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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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There are some companies that are decent and have reasonable future prospects, but for some reason they have been neglected by investors and their prices have tanked and stagnated. and are grossly undervalued. Is there an investment case for the following stocks? and is there anything that ails these stocks? CAR and GENERAL KENYA RE NBK??( doubt on health of company) MUMIAS TOTAL ( especially this one) For TOTAL did the share actions by parent company cause too much dilution? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:
Is there an investment case for the following stocks? and is there anything that ails these stocks?
KENYA RE
Kenya re has a forward P/E of 3.5 and a dividend yield of 4.5%.. Lets not forget the 0.6 P/B... We must also remember Kenya re owns 1% of KCB which earned it 400million capital gains when the share moved from 16.40-30 in 2012! The capital gains quoted above does not include the other investments they own! If this is not a case for investment I dont know what is... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@guru - that fact about Kenya RE owning 1% of KCB is very interesting. Indeed this counter is undervalued! Will dig further on it since I see 2013 being the insurance firms year if elections are held peacefully. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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guru267 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:
Is there an investment case for the following stocks? and is there anything that ails these stocks?
KENYA RE
Kenya re has a forward P/E of 3.5 and a dividend yield of 4.5%.. Lets not forget the 0.6 P/B... We must also remember Kenya re owns 1% of KCB which earned it 400million capital gains when the share moved from 16.40-30 in 2012! The capital gains quoted above does not include the other investments they own! If this is not a case for investment I dont know what is... Im already sold on this one, im just being greedy The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Politics is what holds mumias back. You can add Unga...and HFCK to that list....Shhhhhh on Kenya RE. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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murchr wrote: you can add Unga...and HFCK to that list totaly agreed! been picking HFCK @15-15.5bob and Unga at below 13 bob. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Angelica _ann wrote:murchr wrote: you can add Unga...and HFCK to that list totaly agreed! been picking HFCK @15-15.5bob and Unga at below 13 bob. What is the magic behind Unga? Aguytrying wrote:There are some companies that are decent and have reasonable future prospects, but for some reason they have been neglected by investors and their prices have tanked and stagnated. and are grossly undervalued.
Is there an investment case for the following stocks? and is there anything that ails these stocks?
CAR and GENERAL
KENYA RE
NBK??( doubt on health of company)
MUMIAS
TOTAL ( especially this one)
For TOTAL did the share actions by parent company cause too much dilution? Please say more about Total, I'm curious as to why nobody seems to share your enthusiasm on it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/16/2006 Posts: 229
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CFCI is another stock we are ignoring.This stock will surprise many . “I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Mukiri wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:murchr wrote: you can add Unga...and HFCK to that list totaly agreed! been picking HFCK @15-15.5bob and Unga at below 13 bob. What is the magic behind Unga? Aguytrying wrote:There are some companies that are decent and have reasonable future prospects, but for some reason they have been neglected by investors and their prices have tanked and stagnated. and are grossly undervalued.
Is there an investment case for the following stocks? and is there anything that ails these stocks?
CAR and GENERAL
KENYA RE
NBK??( doubt on health of company)
MUMIAS
TOTAL ( especially this one)
For TOTAL did the share actions by parent company cause too much dilution? Please say more about Total, I'm curious as to why nobody seems to share your enthusiasm on it. I didnt include UNGA despite it being undervalued and a great company, because it has rallied in the last year. HFCK was a done deal for me. TOTAL, i also have question marks?? The parent company was awarded shares, i dont know how dilutive they were. MUMIAS, what about comesa rules will it trim they profits?? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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uchumi wrote:CFCI is another stock we are ignoring.This stock will surprise many . ...CFCI will surprise many not because its a great company but because it has some pushers behind it...i remember the days when total waz amongst the top in terms of dividend yield....will we ever go back to that,28-32 region. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Aguytrying wrote:Mukiri wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:murchr wrote: you can add Unga...and HFCK to that list totaly agreed! been picking HFCK @15-15.5bob and Unga at below 13 bob. What is the magic behind Unga? Aguytrying wrote:There are some companies that are decent and have reasonable future prospects, but for some reason they have been neglected by investors and their prices have tanked and stagnated. and are grossly undervalued.
Is there an investment case for the following stocks? and is there anything that ails these stocks?
CAR and GENERAL
KENYA RE
NBK??( doubt on health of company)
MUMIAS
TOTAL ( especially this one)
For TOTAL did the share actions by parent company cause too much dilution? Please say more about Total, I'm curious as to why nobody seems to share your enthusiasm on it. I didnt include UNGA despite it being undervalued and a great company, because it has rallied in the last year. HFCK was a done deal for me. TOTAL, i also have question marks?? The parent company was awarded shares, i dont know how dilutive they were. MUMIAS, what about comesa rules will it trim they profits?? Definately, esp this year when the usual suspects will be busy at work "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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CFCIH: Insurance company accounting is vague. And I (for some reason) do NOT trust the S.Africans... See what they did with CFC after Stanbic bought it. I am not convinced minority shareholders got the best deal when the swaps took place. Kenya-Re: Gov't control scares me. KPLC started having cashflow problems after GoK ended up with 51%. They refused the politically expedient tariff increase which was due KPLC & highlighted in the Rights IM. KPLC could & should have sued but did not coz GoK owns 51%. Another is KQ now that GoK has a larger shareholding vs KLM. Will GoK 'buy' peace with the 'electorate' using politically expedient decisions? So will Kenya-Re suffer similar problems? Will it pay out on losses it should not? Does Kenya-Re have the ability to compete without government protection? Unga: The Chairperson & CEO's statement [Annual Report] states that the next 2-3 years will see declining margins due to competition, high commodity prices & reduced spending power. I think it will pull through but not as dominant as it is today. City Trust: What a gem. It quietly plodded along earning dividends [shown as its main income] from I&M Bank. With the 'Reverse Takeover' it has exploded with the true(r) value revealed. Smart investment in I&M Bank that has paid off very well for City Trust since I&M is now in fast growing Rwanda, almost virgin Tanzania & even Mauritius. It will probably do a major split to bring the share price in line with other banks. City Trust: 400/- SCBK: 240/- (2:1) but it is expected to split in 2013 DTB: 124/- (4:1) NIC: 40/- (10:1) Equity: 25/- (16:1) KCB: 30/- (13:1) Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/11/2012 Posts: 12 Location: Bermuda
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Kenya Re always baffles me.....in the meantime, D&B are very bullish with Total. Check this out: http://www.dyerandblairo...search%20Note_141212.pdf...When they count the men who built Kenya, will you be in the list? I choose to go long term....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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VituVingiSana wrote:CFCIH: Insurance company accounting is vague. And I (for some reason) do NOT trust the S.Africans... See what they did with CFC after Stanbic bought it. I am not convinced minority shareholders got the best deal when the swaps took place.
Kenya-Re: Gov't control scares me. KPLC started having cashflow problems after GoK ended up with 51%. They refused the politically expedient tariff increase which was due KPLC & highlighted in the Rights IM. KPLC could & should have sued but did not coz GoK owns 51%. Another is KQ now that GoK has a larger shareholding vs KLM. Will GoK 'buy' peace with the 'electorate' using politically expedient decisions?
So will Kenya-Re suffer similar problems? Will it pay out on losses it should not? Does Kenya-Re have the ability to compete without government protection?
Unga: The Chairperson & CEO's statement [Annual Report] states that the next 2-3 years will see declining margins due to competition, high commodity prices & reduced spending power. I think it will pull through but not as dominant as it is today.
City Trust: What a gem. It quietly plodded along earning dividends [shown as its main income] from I&M Bank. With the 'Reverse Takeover' it has exploded with the true(r) value revealed. Smart investment in I&M Bank that has paid off very well for City Trust since I&M is now in fast growing Rwanda, almost virgin Tanzania & even Mauritius. It will probably do a major split to bring the share price in line with other banks.
City Trust: 400/-
SCBK: 240/- (2:1) but it is expected to split in 2013
DTB: 124/- (4:1)
NIC: 40/- (10:1)
Equity: 25/- (16:1)
KCB: 30/- (13:1) @VVS are you of the opinion that GOK is out to finish all companies that its invests in why has it not done that to KCB? Enzi za Nyayo ziliisha. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Kenya-Re: Gov't control scares me. KPLC started having cashflow problems after GoK ended up with 51%. They refused the politically expedient tariff increase which was due KPLC & highlighted in the Rights IM. KPLC could & should have sued but did not coz GoK owns 51%. Another is KQ now that GoK has a larger shareholding vs KLM. Will GoK 'buy' peace with the 'electorate' using politically expedient decisions?
So will Kenya-Re suffer similar problems? Will it pay out on losses it should not? Does Kenya-Re have the ability to compete without government protection? @VVS are you aware of all the re branding and management changes going on at Kenya re? The government plans to fatten the profitability & efficiency of the firm before ceding majority of its stake to a strategic investor in line with with its grand privatisation plan!! Lets not be stuck in the Moi days!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Total is recovering from the loses, you can check the Third Quarter results. It unfortunate that this year they will not make a profit nor declare a dividend, but come the next year, Total will be back to the game. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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Unga - undervaluation of property and land in possession. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,129 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:CFCIH: Insurance company accounting is vague. And I (for some reason) do NOT trust the S.Africans... See what they did with CFC after Stanbic bought it. I am not convinced minority shareholders got the best deal when the swaps took place.
Kenya-Re: Gov't control scares me. KPLC started having cashflow problems after GoK ended up with 51%. They refused the politically expedient tariff increase which was due KPLC & highlighted in the Rights IM. KPLC could & should have sued but did not coz GoK owns 51%. Another is KQ now that GoK has a larger shareholding vs KLM. Will GoK 'buy' peace with the 'electorate' using politically expedient decisions?
So will Kenya-Re suffer similar problems? Will it pay out on losses it should not? Does Kenya-Re have the ability to compete without government protection?
Unga: The Chairperson & CEO's statement [Annual Report] states that the next 2-3 years will see declining margins due to competition, high commodity prices & reduced spending power. I think it will pull through but not as dominant as it is today.
City Trust: What a gem. It quietly plodded along earning dividends [shown as its main income] from I&M Bank. With the 'Reverse Takeover' it has exploded with the true(r) value revealed. Smart investment in I&M Bank that has paid off very well for City Trust since I&M is now in fast growing Rwanda, almost virgin Tanzania & even Mauritius. It will probably do a major split to bring the share price in line with other banks.
City Trust: 400/-
SCBK: 240/- (2:1) but it is expected to split in 2013
DTB: 124/- (4:1)
NIC: 40/- (10:1)
Equity: 25/- (16:1)
KCB: 30/- (13:1) @VVS are you of the opinion that GOK is out to finish all companies that its invests in why has it not done that to KCB? Enzi za Nyayo ziliisha. I thought I was clear about the 'control' aspect by GoK. If I was not, let be clarify. KenRe & KPLC are controlled by GoK. In KQ, it has significant influence being the largest shareholder (30%+) vs KLM. GoK has a much smaller stake (17.63%) in KCB thus it's influence has waned significantly. If the 'other' shareholders ganged up, it could defeat GoK in any vote. The 'large' individual shareholders, foreign shareholders & local institutional shareholders own more shares (combined) than GoK. BTW, NSSF with 7.6% is a wild card. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Someone mentioned Pan African, what do you think?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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dunkang wrote:Total is recovering from the loses, you can check the Third Quarter results.
It unfortunate that this year they will not make a profit nor declare a dividend, but come the next year, Total will be back to the game. Has DB considered the potential dilution by the preference shares to the parent co? Life is short. Live passionately.
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