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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/19/2011 Posts: 49 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:obiero wrote:there was a clown somewhere within this thread who was confident that KES 35 for KCB was a pipedream. my friend, we started investing in 2003.. there are things I know better than most Well i guess the clown was right afterall...Or wasn't he? 35/- traded and is the high for 2013. Well, I can see @Obiero is the real prophet here. Kudos. You got it right.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:maka wrote:obiero wrote:@stocksmaster is slipping (sic) on the job. my guy, you have failed to consider expected strong posting of full year PBT results by some companies read financial sector and resultant good dividend announcements such as the assured ones from KCB and HFCK that will ring fence even the fearful foreigners. ...not really we have seen more than once where the market has failed to factor in good results,there is so much uncertainity we can never know...its all about taking that chance. Dear brother Maka. Look at KCB shuttling into the stratosphere. I forsee KES 35 in next few weeks. Elections will not water down investor appetite for this stock in particular. Hio dividend itashikilia price juu, na ikishuka hadi 25 hivi, nitauza hata nyumba na walio ndani ili ninunue KCB! This is a dialog dated 02.01.13. Hopefully, some have noted that @stocksmaster is human after all. He made a pretty bad money move on 1st quarter and I only hope 2nd quarter works out for him and his followers.. I used to be his student and I learnt alot over the years, I admire his NSE exploits and remain a steadfast fan.
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Q1 ends on 31st March. Many trading days still remaining. Review should be from April to see why it was a success or not. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Any sober person should be exiting the market at this time...the bull is fat enough...elections around the corner and too much red yesterday and today...if you have made some cash...run for the hills and thank me later A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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It looks from the opinion polls jubilee might win round 1 and lose round 2 but at the same time scoop a majority of seats in parliament. With the current level of partisanship we are likely to have a divided parliament it will hard to push budgetary approvals. In my view Mr. Market is being exuberant and needs to tone down. I'm quietly moving to the money market, I think whichever govt is in power it will need to do quite a bit of borrowing and KRA will not meet targets
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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braliwa is a good counter to make some money till the heat cools off in Kenya
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:MoneyMonger wrote:kaifastus wrote:Interesting discussion..Perhaps as we approach the elections and also immediately after, the direction of key macro economic indicators will become more clearer. The general public mood however is that of uncertainty. Those who have already sold are making the most noise to destabilize the market and dampen the prices for reasons all of us know.For now we wait...In cash!   Let them make noise here as we make money!!! For every day wasted making noise is an opportunity lost. Money is made in volatility. You ride the upward wave as volumes expand & bail out as volumes contract! #KK in 2012 = NSE in 2013  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:maka wrote:obiero wrote:@stocksmaster is slipping (sic) on the job. my guy, you have failed to consider expected strong posting of full year PBT results by some companies read financial sector and resultant good dividend announcements such as the assured ones from KCB and HFCK that will ring fence even the fearful foreigners. ...not really we have seen more than once where the market has failed to factor in good results,there is so much uncertainity we can never know...its all about taking that chance. Dear brother Maka. Look at KCB shuttling into the stratosphere. I forsee KES 35 in next few weeks. Elections will not water down investor appetite for this stock in particular. Hio dividend itashikilia price juu, na ikishuka hadi 25 hivi, nitauza hata nyumba na walio ndani ili ninunue KCB! This is a dialog dated 02.01.13. Hopefully, some have noted that @stocksmaster is human after all. He made a pretty bad money move on 1st quarter and I only hope 2nd quarter works out for him and his followers.. I used to be his student and I learnt alot over the years, I admire his NSE exploits and remain a steadfast fan. ...you were right i dont dispute but I said its taking chances after all you are never quite sure with this things esp in an emerging market,what happens (God forbid) if Kenya burns after 4th and the market closes for a few weeks?am the most conservative of investors and always believe there is money to be made at different stages,FYI I have a sizeable amount if KCB bought @ 26,not only for ne but for a couple of my clients...good work on calling it out though. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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streetwise wrote:Is this is a bull for good economic reasons or bonds money ... finding a resting place ...bond money is invested in real estate not on stocks. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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seems one @stocksmaster deserted his thread,perhaps he/she is also in a dilema as regards the way forward. Its time to make a move,cash is King has been to much.today i enter the market........
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mibbz wrote:seems one @stocksmaster deserted his thread,perhaps he/she is also in a dilema as regards the way forward. Its time to make a move,cash is King has been to much.today i enter the market........ Qtr 1 ends today. No need to shout for answers. Besides in a few days it's either a new gubberment or run-off. These have to be factored in before revision of any strategy. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Hisah, hold your horses. We still have another month before Q1 comes to a close. But it is clear, if the election comes off without a hitch, we are DEFINITELY headed higher. hisah wrote:mibbz wrote:seems one @stocksmaster deserted his thread,perhaps he/she is also in a dilema as regards the way forward. Its time to make a move,cash is King has been to much.today i enter the market........ Qtr 1 ends today. No need to shout for answers. Besides in a few days it's either a new gubberment or run-off. These have to be factored in before revision of any strategy.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwanahisa wrote:Hisah, hold your horses. We still have another month before Q1 comes to a close. But it is clear, if the election comes off without a hitch, we are DEFINITELY headed higher. hisah wrote:mibbz wrote:seems one @stocksmaster deserted his thread,perhaps he/she is also in a dilema as regards the way forward. Its time to make a move,cash is King has been to much.today i enter the market........ Qtr 1 ends today. No need to shout for answers. Besides in a few days it's either a new gubberment or run-off. These have to be factored in before revision of any strategy. Oh, my bad. Actually March 29. I'm already in March $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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mkonomtupu wrote:stocksmaster wrote:
The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.
A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.
A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013.
I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).
Happy hunting.
I'm struggling to understand your logic.  ..Although i'm expecting election could go either way, a cord win will means effectively locking out two of the most important regions Rift valley and Central from power. That has never happened in the history of the country from the colonial times. Can you imagine what will happen if the people in those two regions realise they have no stake in government with their leaders carted off to the hague they will have a siege mentality and the first thing to do is to starve the government of revenue so expect KRA not to meet its targets and therefore new creative taxes to be pushed through a hostile parliament. The same thing happens if Jubilee wins a whole region will be locked out in a winner takes it all situation. If jubilee wins that spooks foreign investors and gives the country bad press but sanctions are unlikely. In my view the market will continue to trade sideways what will matter is individual stock picks and a long term outlook. Happy hunting Now that it's clear that jubilee has won please update your thread
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,548
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mkonomtupu wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:stocksmaster wrote:
The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.
A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.
A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013.
I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).
Happy hunting.
I'm struggling to understand your logic. ..Although i'm expecting election could go either way, a cord win will means effectively locking out two of the most important regions Rift valley and Central from power. That has never happened in the history of the country from the colonial times. Can you imagine what will happen if the people in those two regions realise they have no stake in government with their leaders carted off to the hague they will have a siege mentality and the first thing to do is to starve the government of revenue so expect KRA not to meet its targets and therefore new creative taxes to be pushed through a hostile parliament. The same thing happens if Jubilee wins a whole region will be locked out in a winner takes it all situation. If jubilee wins that spooks foreign investors and gives the country bad press but sanctions are unlikely. In my view the market will continue to trade sideways what will matter is individual stock picks and a long term outlook. Happy hunting Now that it's clear that jubilee has won please update your thread Is the dump stocks buy dollar strategy still OK, please review or update. A New Kenya
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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A lot of disgruntled folks... And where did @Jamani go to? He was an avid contributor. Been missing for some time now. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:A lot of disgruntled folks...
And where did @Jamani go to? He was an avid contributor. Been missing for some time now.
If 10% cash position has had me cursing,i would feel for anyone who went into cash in a big way...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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I think we should wait till the dust settles. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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ChessMaster wrote:I think we should wait till the dust settles.
Holding cash was a wrong call. The End
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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poundfoolish wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:obiero wrote:could 2013 be the year when stocksmaster got it all wrong? he did not get it wrong because he did not do the examination(investing in stocks) Its only 8th of January.. markets open for just a few days and people are already talking of others getting it wrong? With this type of haste.. i'd bet on stockmaster against the two of you for this year's ballon d'stock Ona hii poundfoolish vile imejianika uchi mbele ya wanaume.. all i know is right now im very liquid. u bet on the wrong horse, better luck in your future endeavours :)
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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