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KQ is now trading at 13.50 - below rights issue
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sentinel prime
#121 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 10:04:33 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/12/2012
Posts: 92
I am a bit behind on the NSE nowadays, there was a time I was as sharp as a razor ....

the trick is to wait to see whether it'll go below 10...then wait till it crosses above 10 and buy with 1/4 intended position size....add more on like a moron if it goes higher and adjust upwards your mental stop loss...if it instead goes lower sell your first lot immediately ....this is the best method handed down by the trading gods...never cost average, never.....and you'll be laughing at buy and holders.

disclaimer :I currently hold no positions in the NSE the crappy executions,3 days settlement and larger than life commissions convinced me to take my game elsewhere.
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VituVingiSana
#122 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 10:52:15 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
VWAP 10.85/-

At this sub 11/- level KQ is technically oversold, but the risk/reward ratio of catching this falling knife is too skewed towards burning fingers.
Are you sure? I expect a 2H loss:

- Fired staff back on the payroll
- Legals fees
- Loss of focus
- High fuel prices
- Increased capacity but low loads
- Elections scare away tourists (potential violence)

The results will be released May/June 2013. I expect sub-10.

My conclusion was it's too risky even if it's technically oversold. It'll bounce due to selling fatigue, but fundamentals point south for now until there's a drastic change of events towards recovery. I expect capitulation to occur post results in 2013, which could push it sub 10/- for a while. I still foresee a special AGM soon and it'll be action-packed.
Why an EGM?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#123 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 11:58:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
VWAP 10.85/-

At this sub 11/- level KQ is technically oversold, but the risk/reward ratio of catching this falling knife is too skewed towards burning fingers.
Are you sure? I expect a 2H loss:

- Fired staff back on the payroll
- Legals fees
- Loss of focus
- High fuel prices
- Increased capacity but low loads
- Elections scare away tourists (potential violence)

The results will be released May/June 2013. I expect sub-10.

My conclusion was it's too risky even if it's technically oversold. It'll bounce due to selling fatigue, but fundamentals point south for now until there's a drastic change of events towards recovery. I expect capitulation to occur post results in 2013, which could push it sub 10/- for a while. I still foresee a special AGM soon and it'll be action-packed.
Why an EGM?

Just a hunch from the way the pandora's box is throwing spanners.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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VituVingiSana
#124 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 12:31:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
@hisah A new MD/CEO doesn't require an EGM. If KQ needs new cash, then yes but who is gonna entertain a Rights Issue today? They shot themselves in the foot with the last one.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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ProverB
#125 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 1:36:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Potential of cash coming into KQ is low..however..kq is not leaking cash...it is hemorrhaging!!!!

KQ needs to chill out in capital injection plans and stop rushing into more debt (acquiring planes)...just stop awhile..and focus on operational inefficiencies.. Audit staff, and optimise on working capital..

what's the worse that can happen?

1st half was bad...only an idiot expects awesome results for this and the next 2 years or so... so TN should quit trying prove things are ok...things are bad...so stop everything and rethink!!

shelve dreams for now and reconstruct operations of KQ.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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murchr
#126 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 3:57:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
If they shelve those dreams they are done. They cant compete with rented planes which are guzzlers. This pain killer is a must.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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ProverB
#127 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 4:06:05 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
murchr wrote:
If they shelve those dreams they are done. They cant compete with rented planes which are guzzlers. This pain killer is a must.


If your boat is sinking...you don't paddle faster.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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murchr
#128 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 4:29:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
ProverB wrote:
murchr wrote:
If they shelve those dreams they are done. They cant compete with rented planes which are guzzlers. This pain killer is a must.


If your boat is sinking...you don't paddle faster.


If u dont peddle then u can as well wait and sink. They have to acquire their own planes otherwise for how long shall they be working for others. They have to take the bitter pill to get well.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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ProverB
#129 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 4:49:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
murchr wrote:
If u dont peddle then u can as well wait and sink. They have to acquire their own planes otherwise for how long shall they be working for others. They have to take the bitter pill to get well.


The thing is...KQ uses too much money to get just one additional shilling of revenue

...operational costs are too huge..and increasing...plug in those operational inefficiencies and you have better footing to handle financial costs such as debt on planes, hire costs etc..

It's awesome to acquire planes..but clean out your operational systems first. Thus..plug the hole in your boat..or find a way to slow the water sipping in rather than hurriedly paddle after a dream.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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murchr
#130 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 5:52:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
ProverB wrote:
murchr wrote:
If u dont peddle then u can as well wait and sink. They have to acquire their own planes otherwise for how long shall they be working for others. They have to take the bitter pill to get well.


The thing is...KQ uses too much money to get just one additional shilling of revenue

...operational costs are too huge..and increasing...plug in those operational inefficiencies and you have better footing to handle financial costs such as debt on planes, hire costs etc..

It's awesome to acquire planes..but clean out your operational systems first. Thus..plug the hole in your boat..or find a way to slow the water sipping in rather than hurriedly paddle after a dream.


Too much money is relative. They have to adapt with the changing times or they are rendered redundant or useless.

Think about it. Their passenger no.s in Africa Asia and M/E are growing but flat on Europe up on cargo. Can someone say KQ is in bad business?

What has failed KQ is Boeing, these planes were supposed to have been delivered by now. And its not KQ alone, but the whole aviation industry. Some like Quantas cancelled their order of 35 planes. How hey will compete with Emirates will be a story for another day.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#131 Posted : Wednesday, December 19, 2012 10:03:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KQ counters the court ruling - http://www.businessdaily...42/-/ugc427/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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MoneyMonger
#132 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 11:03:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/25/2012
Posts: 110
Citi group lowers KQ's price expectation from 18 to 13, a 14% upside from the current price levels. http://www.businessdaily...36/-/duwweh/-/index.html
There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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xxxxx
#133 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 11:48:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 503
[quote=MoneyMonger]Citi group lowers KQ's price expectation from 18 to 13, a 14% upside from the current price levels. http://www.businessdaily...6/-/duwweh/-/index.html[/quote]

Anyone with the research report????????????
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mlennyma
#134 Posted : Thursday, January 03, 2013 8:06:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,184
Location: nairobi
Did they underwrite the rights?some of this pple can really lure the puplic into deals purported to be potential.thank God i refused the rights
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana
#135 Posted : Thursday, January 03, 2013 10:10:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Check out these blogposts:

http://coldtusker.blogsp...ya-airways-rip-off.html

http://coldtusker.blogsp...q-rights-issue-2012.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sparkly
#136 Posted : Thursday, January 03, 2013 1:05:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
[quote=MoneyMonger]Citi group lowers KQ's price expectation from 18 to 13, a 14% upside from the current price levels. http://www.businessdaily...6/-/duwweh/-/index.html[/quote]

Citi were perpetuated the management's lie that the rights money would be used as deposit for new planes. Barely a year and they come shouting how KQ needs to borrow more to finance working capital! In other jurisdictions, someone would lose a licence for such fraud or worse go to jail.

Bottomline NAIKUNI MUST GO.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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hisah
#137 Posted : Thursday, January 17, 2013 5:34:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
FAA grounds Boeing 787s over battery concerns - http://www.reuters.com/a...r-idUSBRE90F1N820130116

Will this plane ever be delivered to all the 'very patient' airliners?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#138 Posted : Friday, January 18, 2013 4:39:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Ethiopian Airline grounds Dreamliners amid safety scares - http://www.businessdaily...6/-/72kf4g/-/index.html

Quote:
Ethiopian Airline has temporarily grounded its Boeing 787 Dreamliners amid safety concerns raised by recent events in the US and Japan.

In a statement issued on Thursday the airline said it had not experienced any technical issues with the aircraft but opted to temporarily pull its 787 fleet out of service for precautionary inspection as advised by the US Federal Aviation Administration.

Ethiopian was the first airline in Africa to receive the Dreamliner and has four in its fleet.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#139 Posted : Saturday, January 19, 2013 2:50:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
US aerospace giant Boeing said late Friday that it had suspended deliveries of its new 787 Dreamliners until
safety experts resolve battery and electrical systems problems, but continues to build the aircraft.
The announcement capped a week in which all 50 787s in service around the world were grounded on orders
from multiple aviation
authorities to investigate the cause of two incidents, including a fire, linked to its batteries.
http://www.businessdaily.../-/5hnbu2z/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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quicksand
#140 Posted : Saturday, January 19, 2013 3:22:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
The A380 had more serious teething problems than the 787 ....there engine blowouts (rolls royce engines) due to lubrication issues and wing microfractures ....yet its all smooth sailing now. These 787 woes are minor in comparison and will soon pass.
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