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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/12/2012 Posts: 92
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stocksmaster wrote:the deal wrote:Bull being fattened before slaughter I think...but things going horribly wrong at the moment for cash investors I prefer to hold cash...........time to multiply cash will come. It is times like this that i let my gut instinct (enteric nervous system) rule. The cow does indeed look fat enough for slaughter........ Happy Hunting. I like the way this feels. the rally is mainly due to fed easing...and the foreigners are in buying mode.stock markets rise due to easy money ...add the January effect and we have enough reason. always remember in behavioral finance stockd rise in pessimism and fall in optimism. the VIX index has remained pretty flat the whole of 2012 at about 20s showing that investors are not a worried lot.Things are easy like sunday morning. The cliff doesn't seem to worry the bulls and the short sellers are being squeezed with remarkable efficiency. VIX reading has recently plunged by record levels,showing complacency and optimism .....big things are about to happen...
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Every season has its own unique opportunities.Every time investors say ''this time its different''...whereas things turn out the same always. Money is at stake and my gut feeling tells me that as soon as companies announce their full year results especially banks and books close, were heading south...its does no harm holding cash.Meanwhile,I am searching for an investment that can be done with little sums of money e.g 5,000 that is not related to the stock market or forex A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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While we are at it... What are the chances that 2013 could give us a "Black Swan event"? For the uninitiated, a black swan event is a low probability, high impact occurence. For instance, instead of the nse ranging between 3100-5000, it could shoot to 10,000 or collapse altogether! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Week 1: >Advance/Decline ratio 38/8 - strong buying sentiment >Four counters hit 52-week high in first week of trade http://www.businessdailyafrica....18/-/dthe4n/-/index.html.... karibu week 2
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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My approach is simple so as to not jam my thoughts is separate the known from the unknown. Thus, leveraging on a likely broad peaceful election (pocket violence allowed), thereafter deal with the unknown propaganda. That way I can make more bucks & be better placed to respond to allegations/propaganda & or 'sky is falling' type stuff later.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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^While at it, is to await to be entertained by the U.S debt ceiling circus (& sneaking in more austerity measures) in late Feb, early March.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/12/2012 Posts: 92
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the Fed has hinted this week that it might stop QE...interest rates are rising.
The S&P is at 5 years high.
be flexible in your thinking ....look for a top as the maverick hedge funds pile on the shorts...
as it stands now I can bet on a correction of a 10-15% magnitude...but if the thing takes off its silly not to ride the bucking bronco even here at the NSE.
I like Livermore's statement that there is neither bull nor bear to the stock market, but the right side.
you never want to be the dude that cries bear! bear! when the market is rising ....but you have to be damn paranoid with the VIX at 14 ...there is data to show a sharp sell off usually ensues after the fear index plunges below 20.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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sentinel prime wrote:the Fed has hinted this week that it might stop QE...interest rates are rising.
The S&P is at 5 years high.
be flexible in your thinking ....look for a top as the maverick hedge funds pile on the shorts...
as it stands now I can bet on a correction of a 10-15% magnitude...but if the thing takes off its silly not to ride the bucking bronco even here at the NSE.
I like Livermore's statement that there is neither bull nor bear to the stock market, but the right side.
you never want to be the dude that cries bear! bear! when the market is rising ....but you have to be damn paranoid with the VIX at 14 ...there is data to show a sharp sell off usually ensues after the fear index plunges below 20.
In simple english please
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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sentinel prime wrote:the Fed has hinted this week that it might stop QE...interest rates are rising.
The S&P is at 5 years high.
be flexible in your thinking ....look for a top as the maverick hedge funds pile on the shorts...
as it stands now I can bet on a correction of a 10-15% magnitude...but if the thing takes off its silly not to ride the bucking bronco even here at the NSE.
I like Livermore's statement that there is neither bull nor bear to the stock market, but the right side.
you never want to be the dude that cries bear! bear! when the market is rising ....but you have to be damn paranoid with the VIX at 14 ...there is data to show a sharp sell off usually ensues after the fear index plunges below 20.
My thoughts exactly Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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A quick one...where are the majority of foreigners from EU, US, REST OF AFRICA OR ASIA? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/12/2012 Posts: 92
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murchr wrote:A quick one...where are the majority of foreigners from EU, US, REST OF AFRICA OR ASIA? lol! I can bet from US & UK.... mostly hedge funds seeking frontier markets. But whoever they are they control about 55% volume turnover ....at one time they had over 70% share.They represent at least 1000-2000 points of the index. keep an eye on their order flow. now imagine if they decide to bail out...they also have the advantage of being able to hedge their exposure by shorting the FTSE NSE index(I believe). our institutional investors have no power to hold the stampeding elephant....maybe big shot wazuans will squeeze em with the efficiency of hydraulics lol!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/13/2011 Posts: 284 Location: Nairobi
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sentinel prime wrote:stocksmaster wrote:the deal wrote:Bull being fattened before slaughter I think...but things going horribly wrong at the moment for cash investors I prefer to hold cash...........time to multiply cash will come. It is times like this that i let my gut instinct (enteric nervous system) rule. The cow does indeed look fat enough for slaughter........ Happy Hunting. I like the way this feels. the rally is mainly due to fed easing...and the foreigners are in buying mode.stock markets rise due to easy money ...add the January effect and we have enough reason. always remember in behavioral finance stockd rise in pessimism and fall in optimism.
the VIX index has remained pretty flat the whole of 2012 at about 20s showing that investors are not a worried lot.Things are easy like sunday morning. The cliff doesn't seem to worry the bulls and the short sellers are being squeezed with remarkable efficiency. VIX reading has recently plunged by record levels,showing complacency and optimism .....big things are about to happen... @sentinel i differ with u on that one. studies on Bhval finance holds that pessimism with individual investors will result to a drop in prices with optimism resultin 2 a rise in stock mkt prices. This may differ with institutional investors who are considered to b more rational. Bottom Line: With elections around th corner n th experience of PEV, there will b pessimism in the market n th stock mkt prices will have to fall even thought all fundamentals remain constant.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/16/2011 Posts: 196 Location: united states of africa
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guru267 wrote:sentinel prime wrote:the Fed has hinted this week that it might stop QE...interest rates are rising.
The S&P is at 5 years high.
be flexible in your thinking ....look for a top as the maverick hedge funds pile on the shorts...
as it stands now I can bet on a correction of a 10-15% magnitude...but if the thing takes off its silly not to ride the bucking bronco even here at the NSE.
I like Livermore's statement that there is neither bull nor bear to the stock market, but the right side.
you never want to be the dude that cries bear! bear! when the market is rising ....but you have to be damn paranoid with the VIX at 14 ...there is data to show a sharp sell off usually ensues after the fear index plunges below 20.
My thoughts exactly When the FED's stop printing, interest rates will definitely rise up as cash moves from the treasuries followed by the stocks and will be stacked up in commodities but I don't think that they are about to stop any time soon as they want Obama to look "pretty" and if they stop, dead cat dead rat. Livermore (Jesse Livermore) is a dude who back in the 1920's or 1930's used to be a trader and they actually wrote a book about him, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Interesting read. A Energy.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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^If US interest rates are rising again as indicated here, then flows should be to treasuries. Anyway, common sense is that investors will only continue to earn near nothing in the US money mkts for so long, thus the Fed will have to respond by yanking rates. What we're ignoring is the many who've been suckered back into mortgages/debt post-09 as rates will go up again & BOOM! Rates might just keep spiralling up & up especially when the Fed loses its current manipulative powers as the real economy rolls back further - and that's when the demons of QE Infinite* will show; Inflation Central
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:My approach is simple so as to not jam my thoughts is separate the known from the unknown. Thus, leveraging on a likely broad peaceful election (pocket violence allowed), thereafter deal with the unknown propaganda. That way I can make more bucks & be better placed to respond to allegations/propaganda & or 'sky is falling' type stuff later. My sweet brother. I use the very same approach. Great minds think alike! HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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With the general election nearing each day, my focus is on individual counters and not the whole market. I have never had a foreign currency account but I am considering openning one very soon.Which bank has such an account at the least fees,because I intend to buy the Rand as we approach the elections. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/16/2011 Posts: 196 Location: united states of africa
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[quote=Cde Monomotapa]^If US interest rates are rising again as indicated here, then flows should be to treasuries. Anyway, common sense is that investors will only continue to earn near nothing in the US money mkts for so long, thus the Fed will have to respond by yanking rates. What we're ignoring is the many who've been suckered back into mortgages/debt post-09 as rates will go up again & BOOM! Rates might just keep spiralling up & up especially when the Fed loses its current manipulative powers as the real economy rolls back further - and that's when the demons of QE Infinite* will show; Inflation Central [/quote I think that there will be a new currency system backed by something since these people are in the business of devaluing the dollar while others continue drinking the kool aid. As for those who fell for the mortgages trap, I think that there will be catastrophe and the same results that we saw in 2008 will happen again but this time, it will be big. When, I really don't know but I'll have to wait it out. So, what I will do is to look at these four elements, i.e when they start cashing out in ascending order only to be left with one vehicle that will never go bust for them.so as to know when to bail out 1. Gold 2. U.S Treasuries. 3. Municipal bonds. 4. New mortgages/credit. When, I really don't know but lets wait and see. Energy.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Which bank has such an account at the least fees Co op has USD, EUR, STERLING accounts.. 1. Minimum opening balance ($50, €50, £50) 2. Minimum operating balance ($50, €50, £50) 3. No maintenance fees 4. No deposit fees below ($10,000, €10,000, £10,000) 5. No withdrawal fees below ($2,500, €2,500, £2,500) 6. Small denomination deposit charges ($2, €2, £2) Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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The bulls now having their way, and say at NSE after knocking off the bears around noon on the 1st trading day of the week. Been a bruising battle Direction for the week now set. Will they rule for the entire week? Anyone's guess. Large caps leading the way! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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