payout.

I still don't understand how this tariff hike is going to help out KP assuming their revenues continue to nosedive. If they can't grow power unit volumes (clients) fast enough and a tariff hike makes it even trickier, where will the proposed profit jump come from?

I wish there was an inverse sector ETF at NSE. I would long (buy) kengen and short (sell) KP.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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techboy
#89 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 8:16:43 AM
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Joined: 6/18/2009
Posts: 271
holycow wrote:
murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Power-sees-fall-in-profit-ahead-of-tariffs-increase/-/539550/1701038/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html


So is this a profit warning?


well this explains allot ...14 bob maybe on the cards ?
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the deal
#90 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 8:38:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
hisah wrote:
holycow wrote:
murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Power-sees-fall-in-profit-ahead-of-tariffs-increase/-/539550/1701038/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html


So is this a profit warning?

A very sneaky profit warning and a hint of another pathetic div payout.

I still don't understand how this tariff hike is going to help out KP assuming their revenues continue to nosedive. If they can't grow power unit volumes (clients) fast enough and a tariff hike makes it even trickier, where will the proposed profit jump come from?

I wish there was an inverse sector ETF at NSE. I would long (buy) kengen and short (sell) KP.

Revenues are expected to grow...its the OPEX which has become an issue...anyway you cant go looking for a tariff hike when you are growing profits.
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holycow
#91 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 9:47:11 AM
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Things not well for KPLC this morning, as @Hisah would say, its taking it in the chin!!
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hisah
#92 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 9:59:38 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KK... Closing below 13/- means downside risks are now in play. Breakout to the downside with 12.50 near term support then back to 11. Hold on tight those still in the ship. Should the puma deal come undone, capitulation central...

MSC line in the sand is 4.50, below that 3.60 is open for challenge! Sugar guru vs guru267 bet coming alive and sugar guru (njunge) is in the lead...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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S.Mutaga III
#93 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:22:02 AM
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Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
hisah wrote:
KK... Closing below 13/- means downside risks are now in play. Breakout to the downside with 12.50 near term support then back to 11. Hold on tight those still in the ship. Should the puma deal come undone, capitulation central...

MSC line in the sand is 4.50, below that 3.60 is open for challenge! Sugar guru vs guru267 bet coming alive and sugar guru (njunge) is in the lead...

A third of my portfolio is in Mumias,A third is in KK and the other third is in cash. When I see such a post, I just hold on to my nuts...to confused on what to do. Do I average down with the remaining cash or do I look for another counter especially now that prices are becoming more attractive as the elections near?
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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S.Mutaga III
#94 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:25:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
hisah wrote:
KK... Closing below 13/- means downside risks are now in play. Breakout to the downside with 12.50 near term support then back to 11. Hold on tight those still in the ship. Should the puma deal come undone, capitulation central...

MSC line in the sand is 4.50, below that 3.60 is open for challenge! Sugar guru vs guru267 bet coming alive and sugar guru (njunge) is in the lead...

A third of my portfolio is in Mumias,A third is in KK and the other third is in cash. When I see such a post, I just hold on to my nuts...to confused on what to do. Do I average down with the remaining cash or do I look for another counter especially now that prices are becoming more attractive as the elections approach?
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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mwekez@ji
#95 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:33:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
State renews contract for Kenya Power boss for three more years >>> http://www.nation.co.ke/busines...02/-/g6lfnx/-/index.html
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Aguytrying
#96 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 11:01:23 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Power-sees-fall-in-profit-ahead-of-tariffs-increase/-/539550/1701038/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html


This is the best buy recommendation i have ever read.

First kenya power says its profits will drop by 53% to 3.9 million june this year.

Then KPLC says that IF tarrifs are increased its profits will double from current level to 11 billion in june next year.

Like someone said, you cant ask for tariff increase when you are growing profits.

The huge profit drop will compel the tarrif review uptake. and be easier for consumers, watchdogs to swallow.

Reducing dividend??? its already almost non existent.

Tarrif review is coming up very soon.
Ill be waiting to buy this counter after mr market has a field day (unless of course the reason like me) but mr market never disappoints.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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murchr
#97 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:46:30 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Power-sees-fall-in-profit-ahead-of-tariffs-increase/-/539550/1701038/-/15rfmq6/-/index.html


This is the best buy recommendation i have ever read.

First kenya power says its profits will drop by 53% to 3.9 million june this year.

Then KPLC says that IF tarrifs are increased its profits will double from current level to 11 billion in june next year.

Like someone said, you cant ask for tariff increase when you are growing profits.

The huge profit drop will compel the tarrif review uptake. and be easier for consumers, watchdogs to swallow.

Reducing dividend??? its already almost non existent.

Tarrif review is coming up very soon.
Ill be waiting to buy this counter after mr market has a field day (unless of course the reason like me) but mr market never disappoints.


@Aguy...from their report the tariff increase is meant to finance projects in Kengen and Ketraco as well as reduce power transmission losses.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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Aguytrying
#98 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:55:03 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@muchr. And kplc expects a 30% increase in revenue if tarrifs are increased as they propose. And more importantly profits to increase to 11 billion. Almost double to fy 2011.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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murchr
#99 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:58:10 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
@muchr. And kplc expects a 30% increase in revenue if tarrifs are increased as they propose


They always come short of their targets, read this http://www.kplc.co.ke/fi...013_Detailed_Version.pdf
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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murchr
#100 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 6:31:07 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
http://www.the-star.co.k...r-project-bids-finalised
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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