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murchr
#11 Posted : Thursday, January 10, 2013 11:41:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
murchr wrote:
you can add Unga...and HFCK to that list


totaly agreed! been picking HFCK @15-15.5bob and Unga at below 13 bob.


What is the magic behind Unga?

Aguytrying wrote:
There are some companies that are decent and have reasonable future prospects, but for some reason they have been neglected by investors and their prices have tanked and stagnated. and are grossly undervalued.
Is there an investment case for the following stocks? and is there anything that ails these stocks?

CAR and GENERAL
KENYA RE
NBK??( doubt on health of company)
MUMIAS
TOTAL ( especially this one)


For TOTAL did the share actions by parent company cause too much dilution?


Please say more about Total, I'm curious as to why nobody seems to share your enthusiasm on it.


I didnt include UNGA despite it being undervalued and a great company, because it has rallied in the last year. HFCK was a done deal for me.

TOTAL, i also have question marks?? The parent company was awarded shares, i dont know how dilutive they were.

MUMIAS, what about comesa rules will it trim they profits??



Definately, esp this year when the usual suspects will be busy at work
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 11, 2013 12:20 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 12:24:17 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
CFCIH: Insurance company accounting is vague. And I (for some reason) do NOT trust the S.Africans... See what they did with CFC after Stanbic bought it. I am not convinced minority shareholders got the best deal when the swaps took place.

Kenya-Re: Gov't control scares me. KPLC started having cashflow problems after GoK ended up with 51%. They refused the politically expedient tariff increase which was due KPLC & highlighted in the Rights IM. KPLC could & should have sued but did not coz GoK owns 51%. Another is KQ now that GoK has a larger shareholding vs KLM. Will GoK 'buy' peace with the 'electorate' using politically expedient decisions?

So will Kenya-Re suffer similar problems? Will it pay out on losses it should not? Does Kenya-Re have the ability to compete without government protection?

Unga: The Chairperson & CEO's statement [Annual Report] states that the next 2-3 years will see declining margins due to competition, high commodity prices & reduced spending power. I think it will pull through but not as dominant as it is today.

City Trust: What a gem. It quietly plodded along earning dividends [shown as its main income] from I&M Bank. With the 'Reverse Takeover' it has exploded with the true(r) value revealed. Smart investment in I&M Bank that has paid off very well for City Trust since I&M is now in fast growing Rwanda, almost virgin Tanzania & even Mauritius. It will probably do a major split to bring the share price in line with other banks.

City Trust: 400/-

SCBK: 240/- (2:1) but it is expected to split in 2013
DTB: 124/- (4:1)
NIC: 40/- (10:1)
Equity: 25/- (16:1)
KCB: 30/- (13:1)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 11, 2013 1:31 AM | Reason: Not specified
jacmuchiri
#13 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 1:17:17 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 9/11/2012
Posts: 12
Location: Bermuda
Kenya Re always baffles me.....in the meantime, D&B are very bullish with Total. Check this out:

http://www.dyerandblairo...search%20Note_141212.pdf
...When they count the men who built Kenya, will you be in the list? I choose to go long term....
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murchr
#14 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 3:47:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
CFCIH: Insurance company accounting is vague. And I (for some reason) do NOT trust the S.Africans... See what they did with CFC after Stanbic bought it. I am not convinced minority shareholders got the best deal when the swaps took place.

Kenya-Re: Gov't control scares me. KPLC started having cashflow problems after GoK ended up with 51%. They refused the politically expedient tariff increase which was due KPLC & highlighted in the Rights IM. KPLC could & should have sued but did not coz GoK owns 51%. Another is KQ now that GoK has a larger shareholding vs KLM. Will GoK 'buy' peace with the 'electorate' using politically expedient decisions?

So will Kenya-Re suffer similar problems? Will it pay out on losses it should not? Does Kenya-Re have the ability to compete without government protection?

Unga: The Chairperson & CEO's statement [Annual Report] states that the next 2-3 years will see declining margins due to competition, high commodity prices & reduced spending power. I think it will pull through but not as dominant as it is today.

City Trust: What a gem. It quietly plodded along earning dividends [shown as its main income] from I&M Bank. With the 'Reverse Takeover' it has exploded with the true(r) value revealed. Smart investment in I&M Bank that has paid off very well for City Trust since I&M is now in fast growing Rwanda, almost virgin Tanzania & even Mauritius. It will probably do a major split to bring the share price in line with other banks.

City Trust: 400/-

SCBK: 240/- (2:1) but it is expected to split in 2013
DTB: 124/- (4:1)
NIC: 40/- (10:1)
Equity: 25/- (16:1)
KCB: 30/- (13:1)



@VVS are you of the opinion that GOK is out to finish all companies that its invests in why has it not done that to KCB? Enzi za Nyayo ziliisha.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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guru267
#15 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 6:19:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Kenya-Re: Gov't control scares me. KPLC started having cashflow problems after GoK ended up with 51%. They refused the politically expedient tariff increase which was due KPLC & highlighted in the Rights IM. KPLC could & should have sued but did not coz GoK owns 51%. Another is KQ now that GoK has a larger shareholding vs KLM. Will GoK 'buy' peace with the 'electorate' using politically expedient decisions?

So will Kenya-Re suffer similar problems? Will it pay out on losses it should not? Does Kenya-Re have the ability to compete without government protection?


@VVS are you aware of all the re branding and management changes going on at Kenya re?

The government plans to fatten the profitability & efficiency of the firm before ceding majority of its stake to a strategic investor in line with with its grand privatisation plan!!

Lets not be stuck in the Moi days!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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dunkang
#16 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 8:15:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Total is recovering from the loses, you can check the Third Quarter results.
It unfortunate that this year they will not make a profit nor declare a dividend, but come the next year, Total will be back to the game.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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Angelica _ann
#17 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 8:52:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
Unga - undervaluation of property and land in possession.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 10:18:41 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
CFCIH: Insurance company accounting is vague. And I (for some reason) do NOT trust the S.Africans... See what they did with CFC after Stanbic bought it. I am not convinced minority shareholders got the best deal when the swaps took place.

Kenya-Re: Gov't control scares me. KPLC started having cashflow problems after GoK ended up with 51%. They refused the politically expedient tariff increase which was due KPLC & highlighted in the Rights IM. KPLC could & should have sued but did not coz GoK owns 51%. Another is KQ now that GoK has a larger shareholding vs KLM. Will GoK 'buy' peace with the 'electorate' using politically expedient decisions?

So will Kenya-Re suffer similar problems? Will it pay out on losses it should not? Does Kenya-Re have the ability to compete without government protection?

Unga: The Chairperson & CEO's statement [Annual Report] states that the next 2-3 years will see declining margins due to competition, high commodity prices & reduced spending power. I think it will pull through but not as dominant as it is today.

City Trust: What a gem. It quietly plodded along earning dividends [shown as its main income] from I&M Bank. With the 'Reverse Takeover' it has exploded with the true(r) value revealed. Smart investment in I&M Bank that has paid off very well for City Trust since I&M is now in fast growing Rwanda, almost virgin Tanzania & even Mauritius. It will probably do a major split to bring the share price in line with other banks.

City Trust: 400/-

SCBK: 240/- (2:1) but it is expected to split in 2013
DTB: 124/- (4:1)
NIC: 40/- (10:1)
Equity: 25/- (16:1)
KCB: 30/- (13:1)



@VVS are you of the opinion that GOK is out to finish all companies that its invests in why has it not done that to KCB? Enzi za Nyayo ziliisha.
I thought I was clear about the 'control' aspect by GoK. If I was not, let be clarify. KenRe & KPLC are controlled by GoK. In KQ, it has significant influence being the largest shareholder (30%+) vs KLM.

GoK has a much smaller stake (17.63%) in KCB thus it's influence has waned significantly. If the 'other' shareholders ganged up, it could defeat GoK in any vote. The 'large' individual shareholders, foreign shareholders & local institutional shareholders own more shares (combined) than GoK. BTW, NSSF with 7.6% is a wild card.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Mukiri
#19 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 10:29:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Someone mentioned Pan African, what do you think?

Proverbs 19:21
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sparkly
#20 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 10:31:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
dunkang wrote:
Total is recovering from the loses, you can check the Third Quarter results.
It unfortunate that this year they will not make a profit nor declare a dividend, but come the next year, Total will be back to the game.


Has DB considered the potential dilution by the preference shares to the parent co?
Life is short. Live passionately.
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