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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
guru267
#61 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 2:02:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Have we ever heard about Pride coming just before a fall!!!
Everyone here that thinks that an uhuru ruto presidency will not hurt Kenya's economy by causing uncertainty is simply delusional!!

What makes anyone think the international community will even recognise Uhuru as Kenya's president and yet they refused to deal with him as finance minister after he was charged?

Do we know that even though the bill of rights allows these suspected criminals to run for office chapter 6 bars them from holding public office! An uhuru presidency is a direct violation of the constitution..

Does anyone think Kenya is the only emerging market or the only country to discover oil, or the only country to have infrastructure expansion!! In Africa investors are spoilt for choice so Kenya is expendable to them if there is uncertainty!

If Uhuru is elected the stock market and the shilling will crash!! If any other candidate is elected we will soar past 5,000 on the NSE and stability of the shilling will prevail!! SIMPLE...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
BGL
#62 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 2:14:06 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
This post has lost focus and mutated to a contest of some sorts. Herein are some verified facts and statistics comparing and contrasting Kenya and Namibia. But, Wakenya tuko wengi tu sana compared to Namibians, kila siku ya kwanza- ya pili-ya tatu tuna produce mtoto.... hio ni kukosa adabu. It also appears that Namibia is also an unequal society in wealth distribution just like Kenya is.

NAMIBIA

GDP (purchasing power parity):$15.93 billion (2011 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):$12.33 billion (2011 est.)
GDP - real growth rate: 4.9% (2011 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):$7,500 (2011 est.)[/b]
GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 7.6%
industry: 34.1%
services: 58.3% (2011 est.)
Labor force: 803,700 (2011 est.)
Unemployment rate: 51.2% (2008 est.)
Market value of publicly traded shares: $1.152 billion (31 December 2011)
Population below poverty line:55.8%
Population: 2,165,828 (July 2012 est.)
Ethnic groups: Namibia
black 87.5%, white 6%, mixed 6.5%
note: about 50% of the population belong to the Ovambo tribe and 9% to the Kavangos tribe; other ethnic groups include Herero 7%, Damara 7%, Nama 5%, Caprivian 4%, Bushmen 3%, Baster 2%, Tswana 0.5%



KENYA

GDP (purchasing power parity):$71.21 billion (2011 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):$33.51 billion (2011 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:4.4% (2011 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP): $1,700 (2011 est.)[/b]
GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 24%
industry: 15%
services: 61% (2011 est.)
Labor force:18.39 million (2011 est.)
Unemployment rate:40% (2008 est.)
Population below poverty line:50% (2000 est.)
Market value of publicly traded shares:$10.2 billion (31 December 2011)
Population: 43,013,341 (July 2012 est.)
Ethnic groups: Kenya
Kikuyu 22%, Luhya 14%, Luo 13%, Kalenjin 12%, Kamba 11%, Kisii 6%, Meru 6%, other African 15%, non-African (Asian, European, and Arab) 1%


SOURCE A world factbook:
Kenya http://tinyurl.com/2do2fb
Namibia http://tinyurl.com/yu6eoh
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
murchr
#63 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 2:36:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
@guru267, If the people of Kenya elect Uhuruto...I dont see the Int community doing much apart from accepting it, they really dont care about wanjiku...but their interests, what they will do is ensure that they(uhuruto) dance to their music...look at the examples world over, Gadaffi...they did business with him, including awarding his son with a PHD degree from LSE.
For a while, M7 was refered to a dictator but now the man is a saint...Even Zimbabwe's Mugabe is a darling of the US now the US agreed to a compromise allowing Mugabe to export diamonds.

http://www.reuters.com/a...a-idUSN1E7A11DY20111102

The issue is..investors dont know what big brother(s) will do, or what is behind the scene(s)...they dont like that so in the meantime...they will run and place their bets in other markets. (My 2cents)
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Lolest!
#64 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 7:44:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
@murchr, I like your thoughts. I think the issue is not a Jubilee govt per se but the likelihood of them skipping trial and exposing us to sanctions.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
jonna
#65 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 7:51:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/16/2011
Posts: 196
Location: united states of africa
murchr wrote:
@guru267, If the people of Kenya elect Uhuruto...I dont see the Int community doing much apart from accepting it, they really dont care about wanjiku...but their interests, what they will do is ensure that they(uhuruto) dance to their music...look at the examples world over, Gadaffi...they did business with him, including awarding his son with a PHD degree from LSE.
For a while, M7 was refered to a dictator but now the man is a saint...Even Zimbabwe's Mugabe is a darling of the US now the US agreed to a compromise allowing Mugabe to export diamonds.

http://www.reuters.com/a...a-idUSN1E7A11DY20111102

The issue is..investors dont know what big brother(s) will do, or what is behind the scene(s)...they dont like that so in the meantime...they will run and place their bets in other markets. (My 2cents)


Right on point.
Applause Applause Applause
Energy.
mwekez@ji
#66 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 9:13:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
Between 6 June 2008 and 3 March 2009 the NSE20 lost more than 3000 points despite the coalition government being formed on 8 February 2008, offcourse something bigger happened during that period...Lehman Brothers collapsed and advanced markets tanked...frontier markets like the NSE were not spared as offshore funds pulled out to cover losses...history never repeats itselfsmile smile Applause Applause Applause


>Were the GFC effects felt in such a huge way in USE, TZE and other frontier markets? Validate your hypothesis on GFC Vs frontier markets by giving us percentage of crash in different frontier markets caused by the GFC

>...history never repeats itself?????

mwekez@ji
#67 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 10:02:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
the deal wrote:
The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig?



Watch the news boss...look at Mathare, Tana River, strange paraphernalia in Kajiado, yet the nominations have not started and the elections are 3 months away. These are indications that things will not go as we wish. No rigging will be done, but the losers might might just refuse to bite the bullet.


@murchr, see, S&P, Moody and Fitch have assigned Kenya a “stable” outlook based on expectations of fair economic growth, falling inflation and a bet that the March 2013 polls will be peaceful link

Foreign investors show faith in NSE listed companies ahead of elections link
bird_man
#68 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 10:23:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
I'm using richlive & the KCB demand Vs supply looks a little crazy.Can anyone confirm a DD of 150,933,300 Vs SS of 107,400.

Is this an error?
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
the deal
#69 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 1:04:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I have shared my 2013 strategy here http://www.contrarianinv...e-2013-ultimate-strategy
MoneyMonger
#70 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 1:41:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/25/2012
Posts: 110
[quote=the deal]I have shared my 2013 strategy here http://www.contrarianinv...-2013-ultimate-strategy[/quote]

Thanks The Deal. Am on it to see what i can borrow. Cheers and success!
There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
poundfoolish
#71 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 3:19:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
Read all as well.. will indeed borrow from the advice..

thanks
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#72 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 3:52:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate?
We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks.
See you tomorrow at the market placesmile

Hehe. Watu wakipatana debe, sisi tunapatana sokosmile

Day 1 in 2013 and all the big caps i.e scom,simba,beer & cement close in positive territory.
#staying with money!!!
See you tomorrow at 0930 EAT
@SufficientlyP
youcan'tstopusnow
#73 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 3:58:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate?
We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks.
See you tomorrow at the market placesmile

Hehe. Watu wakipatana debe, sisi tunapatana sokosmile

Day 1 in 2013 and all the big caps i.e scom,simba,beer & cement close in positive territory.
#staying with money!!!
See you tomorrow at 0930 EAT

Very low turnover. Watu bado wako sikukuu mood...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Kausha
#74 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 4:32:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Certainly the first quarter will struggle. Results of non banks will not excite, politics and hopefully we won't need a run off! I would take profit during this and next week and stay in cash.

larger worry is the interest rates rising because of need to borrow to fund counties and appease the masses. Between RAO and UK i say both raiding domestic markets in 2013 to borrow to appease the voters and get devolution working. Also bear in mind CBK will have to mop up liquidity post campaigns. All in equities may not be that great this year! Bonds could also suffer excess borrowing.

Globally, Europe will be depressed and the fiscal concerns may slow down growth in America. A lot of the recovery has been QE driven, that headroom will thin post Fiscal deals done by the blues and the reds!
kaifastus
#75 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 4:44:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
Interesting discussion..Perhaps as we approach the elections and also immediately after, the direction of key macro economic indicators will become more clearer. The general public mood however is that of uncertainty. Those who have already sold are making the most noise to destabilize the market and dampen the prices for reasons all of us know.For now we wait...In cash!
MoneyMonger
#76 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 5:40:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/25/2012
Posts: 110
kaifastus wrote:
Interesting discussion..Perhaps as we approach the elections and also immediately after, the direction of key macro economic indicators will become more clearer. The general public mood however is that of uncertainty. Those who have already sold are making the most noise to destabilize the market and dampen the prices for reasons all of us know.For now we wait...In cash!


Laughing out loudly Applause
There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
murchr
#77 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 6:19:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mwekez@ji wrote:
murchr wrote:
the deal wrote:
The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig?



Watch the news boss...look at Mathare, Tana River, strange paraphernalia in Kajiado, yet the nominations have not started and the elections are 3 months away. These are indications that things will not go as we wish. No rigging will be done, but the losers might might just refuse to bite the bullet.


@murchr, see, S&P, Moody and Fitch have assigned Kenya a “stable” outlook based on expectations of fair economic growth, falling inflation and a bet that the March 2013 polls will be peaceful link

Foreign investors show faith in NSE listed companies ahead of elections link


Mwekezaji, these ratings were done sometime back...i guess oct/nov and they are bound to change...depending on how we behave. The foreign policy website ranks Kenya as a hotspot for violence this year. Investors dont only rely on S&P, they go thru our papers daily looking at policy change and any form of violence that is reported. I hope for the best tho.

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
obiero
#78 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 7:00:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,555
Location: nairobi
maka wrote:
obiero wrote:
@stocksmaster is slipping (sic) on the job. my guy, you have failed to consider expected strong posting of full year PBT results by some companies read financial sector and resultant good dividend announcements such as the assured ones from KCB and HFCK that will ring fence even the fearful foreigners.

...not really we have seen more than once where the market has failed to factor in good results,there is so much uncertainity we can never know...its all about taking that chance.

Dear brother Maka. Look at KCB shuttling into the stratosphere. I forsee KES 35 in next few weeks. Elections will not water down investor appetite for this stock in particular. Hio dividend itashikilia price juu, na ikishuka hadi 25 hivi, nitauza hata nyumba na walio ndani ili ninunue KCB!

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#79 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 7:03:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
MoneyMonger wrote:
kaifastus wrote:
Interesting discussion..Perhaps as we approach the elections and also immediately after, the direction of key macro economic indicators will become more clearer. The general public mood however is that of uncertainty. Those who have already sold are making the most noise to destabilize the market and dampen the prices for reasons all of us know.For now we wait...In cash!


Laughing out loudly Applause

Let them make noise here as we make money!!!
For every day wasted making noise is an opportunity lost. Money is made in volatility.
You ride the upward wave as volumes expand & bail out as volumes contract!
#KK in 2012 = NSE in 2013smile
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#80 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 7:08:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate?
We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks.
See you tomorrow at the market placesmile

Hehe. Watu wakipatana debe, sisi tunapatana sokosmile

Day 1 in 2013 and all the big caps i.e scom,simba,beer & cement close in positive territory.
#staying with money!!!
See you tomorrow at 0930 EAT

Very low turnover. Watu bado wako sikukuu mood...

Nop. Investors adopting a wait and see approach,sitting on cash!
@SufficientlyP
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