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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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karanjakinuthia wrote:The Tao of Markets  Kweli kabisa.  Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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The NSE 20-Share Index is defying analyst forecasts by rising in the run-up to a general election. In addition, it is defying the popular mantra that in the wake of the holiday spending that is the Christmas holidays, January leaves individuals with little disposable income therefore the stock market has to fall as these individuals sell their shares for school fees etc. None of these arguments hold water. They are the basis of the maxim "market action making market commentary". Over the past 19 years, the NSE has attempted to breach the 5000 - 6000 level on the Index three times. The first was in 1994 with the monthly close at 5030. The second was in 2007 with the monthly close at 5774. We are in the midst of the third attempt. It usually takes the fourth attempt to clear a significant resistance level. The Index needs to close above 5947 for atleast two months to signal a break-out to new highs. On a cyclical basis, the dates to watch are 23rd of June, 2013 and 30th of December, 2014. "The NSE-20 Share Index surged to just 25 points shy of 4,500 points, boosted mainly by increases in prices of blue chip counters. The last time that the index touched this psychological level was in January 2011. Beer maker EABL was the day’s top mover, accounting for 41 per cent of Tuesday’s turnover with foreign investors taking up 98 per cent of the stock on sale...." Read more: http://www.businessdaily...8/-/l5ye5z/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The yen quagmire - http://gonzalolira.blogs...01/mr-abes-trigger.html
I hadn't noticed that Jap's BoP went negative in 2012. Quite something after 33yrs of positive balance. Abe's fix jab for BoP is to waterdown yens to make imports expensive and boost exports. Cheap Jap imports for the globe. Will it work? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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karanjakinuthia wrote:The NSE 20-Share Index is defying analyst forecasts by rising in the run-up to a general election. In addition, it is defying the popular mantra that in the wake of the holiday spending that is the Christmas holidays, January leaves individuals with little disposable income therefore the stock market has to fall as these individuals sell their shares for school fees etc. None of these arguments hold water. They are the basis of the maxim "market action making market commentary". Over the past 19 years, the NSE has attempted to breach the 5000 - 6000 level on the Index three times. The first was in 1994 with the monthly close at 5030. The second was in 2007 with the monthly close at 5774. We are in the midst of the third attempt. It usually takes the fourth attempt to clear a significant resistance level. The Index needs to close above 5947 for atleast two months to signal a break-out to new highs. On a cyclical basis, the dates to watch are 23rd of June, 2013 and 30th of December, 2014. "The NSE-20 Share Index surged to just 25 points shy of 4,500 points, boosted mainly by increases in prices of blue chip counters. The last time that the index touched this psychological level was in January 2011. Beer maker EABL was the day’s top mover, accounting for 41 per cent of Tuesday’s turnover with foreign investors taking up 98 per cent of the stock on sale...." Read more: http://www.businessdaily...8/-/l5ye5z/-/index.html
NSE20 index hit 4553 on Jan 16th. Yesterday it closed @4545. Will it hold above 4500 as the rally takes a pause.
True, the 5000 level is tough resistance. I'd be surprised if NSE leaps and closes above this level this year. I'd take it as a strong bullish signal if it happens.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:karanjakinuthia wrote:The NSE 20-Share Index is defying analyst forecasts by rising in the run-up to a general election. In addition, it is defying the popular mantra that in the wake of the holiday spending that is the Christmas holidays, January leaves individuals with little disposable income therefore the stock market has to fall as these individuals sell their shares for school fees etc. None of these arguments hold water. They are the basis of the maxim "market action making market commentary". Over the past 19 years, the NSE has attempted to breach the 5000 - 6000 level on the Index three times. The first was in 1994 with the monthly close at 5030. The second was in 2007 with the monthly close at 5774. We are in the midst of the third attempt. It usually takes the fourth attempt to clear a significant resistance level. The Index needs to close above 5947 for atleast two months to signal a break-out to new highs. On a cyclical basis, the dates to watch are 23rd of June, 2013 and 30th of December, 2014. "The NSE-20 Share Index surged to just 25 points shy of 4,500 points, boosted mainly by increases in prices of blue chip counters. The last time that the index touched this psychological level was in January 2011. Beer maker EABL was the day’s top mover, accounting for 41 per cent of Tuesday’s turnover with foreign investors taking up 98 per cent of the stock on sale...." Read more: http://www.businessdaily...8/-/l5ye5z/-/index.html
NSE20 index hit 4553 on Jan 16th. Yesterday it closed @4545. Will it hold above 4500 as the rally takes a pause.
True, the 5000 level is tough resistance. I'd be surprised if NSE leaps and closes above this level this year. I'd take it as a strong bullish signal if it happens. @Hisah, true indeed. Do you know the exact day of the February 1994 high and the corresponding closing number?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Fed official alleges Geithner may have alerted banks to rate cut - http://www.reuters.com/a...er-idUSBRE90I04220130119$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/16/2011 Posts: 196 Location: united states of africa
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@ Hisah What would your price estimates of silver for the next ten years be if you were to look at the crystal ball?? Please weka email address and I will explain the scenario further. Thanks. Energy.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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"are always, and without any-exception, the greatest spendthrifts in the society. Let them look well after their own expense, and they may safely trust private people with theirs. If their own extravagance does not ruin the state, that of the subject never will." Adam Smith wrote in his Wealth of Nations, Chapter III, referring to kings. We can throw politicians into that dragnet for they know not what they do in terms of economics. The United States seems headed for another cat fight over the debt ceiling, the last having been in August of 2011. Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geitner has already warned of the implications of brinkmanship, but, we can trust politicians not to disappoint on entertainment. Unlike Japan, which is heaving under US$ 12 trillion of public debt, 40% of the U.S. public debt is owned by foreigners compared to 5% for the former. The U.S. Dollar post-1944 became the de-facto reserve currency of the world meaning that the domestic policies of the States are exported worldwide. Two-thirds of all reserves around the world are held in U.S. Dollars. 25th of March, 2013 is shaping up as a turning point the Debt Ceiling Debate. It correlates on a timing basis with the U.S. Bond Market. 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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jonna wrote:@ Hisah
What would your price estimates of silver for the next ten years be if you were to look at the crystal ball??
Please weka email address and I will explain the scenario further.
Thanks. There's nothing like a market crystal ball otherwise it would be on sale at very inflated prices and its maker would be dead by now...
hisah20@gmail.com
Check this out - http://www.silverdoctors...-isolation-of-usdollar/
Been following the accumulation of silver and gold by the Asians, which is tying in with the current ASEAN trade policy. Currency war is now on full scale!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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hisah wrote:jonna wrote:@ Hisah
What would your price estimates of silver for the next ten years be if you were to look at the crystal ball??
Please weka email address and I will explain the scenario further.
Thanks. There's nothing like a market crystal ball otherwise it would be on sale at very inflated prices and its maker would be dead by now...
hisah20@gmail.com
Check this out - http://www.silverdoctors...-isolation-of-usdollar/
Been following the accumulation of silver and gold by the Asians, which is tying in with the current ASEAN trade policy. Currency war is now on full scale!
This is one issue thats been on my mind since last year.How do you see it play out? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:jonna wrote:@ Hisah
What would your price estimates of silver for the next ten years be if you were to look at the crystal ball??
Please weka email address and I will explain the scenario further.
Thanks. There's nothing like a market crystal ball otherwise it would be on sale at very inflated prices and its maker would be dead by now...
hisah20@gmail.com
Check this out - http://www.silverdoctors...-isolation-of-usdollar/
Been following the accumulation of silver and gold by the Asians, which is tying in with the current ASEAN trade policy. Currency war is now on full scale!
This is one issue thats been on my mind since last year.How do you see it play out? Central banks are now net gold buyers esp BRICs and Asia! Obviously before the ponzi fiat currency masters get knocked out, they'll try to suppress the prices as much as possible.
http://www.silverdoctors...to-take-gold-to-5000oz/
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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karanjakinuthia wrote:hisah wrote:karanjakinuthia wrote:The NSE 20-Share Index is defying analyst forecasts by rising in the run-up to a general election. In addition, it is defying the popular mantra that in the wake of the holiday spending that is the Christmas holidays, January leaves individuals with little disposable income therefore the stock market has to fall as these individuals sell their shares for school fees etc. None of these arguments hold water. They are the basis of the maxim "market action making market commentary". Over the past 19 years, the NSE has attempted to breach the 5000 - 6000 level on the Index three times. The first was in 1994 with the monthly close at 5030. The second was in 2007 with the monthly close at 5774. We are in the midst of the third attempt. It usually takes the fourth attempt to clear a significant resistance level. The Index needs to close above 5947 for atleast two months to signal a break-out to new highs. On a cyclical basis, the dates to watch are 23rd of June, 2013 and 30th of December, 2014. "The NSE-20 Share Index surged to just 25 points shy of 4,500 points, boosted mainly by increases in prices of blue chip counters. The last time that the index touched this psychological level was in January 2011. Beer maker EABL was the day’s top mover, accounting for 41 per cent of Tuesday’s turnover with foreign investors taking up 98 per cent of the stock on sale...." Read more: http://www.businessdaily...8/-/l5ye5z/-/index.html
NSE20 index hit 4553 on Jan 16th. Yesterday it closed @4545. Will it hold above 4500 as the rally takes a pause.
True, the 5000 level is tough resistance. I'd be surprised if NSE leaps and closes above this level this year. I'd take it as a strong bullish signal if it happens. @Hisah, true indeed. Do you know the exact day of the February 1994 high and the corresponding closing number? As per the wazua nse index link it seems the 1994 high was on Mon Feb 14th (valentine's day - weird) and the approx value is around 5200pts.
http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/nseindex.aspx - I narrowed down btwn Jan 1 1994 and March 1 1994 to get a clearer snapshot.
There is something else I noticed. Check the timeframe btwn Jan 1 1993 and March 1 1994. The NSE20 index mounted a 5000pts rally! Talk of a maniac parabolic rally!?! I wonder how many stocks were listed back then. That was one mad market!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@chessmaster - also check this out - http://www.ibtimes.com/c...900oz-2013-gfms-1019680
Quote:Central banks last year added the most gold to reserves since 1964 and will likely remain an important force in the gold market in 2013. Supported by solid investment demand, the gold price is expected to climb toward $1,900 an ounce and average records in the first half of this year, according to Thomson Reuters GFMS. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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hisah wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:jonna wrote:@ Hisah
What would your price estimates of silver for the next ten years be if you were to look at the crystal ball??
Please weka email address and I will explain the scenario further.
Thanks. There's nothing like a market crystal ball otherwise it would be on sale at very inflated prices and its maker would be dead by now...
hisah20@gmail.com
Check this out - http://www.silverdoctors...-isolation-of-usdollar/
Been following the accumulation of silver and gold by the Asians, which is tying in with the current ASEAN trade policy. Currency war is now on full scale!
This is one issue thats been on my mind since last year.How do you see it play out? Central banks are now net gold buyers esp BRICs and Asia! Obviously before the ponzi fiat currency masters get knocked out, they'll try to suppress the prices as much as possible.
http://www.silverdoctors...to-take-gold-to-5000oz/
It's getting interesting. Some things there I didn't expect or know.The problem I had with holding currencies is that none of them can withstand the windfall coming. Problem with Kenya is supply of gold and silver. Surprisingly,I'm more for silver than for gold.I also think recycling will start to become mainstream as people and organizations start scavenging the metals in them. @jonna and hisah - http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommel080104.htmlUncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:karanjakinuthia wrote:hisah wrote:karanjakinuthia wrote:The NSE 20-Share Index is defying analyst forecasts by rising in the run-up to a general election. In addition, it is defying the popular mantra that in the wake of the holiday spending that is the Christmas holidays, January leaves individuals with little disposable income therefore the stock market has to fall as these individuals sell their shares for school fees etc. None of these arguments hold water. They are the basis of the maxim "market action making market commentary". Over the past 19 years, the NSE has attempted to breach the 5000 - 6000 level on the Index three times. The first was in 1994 with the monthly close at 5030. The second was in 2007 with the monthly close at 5774. We are in the midst of the third attempt. It usually takes the fourth attempt to clear a significant resistance level. The Index needs to close above 5947 for atleast two months to signal a break-out to new highs. On a cyclical basis, the dates to watch are 23rd of June, 2013 and 30th of December, 2014. "The NSE-20 Share Index surged to just 25 points shy of 4,500 points, boosted mainly by increases in prices of blue chip counters. The last time that the index touched this psychological level was in January 2011. Beer maker EABL was the day’s top mover, accounting for 41 per cent of Tuesday’s turnover with foreign investors taking up 98 per cent of the stock on sale...." Read more: http://www.businessdaily...8/-/l5ye5z/-/index.html
NSE20 index hit 4553 on Jan 16th. Yesterday it closed @4545. Will it hold above 4500 as the rally takes a pause.
True, the 5000 level is tough resistance. I'd be surprised if NSE leaps and closes above this level this year. I'd take it as a strong bullish signal if it happens. @Hisah, true indeed. Do you know the exact day of the February 1994 high and the corresponding closing number? As per the wazua nse index link it seems the 1994 high was on Mon Feb 14th (valentine's day - weird) and the approx value is around 5200pts.
http://www.wazua.co.ke/investor/nseindex.aspx - I narrowed down btwn Jan 1 1994 and March 1 1994 to get a clearer snapshot.
There is something else I noticed. Check the timeframe btwn Jan 1 1993 and March 1 1994. The NSE20 index mounted a 5000pts rally! Talk of a maniac parabolic rally!?! I wonder how many stocks were listed back then. That was one mad market! @ Hisah. Thank you.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/16/2011 Posts: 196 Location: united states of africa
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ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:jonna wrote:@ Hisah
What would your price estimates of silver for the next ten years be if you were to look at the crystal ball??
Please weka email address and I will explain the scenario further.
Thanks. There's nothing like a market crystal ball otherwise it would be on sale at very inflated prices and its maker would be dead by now...
hisah20@gmail.com
Check this out - http://www.silverdoctors...-isolation-of-usdollar/
Been following the accumulation of silver and gold by the Asians, which is tying in with the current ASEAN trade policy. Currency war is now on full scale!
This is one issue thats been on my mind since last year.How do you see it play out? Central banks are now net gold buyers esp BRICs and Asia! Obviously before the ponzi fiat currency masters get knocked out, they'll try to suppress the prices as much as possible.
http://www.silverdoctors...to-take-gold-to-5000oz/
It's getting interesting. Some things there I didn't expect or know.The problem I had with holding currencies is that none of them can withstand the windfall coming. Problem with Kenya is supply of gold and silver. Surprisingly,I'm more for silver than for gold.I also think recycling will start to become mainstream as people and organizations start scavenging the metals in them. @jonna and hisah - http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/hommel080104.html Some proponents of economic integration in North America have maintained that the emergence of China and India in the global marketplace may be putting North America at a competitive disadvantage with other countries and that NAFTA should go beyond a free trade agreement. Some observers have written policy papers proposing that the U.S. government consider the possibility of forming a “NAFTA-Plus,” a “North American Union,” or even a common currency called the “Amero.”11 Critics of this level of economic integration believe that NAFTA has already gone too far and that it has harmed the U.S. economy and undermined democratic control of domestic policy-making.12 Others suggest that the SPP may be more than an initiative to increase cooperation and that it could lead to the creation of a common market or economic union in North America.13 However, as previously noted, if the United States were to potentially consider the formation of a customs union or common market with its North American neighbors, it would require approval by the U.S. Congress. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22701.pdfEnergy.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@jonna - http://www.huffingtonpos...berry/p.html?id=2504935 The trend continues in 2013. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Egan Jones banned for 18 months from rating US gubberment bonds - http://mobile.bloomberg....rnment-another-day.html The circus!? At its last US sovereign rating last Sept, it had downgrade the rate to AA- I wonder why the SEC went for the small fish... It is clear that the ponzi masters have now turned rogue, a signal that sh** is about to hit the fan! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Morgan Stanley CDO cheat revealed - http://www.huffingtonpos...berry/p.html?id=2535784
No surprises. Just doing 'god's work' like Goldman Sachs by selling sh*tty deals to its clients... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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