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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Bloomberg >>> Kenya Stocks Seen Repeating Best Rally on Violence-Free Election>>> http://www.businessweek.com/new...n-violence-free-election
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Bloomberg >>> Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index, Year To Date: +297.61%, World's Best >>> http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IBVC:IND
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Last year the Caracas index rallied 79.2%. This year it has rallied 297.61%. The steriod 2yr rally has been powered by the market pricing in a Chavez exit. In short a sickly Chavez is the steriod! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Tana River erupts again  Such is what keeps investors at bay - The Government being unable to provide security *Sigh* GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Week on week, turnover rose to KSh.3.10bn from KSh.1.47bn posted the previous week, the number of shares traded stood at 121M against 118M the previous week.
The NSE 20 Share Index was up 1.55% during the week to stand at 4119.10 points.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.18% during the week to settle at 94.13 points.
FTSE NSE Kenya 15 Index was up 1.37% during the week to stand at 123.78 points.
FTSE NSE Kenya 25 Index was up 1.26% during the week to stand at 126.62 points
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,927
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Tana River erupts again Such is what keeps investors at bay - The Government being unable to provide security *Sigh* And you are almost scared what will happen as we approach March 4th, the big day for Kenya! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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The economy bottomed out in H1 & bounced back in Q3 so ahem..*looks-around*whispers* "Ni chapaa tutaunda, ama?"
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:The economy bottomed out in H1 & bounced back in Q3 so ahem..*looks-around*whispers* "Ni chapaa tutaunda, ama?" You betcha! Just one more roadblock to overcome sometime around March. Inspector General better get to work! GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:The economy bottomed out in H1 & bounced back in Q3 so ahem..*looks-around*whispers* "Ni chapaa tutaunda, ama?" You betcha! Just one more roadblock to overcome sometime around March. Inspector General better get to work! Yes sir. A lot more possibilities are springing up, mind gone OD. Now that the fiscal end of things are up, monetary works will resign in confidence. Next MPC will be the clarion call ~ January real quick!
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/6/2009 Posts: 78
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You know the NSE has bottomed out when no one wants to buy shares
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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jaykay wrote:You know the NSE has bottomed out when no one wants to buy shares those who make the bold move to buy at such times make a windfall. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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jaykay wrote:You know the NSE has bottomed out when no one wants to buy shares That was in Dec last year... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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One of the most radical proposals recommends that the level of exposure pension funds can have in ordinary and preference shares be slashed from the current 70 per cent to between 20 per cent and 40 per cent of total investments as it is in Chile and Nigeria.http://www.businessdaily...8/-/11peskm/-/index.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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^Mmm...provides for more local & foreign investor accomodation ~ increased availablity/liquidity + volatility
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:BAT closes @472/- (new all time high) and on course to test 500/- while EABL continues posting all time highs aiming 300/- $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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NSE 20-share index up 21.44 points ( 0.51%) to close at 4,212.49 GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote: The overbought levels have been reset and the bollinger bands flattened to neutral. Volume is also building up. The chances of a breakout outweigh breakdown. I expect to see the likes of KCB, Mpesa bank, EABL, BAT, Equity, SCBK, ARM and Bamburi to continue stretching the 2012 highs. Seems January will explode into a huge rally when trading desks are in full operation both locally and abroad. I disappeared for 16 days for a deserved break and coming back the rally is still intact confirming the breakout above the 5yr falling trend line (on the MSCI index) is gathering strength despite near term elections!? Bulls climb walls of worry; most wazuans are a worried lot at the moment.
MSCI KE index is on course to test the all time high of 1210.21 set back on June 5 2008. Today it should close above 1200 points as per the heavyweight blue chips rally. However, RSI is so overbought at 90s level and some correction is on the cards for some bluechip counters though should be shallow.
NSE20 today has closed @4212 vaulting above 4200 and above the 2012 high @4171. NSE20 RSI is also overbought, above 70s now and a correction is expected though should be shallow.
Despite the fact that I still expect the bulls to remain strong, I need to see volume swelling to hold up the deck to avoid sharp corrections towards March - may be triggered by a run off outcome, which is very likely from the political patterns.
As for my picks I'll remain in Mpesa bank and Kengen. I expect to see rotation from banks into industrials. I'm also going to bet (speculate) on insurance industry (very risky due to elections) via Jubilee. This is betting that political polls will be non violent. Jubilee stands to make good gains if the political premiums are not cashed in due to peaceful elections. Expect insurance firms to rally post peaceful elections. So for Q1 2013, I'll be "cautiously bullish" with those 3 counters (SCOM, KEGN and JUB). I would have liked to add to KCB, but since the 25/- correction didn't materialize, I will let it pass by.
Pray for peaceful elections and happy 2013 
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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More to pray is world friendly leaders "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:The overbought levels have been reset and the bollinger bands flattened to neutral. Volume is also building up. The chances of a breakout outweigh breakdown. I expect to see the likes of KCB, Mpesa bank, EABL, BAT, Equity, SCBK, ARM and Bamburi to continue stretching the 2012 highs. Seems January will explode into a huge rally when trading desks are in full operation both locally and abroad. I disappeared for 16 days for a deserved break and coming back the rally is still intact confirming the breakout above the 5yr falling trend line (on the MSCI index) is gathering strength despite near term elections!? Bulls climb walls of worry; most wazuans are a worried lot at the moment.
MSCI KE index is on course to test the all time high of 1210.21 set back on June 5 2008. Today it should close above 1200 points as per the heavyweight blue chips rally. However, RSI is so overbought at 90s level and some correction is on the cards for some bluechip counters though should be shallow.
NSE20 today has closed @4212 vaulting above 4200 and above the 2012 high @4171. NSE20 RSI is also overbought, above 70s now and a correction is expected though should be shallow.
Despite the fact that I still expect the bulls to remain strong, I need to see volume swelling to hold up the deck to avoid sharp corrections towards March - may be triggered by a run off outcome, which is very likely from the political patterns.
As for my picks I'll remain in Mpesa bank and Kengen. I expect to see rotation from banks into industrials. I'm also going to bet (speculate) on insurance industry (very risky due to elections) via Jubilee. This is betting that political polls will be non violent. Jubilee stands to make good gains if the political premiums are not cashed in due to peaceful elections. Expect insurance firms to rally post peaceful elections. So for Q1 2013, I'll be "cautiously bullish" with those 3 counters (SCOM, KEGN and JUB). I would have liked to add to KCB, but since the 25/- correction didn't materialize, I will let it pass by.
Pray for peaceful elections and happy 2013
Boss, you need to open a thread on the same, something like @stockmaster's. Your predictions are on point, but I'm betting a friendly discussion would be welcome, no? eg Today's amazing rally of JH from 180 to 194, is 194 a good entry point? Where do you foresee this stock, say just before election? @stockmaster and @contrarian are talking about holding cash (the worried lot), do you intend to cash out? What would make you do so? And when would you do so?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mukiri - holding some cash is always encouraged in a bear or bull market, but depends on which side is stronger. Since the bulls are in charge I don't see the point of holding a lot of cash. I intend to cash out 50% on mpesa bank if it does rally to 5.80 since it is beyond fundies. That's the cash i'll hold. As for Jubilee, current the rally is on minute volume - not good price entry. However it is still cheap on trailing P/E and better on forward P/E. I prefer the 180-200 price range before elections. If the political bet (post election peace) works out the price should target 250/- and above. The elections is baking fear in the market. I like that since it keeps the prices on a range bound leash for slow accumulation aka a sideways market. So far the foreigners have bet billions on the bull side which means they foresee no elections blues. Should it work out, there will be mean supply for most bluechips; buyers will get it rough... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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