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KCB Q3 Pre Tax Profit up 43%
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sparkly
#101 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 2:44:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
officially exited at Kshs 39 capital gains 0.5m Mr. Market it was a pleasure doing business. You gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run...


Do you believe that 39 is overvalued? I don't. KCB still has a high DY relative to the market. PE also reasonable. I liquidated half of my holdings at around 30. Am still in the bus till it hits on the breaks. Looks like 35 will form a nice support going forward.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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guru267
#102 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 3:00:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I have lowered my FY2012 PBT estimate for simba to 18.5B down from 20B!

DPS will also come it at 2.1-2.20 down from my previous estimate of 2.50!

Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwanahisa
#103 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 3:08:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@g267...what informs this? I had noted that KCB had an exceptionally good 4th quarter in 2011, having made a PAT of 4.5B the quarter. They have not been able to match this figure since; with an average PAT of 3.1B in the 1st 3 quarters of 2012. Hence a PBT of 18.5B would still be swell.

As to the stock price, at 39, folks have made plenty of money. It will not surprise me if there is a pullback but if it retreats to 35, there should be sufficient support. In the medium term, 50 is still possible.
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mkonomtupu
#104 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 3:15:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
sparkly wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
officially exited at Kshs 39 capital gains 0.5m Mr. Market it was a pleasure doing business. You gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run...


Do you believe that 39 is overvalued? I don't. KCB still has a high DY relative to the market. PE also reasonable. I liquidated half of my holdings at around 30. Am still in the bus till it hits on the breaks. Looks like 35 will form a nice support going forward.


The value depends on the coming results but an asset with market value of 112b producing 12b looks ripe for harvesting. I was over-exposed to the banking sector given my holding in NIC bank I see a bit of risk on the banking sector the profits(108b) look abnormal considering the state of the economy last year. I also didn't think the 0.5m would come that fast so gotta think like a gambler. Nimefika stage yangu siendi mwisho wa lami
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subaru
#105 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 4:09:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2010
Posts: 391
Location: nairobie
good exit @ 39 pliz dont rejoin at 45 cause the mbus might stop
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obiero
#106 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 5:29:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,557
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
I have lowered my FY2012 PBT estimate for simba to 18.5B down from 20B!

DPS will also come it at 2.1-2.20 down from my previous estimate of 2.50!

Sad

^ Hmm. Finally u see my sense. We should go out sometime.. My insider sources are grade A

COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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techboy
#107 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 5:52:34 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 6/18/2009
Posts: 271
guru267 wrote:
I have lowered my FY2012 PBT estimate for simba to 18.5B down from 20B!

DPS will also come it at 2.1-2.20 down from my previous estimate of 2.50!

Sad



and you think the stock rallies on such wrong estimates . Yani why do you thing you know more than the market... me i really wonder ...?????
i tell you the truth with that perception of yours you'll never manage big money....
this is the problem we have with fundamentalists ...
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guru267
#108 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 6:50:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
techboy wrote:
guru267 wrote:
I have lowered my FY2012 PBT estimate for simba to 18.5B down from 20B!

DPS will also come it at 2.1-2.20 down from my previous estimate of 2.50!

Sad



and you think the stock rallies on such wrong estimates . Yani why do you thing you know more than the market... me i really wonder ...?????
i tell you the truth with that perception of yours you'll never manage big money....
this is the problem we have with fundamentalists ...


I just hope you won't be swallowing your words like many before you!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Gatheuzi
#109 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 10:14:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
mkonomtupu wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
officially exited at Kshs 39 capital gains 0.5m Mr. Market it was a pleasure doing business. You gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run...


Do you believe that 39 is overvalued? I don't. KCB still has a high DY relative to the market. PE also reasonable. I liquidated half of my holdings at around 30. Am still in the bus till it hits on the breaks. Looks like 35 will form a nice support going forward.


The value depends on the coming results but an asset with market value of 112b producing 12b looks ripe for harvesting. I was over-exposed to the banking sector given my holding in NIC bank I see a bit of risk on the banking sector the profits(108b) look abnormal considering the state of the economy last year. I also didn't think the 0.5m would come that fast so gotta think like a gambler. Nimefika stage yangu siendi mwisho wa lami

Congrats on the deal! At 35 last week I was almost wetting my p..ts so I got out. Now I can only watch....
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#110 Posted : Thursday, February 14, 2013 6:39:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Good move @mkonotupu. Your moves at Uchumi & NIC were also spot onApplause Applause ApplauseMust admit I was also tempted to harvest at 39 till I looked at the Dow & thought with $ talking,i can as well hang on there kidogo. Plus im lookin forward to Good Friday tomorrowsmile
Happy valentines with the 0.5million gainssmilewow!
@SufficientlyP
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techboy
#111 Posted : Friday, February 15, 2013 4:34:01 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 6/18/2009
Posts: 271
Gatheuzi wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
officially exited at Kshs 39 capital gains 0.5m Mr. Market it was a pleasure doing business. You gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run...


Do you believe that 39 is overvalued? I don't. KCB still has a high DY relative to the market. PE also reasonable. I liquidated half of my holdings at around 30. Am still in the bus till it hits on the breaks. Looks like 35 will form a nice support going forward.


The value depends on the coming results but an asset with market value of 112b producing 12b looks ripe for harvesting. I was over-exposed to the banking sector given my holding in NIC bank I see a bit of risk on the banking sector the profits(108b) look abnormal considering the state of the economy last year. I also didn't think the 0.5m would come that fast so gotta think like a gambler. Nimefika stage yangu siendi mwisho wa lami

Congrats on the deal! At 35 last week I was almost wetting my p..ts so I got out. Now I can only watch....


how do you manage to invest with so much emotions ?
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