inshallah; good performance + interim dividend + final dividend =

I think the rise has also been because of the KES37.5B world bank loan to fund the Ethiopia-Kenya power transmission project by KETRACO.

KES37.5B is a very tidy sum if you take atleast 33p.c will be used to buy cables and assuming 10p.c profits for the supplied cables.

The question is who will win the supply contract.

http://the-star.co.ke/ne...r-line-gets-sh37bn-loan

By the way, who supplies the fiber optic cables to kenyan ISP?

I bumped into some historical data starting from 2008FY to 2012HY, and decided to estimate 2012FY results;

Turnover, Millions KES
------------ Half Year ------- Full Year
- 2008 ---- missing ---------- 2,812
- 2009 ---- missing ---------- 3,929
- 2010 ---- missing ---------- 3,658
- 2011 ---- 2,351 ------------- 4,971
- 2012 ---- 2,253 -- estimate 4,650

Operating Margin, percent
------------ Half Year ------- Full Year
- 2008 ---- missing ---------- 27.6
- 2009 ---- missing ---------- 13.9
- 2010 ---- missing ---------- 13.6
- 2011 ---- 13.5 -------------- missing
- 2012 ---- 18.3 ---estimate 15.0

Net Finance Cost, Millions KES
------------ Half Year ------- Full Year
- 2008 ---- missing ---------- (107)
- 2009 ---- missing ---------- (19)
- 2010 ---- missing ---------- (21)+(193 bad)
- 2011 ---- (68) -------------- missing
- 2012 ---- (19) ----estimate (50)

Taxation, percent
------------ Half Year ------- Full Year
- 2008 ---- missing ---------- (30.9)
- 2009 ---- missing ---------- (43.7)
- 2010 ---- missing ---------- (54.5)
- 2011 ---- (30.8) ------------ (31.9)
- 2012 ---- (30.2) ---estimate (31)

Profit After Tax, Millions KES
------------ Half Year ------- Full Year
- 2008 ---- missing ---------- 463
- 2009 ---- missing ---------- 296
- 2010 ---- missing ---------- 183
- 2011 ---- 172 --------------- 314
- 2012 ---- 274 ----estimate 446

I may be wrong but that shows that PAT will be up 42 percent.
Also final dividend may be 0.7/-.

Between 2008-2012, production cost has sky rocketed (check copper and aluminium prices at LME, fuel, labour, forex etc). This may have caused the profit margin to be squeezed even if turnover has gone up.

According to Table 9 page 6 of the report in this link,
http://www.transcentury....e_Genghis%20Capital.pdf
they actually estimate that the operating margin will be 20 percent (hence 800M PAT), which to me is too ambitious.

Now that Transcentury is at the NSE...I think TCL should buy out minority shareholders in Cables and have the company delisted...they can do a share swap...ala the I&M Bank and City Trust style. The listing of TCL could affect Cables because I dont see why I should buy shares in EA Cables when TCL owns around 63% of the Company...to kill two birds with one stone i just buy TCL

Nope...the assets acquired produce profits...so any dilution in terms of EPS should be offset by profits from this new assets acquired...dilution impact minimal.

@deal, i view it the other way. Tranny relies heavily on E.A Cables, so, by buying cable you are at the same level with Tranny in owning cables, instead of been a second level owner.
Am i communicating?

@Chessmaster theoretically DPS & EPS should remain constant in the event of a share swap!

The initial dilution in EPS of TCL would be offset by the increased earnings that will come from owning a larger share of cables!!

like @Aguy, i dont like TCL. Its an overvalued counter with complex books of accounts. That leaves TCL as a Technical Analsis play. I however like E.A.Cables and Civicon. Too bad Civicon aint listed directly in NSE

Will it bump this week?