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Insurance Counters at NSE - Valuation & recommendation
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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techboy wrote:FUNKY wrote:Huge supply at CFC Insurance today..304,900 shares at 7/-..rare to see such a huge supply for CFCI.. and the one who will absorb that what does he know that we donot ? That is the question Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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the deal wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@the deal. I Dont change my mind that quickly. Im waiting for end year results and dividend. I got in on my own analysis and ill leave on my own. But i Dont trust the company enough for a long term hold.
Ive seen some stanlib adverts on kenyatta avenue. If u know liberty the parent in s.a u know what that means.... Asset management joining the businesses streams StanLib is not part of the listed company, I know Liberty very well...theyre big dogs in SA but have struggled outside SA while Sanlam has flourished. What do u make of the adverts then? I think the asset management arm of liberty holdings kenya ltd is coming through stanlib. Just as stanlib is the asset management arm of liberty holdings ltd(SA) The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/23/2010 Posts: 63 Location: Kampala
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the deal wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the deal wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:The insurance industry is the last place I would invest. The entire industry 43 companies makes only 7-9 billion in profits compared to the banks 100 billion. There is low penetration with most individuals and companies only buying motor, fire, personal accident and group medical cover. Any insurance company doing group medical cover is just bleeding itself because the claims are huge. The kenya population has a bad attitude towards insurance and the prefer "tunaomba serikali.." plus a bad savings culture.
I had tried to speculate with CFCI/liberty last year until I realized they preferred to keep 3 billion in cash, owed a huge loan to NIC and the MD was talking about investing in real estate when the stock market was down Ghai. I wish i knew this before i speculated recently. And the chairman is mentioned with the CMC drama. Investors are always advised not to invest in a business they dont understand. is that aimed at me? i understand this company and insurance in general. interesting u respond to this after failing to in so many questions in the cfci rise thread Not really...I will post a blog on this today...I think its much better that way btwn I hope u didnt sell because of what @Mkono said above? Guys, You ought to be bullish for some of the insurance companies over the long haul. What you dont realize is that the top 3-4 insurance companies are going to be strong power holds over the next 4-5yrs across the region. Now to consider which compant in particular, look at the historical combined ratio for the past 10 years. Look for those that have had atleast 3/10 years of underwriting profits. Then consider the performance of the investment portfolio (excluding property). Consider how it has performed over the years with incremental funds. if it has averaged 12%+ then that is ok, the more the better. Finally, look at the management from the holdings level to the subsidiaries. Look at the reputations of these managers over the years and from othe companies they were in and see how they have performed. That can be an indicator of what to expect over the next 3-5 years. Finally for the companies that look most attractive, you may consider entering at prices close to or less than book. The premiuim above book should be warrantied.. Since your holding for a long period, buy in bits. Remember the goal is to own as much as you can of these businesses. Diversify among 2-4 at most. And keep buying. If price isnt good, ignore. Remember you dont need to own everything to do well. You will do well. I dnt know why the SIB guys ignored Jubilee. But that is a great business
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 27
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Am a new wazuan,but hey folks a common mistake wanjikus make is not knowing the number of shares readily available in the stock.4 instance kengen has almost 2.2billion issued shares of which treasury holds 1.5b n if am not wrong BBK nominees n KCB also have substantial no.s they hold 4 the long haul. That leaves about 1billion shares 4 the wanjikus to trade with. Kengen is makin almost 3b in profits. Now take Kenya Re's 700million issued shares of which 420million is held by treasury. Add into the mix big investors absorbing the remaining 280million shares n wanjiku is remained with very little to trade with. Mark u Kenya Re is expected to make over 2.4b for 2012. Thats almost kshs4 per share compared to kengen's kshs1.3 per share. What all this means is that when kengen starts going down after a rally, it does so faster than 4 instance kenya re because there are more shares to dispose off. So before u buy,find out the number of shares readily available. 4 now,Kengen n Kenya Re are long to mid long stocks. And buy many if u can.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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berns wrote:Am a new wazuan,but hey folks a common mistake wanjikus make is not knowing the number of shares readily available in the stock.4 instance kengen has almost 2.2billion issued shares of which treasury holds 1.5b n if am not wrong BBK nominees n KCB also have substantial no.s they hold 4 the long haul. That leaves about 1billion shares 4 the wanjikus to trade with. Kengen is makin almost 3b in profits. Now take Kenya Re's 700million issued shares of which 420million is held by treasury. Add into the mix big investors absorbing the remaining 280million shares n wanjiku is remained with very little to trade with. Mark u Kenya Re is expected to make over 2.4b for 2012. Thats almost kshs4 per share compared to kengen's kshs1.3 per share. What all this means is that when kengen starts going down after a rally, it does so faster than 4 instance kenya re because there are more shares to dispose off. So before u buy,find out the number of shares readily available. 4 now,Kengen n Kenya Re are long to mid long stocks. And buy many if u can. Ditto, welcome to Wazua "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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berns wrote:Am a new wazuan,but hey folks a common mistake wanjikus make is not knowing the number of shares readily available in the stock.4 instance kengen has almost 2.2billion issued shares of which treasury holds 1.5b n if am not wrong BBK nominees n KCB also have substantial no.s they hold 4 the long haul. That leaves about 1billion shares 4 the wanjikus to trade with. Kengen is makin almost 3b in profits. Now take Kenya Re's 700million issued shares of which 420million is held by treasury. Add into the mix big investors absorbing the remaining 280million shares n wanjiku is remained with very little to trade with. Mark u Kenya Re is expected to make over 2.4b for 2012. Thats almost kshs4 per share compared to kengen's kshs1.3 per share. What all this means is that when kengen starts going down after a rally, it does so faster than 4 instance kenya re because there are more shares to dispose off. So before u buy,find out the number of shares readily available. 4 now,Kengen n Kenya Re are long to mid long stocks. And buy many if u can. Not really...actually lack of free float hinders a stock from realising its true potential...many insititutions would stay away from the stock because the stock is illiquid. Examples of stocks which have outperfomed despite alot of shares being in hands of Wanjikus include KCB...SCOM...etc.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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I don't like financials especially insurance. They are all based on a gamble. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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ChessMaster wrote:I don't like financials especially insurance. They are all based on a gamble. what exactly does this even mean?? #ThinkBeforeSpeaking  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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guru267 wrote:ChessMaster wrote:I don't like financials especially insurance. They are all based on a gamble. what exactly does this even mean?? #ThinkBeforeSpeaking If the financial crisis,eurozone and the many scandals involved both local and international, have taught me anything its that. But it doesn't mean you can't make money from it. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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ChessMaster wrote:I don't like financials especially insurance. They are all based on a gamble. First of all...every investment is a gamble, manufacturing or financial...its all a gamble. 2ndly, On insurance...do u have any? How often do you spend (doc visits, medication etc) worth what you have paid to them? Insurance companies have a steady flow of premium incomes and more often than not, they hold the money for years before they pay it out eventually as losses. Meanwhile...b4 you get sick, they are investing your money and getting returns out of it. That car...you'll keep paying that insurance, but unless your a mat, you might never get a sumuni from them. Now think about Re-insurance "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Gross premiums in the insurance industry rose to Sh100 billion last year, driven by rising demand. Finance minister Njeru Githae said on Friday the insurance industry had expanded in the amount of premiums underwritten, investments held and even in the asset base. According to the Association of Kenya Insurers, gross written premium for all non-life and life insurance companies stood at Sh91.6 billion at the end of 2011 and Sh79.06 billion as at the end of 2010. http://www.businessdailyafrica....2/-/cae9nvz/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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SIB weekly Equity Market Commentary >>> Britam was up 20.6% w/w to KES 8.50 levels last seen when the underwriter was listed in 2011. Britam is expected to announce FY12 performance figures Thursday 14th March and we expect strong results bolstered by the upswing in the stock market as well as strong premium growth.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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mwekez@ji wrote:SIB weekly Equity Market Commentary >>> Britam was up 20.6% w/w to KES 8.50 levels last seen when the underwriter was listed in 2011. Britam is expected to announce FY12 performance figures Thursday 14th March and we expect strong results bolstered by the upswing in the stock market as well as strong premium growth. Got in at 6.20,a speculative play ...let us see how good the results will be .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Time to figure out which of the listed insurers are great beneficially of the said biggest windfall ever, from the political risk covers, that has left billions on insurers hands >>> http://www.businessdailyafrica....10/-/7l8t4z/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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All insurance stocks will rally. Methinks CIC will bolt the most since it's the new girl in the insurance stock town as well as wanjiku will see it's a cheap penny stock just coz of the price!
I'm hiding in CFCI (Liberty) & JHL. @aguy - I'll reduce 50% of CFCI at the 10.50 stage.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:All insurance stocks will rally. Methinks CIC will bolt the most since it's the new girl in the insurance stock town as well as wanjiku will see it's a cheap penny stock just coz of the price!
I'm hiding in CFCI (Liberty) & JHL. @aguy - I'll reduce 50% of CFCI at the 10.50 stage. with this news I may as well wait for 1/2 year results for the market to appreciate CFCI. however if the deal becomes too sweet. ill cash out. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/18/2006 Posts: 131
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hisah wrote:All insurance stocks will rally. Methinks CIC will bolt the most since it's the new girl in the insurance stock town as well as wanjiku will see it's a cheap penny stock just coz of the price!
I'm hiding in CFCI (Liberty) & JHL. @aguy - I'll reduce 50% of CFCI at the 10.50 stage. Is 120B premiums or value of insured risks?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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@msimon, calling for your view on the political risk covers vis-à-vis our listed insurance companies
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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kazee wrote:hisah wrote:All insurance stocks will rally. Methinks CIC will bolt the most since it's the new girl in the insurance stock town as well as wanjiku will see it's a cheap penny stock just coz of the price!
I'm hiding in CFCI (Liberty) & JHL. @aguy - I'll reduce 50% of CFCI at the 10.50 stage. Is 120B premiums or value of insured risks? Insured risk. The BD writer is sleeping on the job...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/16/2013 Posts: 123 Location: MSA
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Someone tell me, while BTAK and CFCI seem to be weathering the Petition storm, CIC does not seem to be replicating! Is there something I dont know???? Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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