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How can the NSE index be gaining towards elections?
stud
#1 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 12:28:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/17/2007
Posts: 17
Can someone please explain to me how most counters are gaining when we are just 1 month to the election considering what happened in 2007, is their something I don't know. all pointers(previous years)were that the share index would go down even most reviewers opinions were it would, who is buying stocks now..?
Should I still hold on to my cash...? i am beginning to regret cashing out on several counters which have now actually gained in prices.

Anyone....?
hisah
#2 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 12:42:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
stud wrote:
Can someone please explain to me how most counters are gaining when we are just 1 month to the election considering what happened in 2007, is their something I don't know. all pointers(previous years)were that the share index would go down even most reviewers opinions were it would, who is buying stocks now..?
Should I still hold on to my cash...? i am beginning to regret cashing out on several counters which have now actually gained in prices.

Anyone....?

Because wanjikus and the analysts are all in the same sentiment corner. Big money doesn't follow crowds (herd mentality). I'm liking the lesson.

I expect the MSCI KE today to breakout from the upper bollinger band confirming that another huge upleg is on the way.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
stud
#3 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 12:58:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/17/2007
Posts: 17
what should be the best strategy in such a time, I am lost
mauryc
#4 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 1:06:14 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/21/2010
Posts: 50
Location: nairobi
Everyone is taking positions ahead of the general elections
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#5 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 1:08:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@stud,you got the answer from @Hisah. Dont follow the crowd. And by the way in 2007, stocks were rising before the elections. I remember in the last trading day,24th Dec 2007 before elections,counters like HF ran out of supply at 47bob! Investors were betting on a peaceful election. They were wrong! We fought! Maybe this time they dont want to take positions,atleast the wanjikus or they are betting on a violent election. Only time will tell. As for me,im betting on a peaceful one!
@SufficientlyP
stud
#6 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 5:31:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/17/2007
Posts: 17
Thanx guys, I have some insight now. I am kinda betting on a peaceful election also.
guru267
#7 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 5:47:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
stud wrote:
Can someone please explain to me how most counters are gaining when we are just 1 month to the election considering what happened in 2007, is their something I don't know. all pointers(previous years)were that the share index would go down even most reviewers opinions were it would, who is buying stocks now..?
Should I still hold on to my cash...? i am beginning to regret cashing out on several counters which have now actually gained in prices.

Anyone....?

Because wanjikus and the analysts are all in the same sentiment corner. Big money doesn't follow crowds (herd mentality). I'm liking the lesson.

I expect the MSCI KE today to breakout from the upper bollinger band confirming that another huge upleg is on the way.


@hisah you seem to have been sucked into the #Euphoria!

March 4th is still a serious wild card in this party the NSE is currently hosting...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
BGL
#8 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 8:28:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
stud wrote:
Can someone please explain to me how most counters are gaining when we are just 1 month to the election considering what happened in 2007, is their something I don't know. all pointers(previous years)were that the share index would go down even most reviewers opinions were it would, who is buying stocks now..?
Should I still hold on to my cash...? i am beginning to regret cashing out on several counters which have now actually gained in prices.

Anyone....?


We will have a peaceful election irregardless of whoever wins.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
techboy
#9 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 8:48:00 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 6/18/2009
Posts: 271
stud wrote:
what should be the best strategy in such a time, I am lost



what do you mean you have lost ??? you havenot enjoyed this full rally ? are you one of those fundermental analysts that tucked their tails between their legs and run for the hills because of the elections.Most of these fundremental analysts who sold last year are hitting themselves very hard .
techboy
#10 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 8:51:14 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 6/18/2009
Posts: 271
stud wrote:
Can someone please explain to me how most counters are gaining when we are just 1 month to the election considering what happened in 2007, is their something I don't know. all pointers(previous years)were that the share index would go down even most reviewers opinions were it would, who is buying stocks now..?
Should I still hold on to my cash...? i am beginning to regret cashing out on several counters which have now actually gained in prices.

Anyone....?


the problem is very simple you DONOT CARE ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ! simple as that if you looked at the charts and they are free at bloomberg you could have seen it was BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY time a few months back . if you need consoling just know that you are very many who missed this . LOL No pun.
ChessMaster
#11 Posted : Thursday, February 07, 2013 9:08:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
stud wrote:
Can someone please explain to me how most counters are gaining when we are just 1 month to the election considering what happened in 2007, is their something I don't know. all pointers(previous years)were that the share index would go down even most reviewers opinions were it would, who is buying stocks now..?
Should I still hold on to my cash...? i am beginning to regret cashing out on several counters which have now actually gained in prices.

Anyone....?


The future is unpredictable and the past doesn't always repeat the way we expect it to.Don't regret cashing out,would you if it was tanking right now. My advice for you would be,go at your pace.Its your money.If unsure,its better to be safe than sorry. If you want to invest trust your knowledge.Knowledge is the only wealth that keeps giving and can't be stolen. If you are unsure about your knowledge don't invest,because that becomes gambling. Happy hunting.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
erifloss
#12 Posted : Friday, February 08, 2013 4:50:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
I think somebody said it nicely last week, 'even with the coming elections, Kenya has got better prospects than Europe." If you analyse it well, look at the number of foreign funds coming in and the fund raising being done, then we are slowly getting into the money.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Sober
#13 Posted : Friday, February 08, 2013 6:00:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
If at all the effect of the election is to. be felt, then give it the last week before we go to the polls. They still gonna. come down...
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
stud
#14 Posted : Friday, February 08, 2013 6:53:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/17/2007
Posts: 17
@techboy..I have not lost money I have actually made cash, I just exited most counters a bit earlier than I should have retrospectively.
@chessmaster...well said
@Sober.. the last week is probably leaving it too late

I still believe they will come down so will hold on to my cash and be happy with what I made...

Thanx all.
Mukiri
#15 Posted : Saturday, February 09, 2013 1:26:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
@stud,you got the answer from @Hisah. Dont follow the crowd. And by the way in 2007, stocks were rising before the elections. I remember in the last trading day,24th Dec 2007 before elections,counters like HF ran out of supply at 47bob! Investors were betting on a peaceful election. They were wrong! We fought! Maybe this time they dont want to take positions,atleast the wanjikus or they are betting on a violent election. Only time will tell. As for me,im betting on a peaceful one!

The elections might be peaceful, its the aftermarth thats troubling. Sanctions(Uhuruto)? Capital flight(Railonzo)? Its a crucial time for a Kenyan investor and only a fool would choose to ignore the signs. My take-Diversify. Such that if things go well you'll smile, albeit a small smile and if they go elephant you'll still smile, another small smile. Buy forex or a plot somewhere, in any case all mbuses have left.

Proverbs 19:21
youcan'tstopusnow
#16 Posted : Saturday, February 09, 2013 11:30:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Can't wait to get done and dusted with this kura. Upuzi mwingi tu!
Then maybe we can have 5 years of uninterrupted growth. Until the next elections of course! What a cycle...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#17 Posted : Saturday, February 09, 2013 1:44:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Can't wait to get done and dusted with this kura. Upuzi mwingi tu!
Then maybe we can have 5 years of uninterrupted growth. Until the next elections of course! What a cycle...

Earplugs (H1 FY'13). I feel you Cde YCSUN.
Cde Monomotapa
#18 Posted : Saturday, February 09, 2013 1:53:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Paradox of the year indeed, but the show ain't over yet. VOTE PEACEFULLY! (so I/We can take it to the bank)
the deal
#19 Posted : Saturday, February 09, 2013 3:50:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
This thing is beyond peaceful elections...its also about who gets elected and the implications of that persons policies/government on the economy...all shall be known post March 4...its boom or bust...in case of a bust re: sanctions...none of this banks can withstand such kind of a shock...Sell Buy Back schemes will be too small too work from the ensuing bank runs, defaults and asset devaluation...so vote wisely...that's my only prayer...it will be sad to see Kenya go the Zimbabwe way...the road of self destruction.
techboy
#20 Posted : Saturday, February 09, 2013 4:01:17 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 6/18/2009
Posts: 271
LOL> ! ofcourse the current bull market is a "WOW" moment for the fundamentalist BUT NOT for the technical analysts like us .
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