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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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My crystal ball tells me the dollar won't go past kes 100. I will hold cash in dollars, euro and Rand. 50, 40, 10 in that order If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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the shares that rallied hard last year with a few exceptions it would be wise to get out now. the euphoria of nse not falling is at fever pitch here. how quickly we forget. however for grossly undervalued shares and high dividend yielding ones it is better to stay put. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:the shares that rallied hard last year with a few exceptions it would be wise to get out now. the euphoria of nse not falling is at fever pitch here. how quickly we forget. however for grossly undervalued shares and high dividend yielding ones it is better to stay put. Isn't that the challenge? Which stocks are 'undervalued' & which stocks will pay a good dividend yield going forward? The criteria for 'under-valued' varies substantially among investors. The appropriate dividend yield varies too. For some 5% is OK, while others expect 15%. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the shares that rallied hard last year with a few exceptions it would be wise to get out now. the euphoria of nse not falling is at fever pitch here. how quickly we forget. however for grossly undervalued shares and high dividend yielding ones it is better to stay put. Isn't that the challenge? Which stocks are 'undervalued' & which stocks will pay a good dividend yield going forward? The criteria for 'under-valued' varies substantially among investors. The appropriate dividend yield varies too. For some 5% is OK, while others expect 15%. true old sage, true. i rem buffet quiping that for him the time to buy stocks is not determined by the day of the week, the time of the year, an election year and so on . id leave it open for each investor to decide . personally great companies trading at a significant discount to NAV (say 0.7) and div yield approaching 10% The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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[quote=the deal]I have shared my 2013 strategy here http://www.contrarianinv...-2013-ultimate-strategy[/quote]  Thank you and Success. Let's see what we can borrow
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the shares that rallied hard last year with a few exceptions it would be wise to get out now. the euphoria of nse not falling is at fever pitch here. how quickly we forget. however for grossly undervalued shares and high dividend yielding ones it is better to stay put. Isn't that the challenge? Which stocks are 'undervalued' & which stocks will pay a good dividend yield going forward? The criteria for 'under-valued' varies substantially among investors. The appropriate dividend yield varies too. For some 5% is OK, while others expect 15%. true old sage, true. i rem buffet quiping that for him the time to buy stocks is not determined by the day of the week, the time of the year, an election year and so on . id leave it open for each investor to decide . personally great companies trading at a significant discount to NAV (say 0.7) and div yield approaching 10% Examples?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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Mukiri wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the shares that rallied hard last year with a few exceptions it would be wise to get out now. the euphoria of nse not falling is at fever pitch here. how quickly we forget. however for grossly undervalued shares and high dividend yielding ones it is better to stay put. Isn't that the challenge? Which stocks are 'undervalued' & which stocks will pay a good dividend yield going forward? The criteria for 'under-valued' varies substantially among investors. The appropriate dividend yield varies too. For some 5% is OK, while others expect 15%. true old sage, true. i rem buffet quiping that for him the time to buy stocks is not determined by the day of the week, the time of the year, an election year and so on . id leave it open for each investor to decide . personally great companies trading at a significant discount to NAV (say 0.7) and div yield approaching 10% Examples? HFCK, KCB, BAT
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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murchr wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:murchr wrote:the deal wrote:The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig? Watch the news boss...look at Mathare, Tana River, strange paraphernalia in Kajiado, yet the nominations have not started and the elections are 3 months away. These are indications that things will not go as we wish. No rigging will be done, but the losers might might just refuse to bite the bullet. @murchr, see, S&P, Moody and Fitch have assigned Kenya a “stable” outlook based on expectations of fair economic growth, falling inflation and a bet that the March 2013 polls will be peaceful linkForeign investors show faith in NSE listed companies ahead of elections link Mwekezaji, these ratings were done sometime back...i guess oct/nov and they are bound to change...depending on how we behave. The foreign policy website ranks Kenya as a hotspot for violence this year. Investors dont only rely on S&P, they go thru our papers daily looking at policy change and any form of violence that is reported. I hope for the best tho. Watching the market and foreigners remain active on the buy side. Check KCB, Safari, Uchumi, Scangroup, BAT, Kenya Power .....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mwekez@ji wrote:murchr wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:murchr wrote:the deal wrote:The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig? Watch the news boss...look at Mathare, Tana River, strange paraphernalia in Kajiado, yet the nominations have not started and the elections are 3 months away. These are indications that things will not go as we wish. No rigging will be done, but the losers might might just refuse to bite the bullet. @murchr, see, S&P, Moody and Fitch have assigned Kenya a “stable” outlook based on expectations of fair economic growth, falling inflation and a bet that the March 2013 polls will be peaceful linkForeign investors show faith in NSE listed companies ahead of elections link Mwekezaji, these ratings were done sometime back...i guess oct/nov and they are bound to change...depending on how we behave. The foreign policy website ranks Kenya as a hotspot for violence this year. Investors dont only rely on S&P, they go thru our papers daily looking at policy change and any form of violence that is reported. I hope for the best tho. Watching the market and foreigners remain active on the buy side. Check KCB, Safari, Uchumi, Scangroup, BAT, Kenya Power ..... How about we talk after the 1st quarter... "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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murchr wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:murchr wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:murchr wrote:the deal wrote:The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig? Watch the news boss...look at Mathare, Tana River, strange paraphernalia in Kajiado, yet the nominations have not started and the elections are 3 months away. These are indications that things will not go as we wish. No rigging will be done, but the losers might might just refuse to bite the bullet. @murchr, see, S&P, Moody and Fitch have assigned Kenya a “stable” outlook based on expectations of fair economic growth, falling inflation and a bet that the March 2013 polls will be peaceful linkForeign investors show faith in NSE listed companies ahead of elections link Mwekezaji, these ratings were done sometime back...i guess oct/nov and they are bound to change...depending on how we behave. The foreign policy website ranks Kenya as a hotspot for violence this year. Investors dont only rely on S&P, they go thru our papers daily looking at policy change and any form of violence that is reported. I hope for the best tho. Watching the market and foreigners remain active on the buy side. Check KCB, Safari, Uchumi, Scangroup, BAT, Kenya Power ..... How about we talk after the 1st quarter... No probs,we talk beginning Q2! Sisi tutakuwa humu humu  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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obiero wrote:Mukiri wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the shares that rallied hard last year with a few exceptions it would be wise to get out now. the euphoria of nse not falling is at fever pitch here. how quickly we forget. however for grossly undervalued shares and high dividend yielding ones it is better to stay put. Isn't that the challenge? Which stocks are 'undervalued' & which stocks will pay a good dividend yield going forward? The criteria for 'under-valued' varies substantially among investors. The appropriate dividend yield varies too. For some 5% is OK, while others expect 15%. true old sage, true. i rem buffet quiping that for him the time to buy stocks is not determined by the day of the week, the time of the year, an election year and so on . id leave it open for each investor to decide . personally great companies trading at a significant discount to NAV (say 0.7) and div yield approaching 10% Examples? HFCK, KCB, BAT BAT is out of reach for mare mortals like us, wanjuku Thieves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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And NSE investors are still in the monies less than 2months to elections. Better quit the noise maker's club & take the plunge @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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ION, I hear @Hisah has traded his leave quarterway through for the traders desk @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Bull being fattened before slaughter I think...but things going horribly wrong at the moment for cash investors
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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Hunderwear wrote: The discovery of oil in kenya changes alot of theseassumptions.This is because US cannot afford not to benefit from the party.They were late for the party and wont try any stupid move else China wil have a laugh all the way.Sanctions wont work as China wil happily ignore them.As such Zim way is a far dream whichever team wins.However the perception created wil definately offer investors yet another buying opportunity.Am waiting for the dip before elections and plunge into stocks.My only prayer is whoever loses accepts our verdict and we will have peace!!!!! I partially agree with you and would also add the opening up the market in Ethiopia through the lamu port (This is Huge) and the south Sudan( small market huge for fuel). Please don't forget Kenya is a key cog in political stability and therefore future business opportunities in Somali. Sanctions would depend on the prevailing politics between the west and the east at the time and who stands to win or lose.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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the deal wrote:Bull being fattened before slaughter I think...but things going horribly wrong at the moment for cash investors I prefer to hold cash...........time to multiply cash will come. It is times like this that i let my gut instinct (enteric nervous system) rule. The cow does indeed look fat enough for slaughter........ Happy Hunting.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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the deal wrote:Bull being fattened before slaughter I think...but things going horribly wrong at the moment for cash investors No one knows the hour the bulls will be heading to the slaughterhouse,but hey.....we making money , at least for now!   @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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@Hunderwear check you gmail i have sent you a message about lapsset
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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stocksmaster wrote:the deal wrote:Bull being fattened before slaughter I think...but things going horribly wrong at the moment for cash investors I prefer to hold cash...........time to multiply cash will come. It is times like this that i let my gut instinct (enteric nervous system) rule. The cow does indeed look fat enough for slaughter........ Happy Hunting. Some of us made plenty of returns in 2012.. (77% portfolio growth)We hardly need to risk heavily in Q1 2013.. For us investors it makes more sense to exit partially especially with the uncertainty that is set to come.. When things become clearer we will jump right back into the NSE and ride the vision 2030 wave!! Besides i still hold some really undervalued stocks like Kenya Re just in case a miracle happens and Jubilee loses on march 4th! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
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