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NIC or KCB??
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mkonomtupu
#11 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 3:19:10 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Gadaffi wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
hisah wrote:
KCB - fat dividend pay as well as capital gains.

NIC - capital gains with mean dividend pay.

KCB - blue chip

NIC - x chip...

Blue chip, plus fat dividend pay, plus capital gains more price support.


d'oh! d'oh! KCB fat dividend
If I buy KCB for Kshs 500,000 at 28.5 get 17,500 shares
17,500 X 2.25 (expected div in 2013)=Kshs 39,473

If I bought before book closure NIC Kshs 500,000 @ 40= 12500 shares
Bonus 1:10 =1250 bonus shares
Sell bonus shares 1250 X 40=Kshs 50,000

Retain bonus 12500+1250=13750
Expected bonus issue 2013 1:10=1375
Sell bonus for 2013- 1375 x 40= kshs 55,000
Sell bonus for 2012 1250 x 40= Kshs 50,000
smile smile

@mkonomtupu
kindly do ur math post bonus issue, post rights issue


I have done my river road math
For KCB 17500 shares * 32.75 =Kshs 573,125/=
Capital gains Kshs 73,125
Expected dividend 17,500*2.25=Kshs 39,473/=

For NIC
13750 (bonus inclusive)*41.75=Kshs 574,062/=
Sell bonus 2012 1250 x 42=Kshs 52,500/=
Expected bonus 2013 1:10=1250
Sell bonus 2013 1250 x 48= Kshs 60,000

I continue to keep watch on the market and political scene...it may be time to harvest
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kiterunner
#12 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 4:54:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/9/2011
Posts: 730
Location: Nairobi
.
our goals are best achieved indirectly
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 11, 2013 5:25 PM | Reason: Not specified
mazingira
#13 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 4:57:25 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/26/2012
Posts: 136
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I will wait for the profit takers to do their thing with KCB...if 23 prints,I will purchase a large chunk...until then,cash is king!Nic...i dont like growth stocks,they are mean with dividends..#my 2 cents#


23 ...that's murder ...I want this to touch 40 this quarter
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guru267
#14 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 5:10:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mazingira wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I will wait for the profit takers to do their thing with KCB...if 23 prints,I will purchase a large chunk...until then,cash is king!Nic...i dont like growth stocks,they are mean with dividends..#my 2 cents#


23 ...that's murder ... I want this to touch 40 this quarter


#Euphoria Shame on you
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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hisah
#15 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 6:23:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
EPS 2011 was 3.72 while current share price @32.75 leaves trailing P.E. @8.8. If P/E is rerated to 10, share price will clock 37.50/-

H1 2012 EPS = 2.05, assuming KCB H2 is equal to H1 then final EPS = 4.10. So forward P/E = 7.98 with share price @32.75. Still cheap. If you rerate the FP/E to 10 with EPS @4.10 the share price clocks 41/- Then add the dividend cheque to the capital gain.

Considering that the likes of BAT, EABL and mpesa bank are on P/Es above 15, if the estimated EPS of 4.10 is applied to that multiple, the share prices will clock 61.50/-

The only question remains will KCB maintain a CAGR in PAT of 30% and above for another 2 - 5yrs out. The management said they plan to do so. And so I expect the bid pressure to continue! And better, trading above all time highs. No resistance at the moment!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 11, 2013 6:26 PM | Reason: Not specified
kaifastus
#16 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 6:26:45 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I will wait for the profit takers to do their thing with KCB...if 23 prints,I will purchase a large chunk...until then,cash is king!Nic...i dont like growth stocks,they are mean with dividends..#my 2 cents#



"if 23 prints!" thats a 30% drop mutaga!.. for 23 to print,There has to be a serious deterioration of macroeconomics indicators in the country,or a downturn in the companies fundamentals or sometimes both ..if that happens and the price indeed comes down to 23, you shall change your perception and wish it lower say at 18! why don't you add now?
everyone (but foreigners) is waiting to get in after the elections. After elections the prices of key stocks may be too high. The nse is on the runaway!
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S.Mutaga III
#17 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 8:09:24 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
kaifastus wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I will wait for the profit takers to do their thing with KCB...if 23 prints,I will purchase a large chunk...until then,cash is king!Nic...i dont like growth stocks,they are mean with dividends..#my 2 cents#



"if 23 prints!" thats a 30% drop mutaga!.. for 23 to print,There has to be a serious deterioration of macroeconomics indicators in the country,or a downturn in the companies fundamentals or sometimes both ..if that happens and the price indeed comes down to 23, you shall change your perception and wish it lower say at 18! why don't you add now?
everyone (but foreigners) is waiting to get in after the elections. After elections the prices of key stocks may be too high. The nse is on the runaway!

The funds were redeployed to other counters leaving me with no idle money.Thanks for the advice anyway.It has been noted.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Mukiri
#18 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 8:19:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
I greedily got out of KCB, looks like I'll make my broker happy by getting back in at a higher price!

Proverbs 19:21
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