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Pump & Dump Schemes at the NSE
Rank: User Joined: 7/12/2011 Posts: 21
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The bull run in the current market is surprising considering the following:- 1- It is election year and we have candidates who are ICC suspects. That should make investors wary of investing. 2-The country is facing a risk of election violence similar to the 2007-08 scenario http://www.cfr.org/kenya...marketing_use-kenya_cpm
3-Too many directors and large shareholders are selling their stock. From Nambaru (Britak), to NIC, to the guy at Scangroup(notice Scan group is now on free fall). 4-Generally, the bull run is not a coincidence as people are realizing their gains to campaign. Prices may be propped up. It all looks likes stocks are being pumped to be later dumped.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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Sisqo wrote:The bull run in the current market is surprising considering the following:- 1- It is election year and we have candidates who are ICC suspects. That should make investors wary of investing. 2-The country is facing a risk of election violence similar to the 2007-08 scenario http://www.cfr.org/kenya...marketing_use-kenya_cpm
3-Too many directors and large shareholders are selling their stock. From Nambaru (Britak), to NIC, to the guy at Scangroup(notice Scan group is now on free fall). 4-Generally, the bull run is not a coincidence as people are realizing their gains to campaign. Prices may be propped up. It all looks likes stocks are being pumped to be later dumped. actually suggested this on this forum and somebody lashed back at me. Its possible to pump and dump,one can actually do it as an individual given time,skill and money.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/5/2013 Posts: 66
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Sisqo wrote:The bull run in the current market is surprising considering the following:- 1- It is election year and we have candidates who are ICC suspects. That should make investors wary of investing. 2-The country is facing a risk of election violence similar to the 2007-08 scenario http://www.cfr.org/kenya...marketing_use-kenya_cpm
3-Too many directors and large shareholders are selling their stock. From Nambaru (Britak), to NIC, to the guy at Scangroup(notice Scan group is now on free fall). 4-Generally, the bull run is not a coincidence as people are realizing their gains to campaign. Prices may be propped up. It all looks likes stocks are being pumped to be later dumped. Buy now as things keep going up. Sell by March
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I'd support pump & dump theory if the net bid was locally controlled. But since March 2012, net bid is foreign sided. Until the status flips to net sell, expect the market to stay at the lofty heights despite the current electioneering period. Have you seen the Venezuela haywire illogical/irrational rally for the last 2yrs non-stop despite the Chavez seesaw administration period? This year more oil/gas wells are being prospected thus more funds flows coming in. Until that hot money flees, expect the logics to be defied! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/19/2011 Posts: 49 Location: Nairobi
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March is days away. Before then, you can be making good cash with the current rally
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Rank: User Joined: 7/12/2011 Posts: 21
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hisah wrote:I'd support pump & dump theory if the net bid was locally controlled. But since March 2012, net bid is foreign sided. Until the status flips to net sell, expect the market to stay at the lofty heights despite the current electioneering period. Have you seen the Venezuela haywire illogical/irrational rally for the last 2yrs non-stop despite the Chavez seesaw administration period?
This year more oil/gas wells are being prospected thus more funds flows coming in.
Until that hot money flees, expect the logics to be defied! That makes it more dangerous. 1-Capital flight can have devastating results to a country's economy. Look at the effect of FPI's in Asia in the 1990. Foreign Portfolio Investment can have devastating results. 2-We do not have any laws governing or regulating this compared to countries like China, Brazil, and India. 3-The recent base lending rates cuts will leave the market awash with money. This creates a temporary/false impression that the economy is booming. Many other reasons....I am just worried. Especially of the capital flight scenario. If Uhuru wins, trouble. If Raila wins, trouble. Sure opportunities to see our paper wealth at NSE evaporate.Especially those who will be buying stocks at a high (from mid Feb).
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Rank: User Joined: 1/5/2013 Posts: 66
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MoG wrote:March is days away. Before then, you can be making good cash with the current rally CiC, Access Kenya,...the list is endless. I got CIC today at 4. Watching it grow in the next few months to profits.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sisqo wrote:hisah wrote:I'd support pump & dump theory if the net bid was locally controlled. But since March 2012, net bid is foreign sided. Until the status flips to net sell, expect the market to stay at the lofty heights despite the current electioneering period. Have you seen the Venezuela haywire illogical/irrational rally for the last 2yrs non-stop despite the Chavez seesaw administration period?
This year more oil/gas wells are being prospected thus more funds flows coming in.
Until that hot money flees, expect the logics to be defied! That makes it more dangerous. 1-Capital flight can have devastating results to a country's economy. Look at the effect of FPI's in Asia in the 1990. Foreign Portfolio Investment can have devastating results. 2-We do not have any laws governing or regulating this compared to countries like China, Brazil, and India. 3-The recent base lending rates cuts will leave the market awash with money. This creates a temporary/false impression that the economy is booming. Many other reasons....I am just worried. Especially of the capital flight scenario. If Uhuru wins, trouble. If Raila wins, trouble. Sure opportunities to see our paper wealth at NSE evaporate.Especially those who will be buying stocks at a high (from mid Feb). Bull markets climb walls of worry. The locals are very fearful while the bull is setting up its base. Follow the money, the rest is noise until it is not... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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The bull must be fattened, in readiness for slaughter. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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foreign investor can be any Kenyan with cash stashed abroad buying via a foreign account/broker. With all that cash stashed by kenyans abroad i wouldn't be surprised its just them 'cleaning' the cash as Al Jazeera suggested in a documentary about rise of real estate in Nairobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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People in cash will say Pump & Dump...people in the bus will say its a bull market...and it still has legs...the day economists agree on one thing then they're not thinking!
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Rank: User Joined: 7/12/2011 Posts: 21
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mibbz wrote:foreign investor can be any Kenyan with cash stashed abroad buying via a foreign account/broker. With all that cash stashed by kenyans abroad i wouldn't be surprised its just them 'cleaning' the cash as Al Jazeera suggested in a documentary about rise of real estate in Nairobi 1-The money in supply in the Kenyan market has always averaged at 295 billion. On, September 2012, Kenya's money supply jumped to 668 billion. An all time high since 1992 http://www.tradingeconom...m/kenya/money-supply-m1
2-You will notice from the graph on the above link that the money supply started increasing from July 2011. And has since been increasing. This explains the "bull market" we had in 2012. 3-I suspect a lot of churning and bear raids are happening at the NSE. The pumping and dumping is obvious, the Mumias stock run for the past few days is a classic example. The market is definitely being hyped. 4-CBK cutting the base lending rate to 9.5% and banks are following suit. This will further increase the money supply in the market. 5-Directors of companies selling stock in their own companies is always a red flag.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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@sisqo thanks for the statistics. I do believe in the pump and dump theory.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Sisqo wrote:mibbz wrote:foreign investor can be any Kenyan with cash stashed abroad buying via a foreign account/broker. With all that cash stashed by kenyans abroad i wouldn't be surprised its just them 'cleaning' the cash as Al Jazeera suggested in a documentary about rise of real estate in Nairobi 1-The money in supply in the Kenyan market has always averaged at 295 billion. On, September 2012, Kenya's money supply jumped to 668 billion. An all time high since 1992 http://www.tradingeconom...m/kenya/money-supply-m1
2-You will notice from the graph on the above link that the money supply started increasing from July 2011. And has since been increasing. This explains the "bull market" we had in 2012. 3-I suspect a lot of churning and bear raids are happening at the NSE. The pumping and dumping is obvious, the Mumias stock run for the past few days is a classic example. The market is definitely being hyped. 4-CBK cutting the base lending rate to 9.5% and banks are following suit. This will further increase the money supply in the market. 5-Directors of companies selling stock in their own companies is always a red flag.  Which companies are these?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Sisqo - For KE monetary stuff check this thread which goes back to March 2010 - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...aspx?g=posts&t=6382 M1 grew marginally in 2012 on a yoy measure compared to 2010 vs 2011. Note inflation spiked weakening the KES in 2011 as well as central bank funding rates sharply hiked. After the kneejerk tightening by CBK in 2011, the funding rate has been cut from a high of 18% to 9.5% recently in order to stimulate the economy suffering a growth slump (some firms issued profit warnings). Some of this stimulus will find its way in the equity market thus the bear run in 2011 & rebound in 2012. Compared to the number of CEOs that bought a stake in their firms in 2012 vs those that sold, the former were more. E.g. KCB, Barclays, Access Kenya, Rea Vipingo etc. Those that sold mostly were conforming to CMA'S shareholding threshold rules. Like I said before there is still fear in the market thus the dismal retail investor activity since 2011 when the bear run was strong. The rebound in 2012 was largely an institutional investors fanfare and still remains so from the heavy blue chips turnover. Pump & dump works well when retail investors (wanjikus) are more bullish than institutionals. While I agree that MSC is acting strange based on its bad fundies, you can't use it as your reference for your argument. The 2012 rebound was powered by select counters mostly blue chips. In a bull euphoria majority of stocks rally since irrational logic runs the show as investors get greed-drunk. In summary, bullish euphoria = gross greed, bearish euphoria = morbid fear. NSE is still at the cautionary bullish level, which means fear is greater than greed thus the rally confounding the so called analysts esp now with near term elections. If and when morbid greed checks in, that's the time I'll agree with with this pump & dump theory. All the best to those in cash as well as those in the fearful bull mbus... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 1/5/2013 Posts: 66
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Sisqo wrote:The bull run in the current market is surprising considering the following:- 1- It is election year and we have candidates who are ICC suspects. That should make investors wary of investing. 2-The country is facing a risk of election violence similar to the 2007-08 scenario http://www.cfr.org/kenya...marketing_use-kenya_cpm
3-Too many directors and large shareholders are selling their stock. From Nambaru (Britak), to NIC, to the guy at Scangroup(notice Scan group is now on free fall). 4-Generally, the bull run is not a coincidence as people are realizing their gains to campaign. Prices may be propped up. It all looks likes stocks are being pumped to be later dumped. Theory sounds good. But this happens around the world. Market movers manipulate the market. Forget about technical/fundamental analysis of stocks. That is bs. Money moves the market. And you best be on the right side when it does.
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Rank: User Joined: 6/18/2009 Posts: 271
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HAHAH. even seasoned technical analysis think the current rally is pump and dump. funny enough nobody want to whip out a chart and show us why they think its a pimp and dump . read this post and magnify it if you wanna . THIS ISNOT A PUMP AND DUMP scheme. for one simple reason . VOLUME !
if you are looking for a reason why you missed this rally look somewhere else and not silly reasons that its a pump and dump ..
maybe you should get to read charts and not local gossip thats so much here .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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techboy wrote:HAHAH. even seasoned technical analysis think the current rally is pump and dump. funny enough nobody want to whip out a chart and show us why they think its a pimp and dump . read this post and magnify it if you wanna . THIS ISNOT A PUMP AND DUMP scheme. for one simple reason . VOLUME !
if you are looking for a reason why you missed this rally look somewhere else and not silly reasons that its a pump and dump ..
maybe you should get to read charts and not local gossip thats so much here . They have been making noise since Jan 1. We must stop them! This is our beloved nation & like I said in the other thread by @Stocksmaster,hii Kenya ni yetu na tutakuwa hapa hapa post March 4th! BTW,if u still holding cash,why not just buy land or something like that instead if coming to scare us here  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:techboy wrote:HAHAH. even seasoned technical analysis think the current rally is pump and dump. funny enough nobody want to whip out a chart and show us why they think its a pimp and dump . read this post and magnify it if you wanna . THIS ISNOT A PUMP AND DUMP scheme. for one simple reason . VOLUME !
if you are looking for a reason why you missed this rally look somewhere else and not silly reasons that its a pump and dump ..
maybe you should get to read charts and not local gossip thats so much here . They have been making noise since Jan 1. We must stop them! This is our beloved nation & like I said in the other thread by @Stocksmaster,hii Kenya ni yetu na tutakuwa hapa hapa post March 4th! BTW,if u still holding cash,why not just buy land or something like that instead if coming to scare us here Watch stock performance on wazua from 1st Jan 2013-17th Jan 2013;Over 32 counters have gains of over 5%,17 have over 10 percent and the highest at 43%!!!! And btw,even with 2007 pev,stocks fell on september 2008(and not all stocks).
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: User Joined: 1/5/2013 Posts: 66
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@Sisqo-Kengen describes what you are talking about.
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