I like the way this feels.

the rally is mainly due to fed easing...and the foreigners are in buying mode.stock markets rise due to easy money ...add the January effect and we have enough reason.

always remember in behavioral finance stockd rise in pessimism and fall in optimism.

the VIX index has remained pretty flat the whole of 2012 at about 20s showing that investors are not a worried lot.Things are easy like sunday morning. The cliff doesn't seem to worry the bulls and the short sellers are being squeezed with remarkable efficiency.

VIX reading has recently plunged by record levels,showing complacency and optimism .....big things are about to happen...

While we are at it... What are the chances that 2013 could give us a "Black Swan event"? For the uninitiated, a black swan event is a low probability, high impact occurence. For instance, instead of the nse ranging between 3100-5000, it could shoot to 10,000 or collapse altogether!

My approach is simple so as to not jam my thoughts is separate the known from the unknown. Thus, leveraging on a likely broad peaceful election (pocket violence allowed), thereafter deal with the unknown propaganda. That way I can make more bucks & be better placed to respond to allegations/propaganda & or 'sky is falling' type stuff later.

the Fed has hinted this week that it might stop QE...interest rates are rising.

The S&P is at 5 years high.

be flexible in your thinking ....look for a top as the maverick hedge funds pile on the shorts...

as it stands now I can bet on a correction of a 10-15% magnitude...but if the thing takes off its silly not to ride the bucking bronco even here at the NSE.

I like Livermore's statement that there is neither bull nor bear to the stock market, but the right side.

you never want to be the dude that cries bear! bear! when the market is rising ....but you have to be damn paranoid with the VIX at 14 ...there is data to show a sharp sell off usually ensues after the fear index plunges below 20.

My thoughts exactly

lol! I can bet from US & UK.... mostly hedge funds seeking frontier markets.
But whoever they are they control about 55% volume turnover ....at one time they had over 70% share.They represent at least 1000-2000 points of the index. keep an eye on their order flow.

now imagine if they decide to bail out...they also have the advantage of being able to hedge their exposure by shorting the FTSE NSE index(I believe).

our institutional investors have no power to hold the stampeding elephant....maybe big shot wazuans will squeeze em with the efficiency of hydraulics lol!

When the FED's stop printing, interest rates will definitely rise up as cash moves from the treasuries followed by the stocks and will be stacked up in commodities but I don't think that they are about to stop any time soon as they want Obama to look "pretty" and if they stop, dead cat dead rat.

Livermore (Jesse Livermore) is a dude who back in the 1920's or 1930's used to be a trader and they actually wrote a book about him, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Interesting read.
A

My sweet brother. I use the very same approach. Great minds think alike!

[quote=Cde Monomotapa]^If US interest rates are rising again as indicated here, then flows should be to treasuries. Anyway, common sense is that investors will only continue to earn near nothing in the US money mkts for so long, thus the Fed will have to respond by yanking rates. What we're ignoring is the many who've been suckered back into mortgages/debt post-09 as rates will go up again & BOOM! Rates might just keep spiralling up & up especially when the Fed loses its current manipulative powers as the real economy rolls back further - and that's when the demons of QE Infinite* will show; Inflation Central [/quote

I think that there will be a new currency system backed by something since these people are in the business of devaluing the dollar while others continue drinking the kool aid. As for those who fell for the mortgages trap, I think that there will be catastrophe and the same results that we saw in 2008 will happen again but this time, it will be big.

When, I really don't know but I'll have to wait it out.

So, what I will do is to look at these four elements, i.e when they start cashing out in ascending order only to be left with one vehicle that will never go bust for them.so as to know when to bail out
1. Gold
2. U.S Treasuries.
3. Municipal bonds.
4. New mortgages/credit.

When, I really don't know but lets wait and see.

The bulls now having their way, and say at NSE after knocking off the bears around noon on the 1st trading day of the week. Been a bruising battle Direction for the week now set. Will they rule for the entire week? Anyone's guess. Large caps leading the way!