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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
murchr
#51 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 9:58:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Lets be sober fact is tho, that the elections are forming a cloud that is really causing jitters for investors/local and foreign. As Wazuans we should be think-tanks and not political bigots.

Quote:
The construction sector grew by 0.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 down from 1.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent in the second and first quarters respectively, new data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows.


An indication that the real estate sector is on a slow down.

Quote:
Kenya’s tourism sector has already been hit ahead of the elections because of fears of a repeat of the ethnic violence that rocked the country in 2007. The Kenya Tourist Board (KTB) said the sector recorded a decline of 23.3 per cent in tourist arrivals this year.


Surely....why do we think that the stock market shall hold put? All indications are pointing towards a decline.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#52 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 10:01:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
While I respect @stocksmaster as a seasoned & smart investor,i would like him to answer the following 2 questions below:

1) What will make the NSE move to 4800-5000 under a CORD presidency and not,say, 2300-2500 levels given his economic knowledge?
2) Why have you left out the Eagle alliance (the 3rd force), which to me,if they ascend to power could take the index post 5000 before Dec 31st?

Could money have been pouredsmile
@SufficientlyP
murchr
#53 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 10:19:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
@Sufficiently.....I will try to answer that,

1. CORD doesn't represent radical change in govt. RAO is almost like an incumbent that's why the market is perceived to be tolerant of him. As for jubilee...to investors, these chaps are ok, but they dont know how the ICC issue will play out...that uncertainty is the problem.
2. In as much as we - I included would like the Eagle to sour, we cant ignore the numbers. To me the Eagle alliance would be the best for this country.

Trust me, investors prefer stability anytime, the rest can be changed
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
jonna
#54 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 10:22:49 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/16/2011
Posts: 196
Location: united states of africa
guru267 wrote:
itz wrote:
The world is awash with liquidity and they will be parking it in emerging markets of which kenya should be a beneficiary.125-135 exchange rate...regardless of who wins it will never get there, i don't think it even breaches 95. Again if you asked a stone to give you a prediction it would probably be closer in numbers.


@itz are you for real?? Are you really this economically dumb?? Out of all the places an investor can park their money why would they do it it in a country where the sitting president and vice president are suspected war criminals??

Even without sanctions, the uncertainty around an uhuru ruto presidency can cause enough dollar outflows to send the shilling to 100+
But if there are sanctions we might be talking about 160-200 on the exchange rate!

@itz why should we dismiss @stocksmaster and believe your prediction because you sound like Robert Mugabe before he chased out the wazungu! Useless pride!!


There is some validity to what both of you are saying. On itz part, the recent action by the FED will increase liquidity and as for you Miss Guru, some of that money will find its way to the Kenyan markets since some survey investors want a piece of the action in the stock market and this is after you take into account the oil discoveries and also that investors love cheap cheap bargains. As for Robert Mugabe, the only reason he chased those crazy bald headed people out of Zimbabwe and I think the same situation is happening in South Africa is so that they reduce competition as large multi-national corps are about to set up shop.
Energy.
the deal
#55 Posted : Tuesday, January 01, 2013 10:52:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Between 6 June 2008 and 3 March 2009 the NSE20 lost more than 3000 points despite the coalition government being formed on 8 February 2008, offcourse something bigger happened during that period...Lehman Brothers collapsed and advanced markets tanked...frontier markets like the NSE were not spared as offshore funds pulled out to cover losses...history never repeats itselfsmile smile Applause Applause Applause
Cde Monomotapa
#56 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 12:04:22 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Hehe. Bunch of born-free Kenyans that didn't see their grandfolks slaving in the White Highlands. Oh well, take a trip to RSA and you'll see it. That wine you drink is the sweat & blood of black people like you.
the deal
#57 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 12:14:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Hehe. Bunch of born-free Kenyans that didn't see their grandfolks slaving in the White Highlands. Oh well, take a trip to RSA and you'll see it. That wine you drink is the sweat & blood of black people like you.

No need to post this nonsense here...lets stick to the thread...don't tell me in Zimbabwe white folks are the ones slaving in Mugabes tobacco farms...FYI Zimbabweans now make up the majority of farm workers in SA.

Zim labourers in SA: PASSOP demands amnesty

Migrant rights group People against Suffering Oppression and Poverty and the Congress of South African Trade Unions have made a joint request for government to grant amnesty to undocumented foreigners, most of them Zimbabweans and Malawians, working as farm workers in South Africa.

http://www.thezimbabwean...urers-in-sa-passop.html

@Cde Mugabe would be no way if it wasn't for the SADC support.
Cde Monomotapa
#58 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 12:28:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Namibia is just in the same boat but we've allowed @deal to make his fortunes in a fairly Indigenised Kenya. Hail Black Empowerment! Lest I forget, the boss of MTN is Zimbo & Kenyans & Zimbos are both in blue & white collar RSA. As economies in KE & Zim continue to expand as RSA takes a bite of the econ.crisis, brain drain reverses & we'll see who's been swimming naked.
the deal
#59 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 12:43:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Namibia is just in the same boat but we've the @deal to make his fortunes in a fairly Indigenised Kenya. Hail Black Empowerment! Lest I forget, the boss of MTN is Zimbo & Kenyans & Zimbos are both in blue & white collar RSA. As economies in KE & Zim continue to expand as RSA takes a bite of the econ.crisis, brain drain reverses & we'll see who's been swimming naked.

Dude I said lets stick to the topic...dont compare apples to oranges...how do you compare low income countries to upper middle income countries...SADC has assisted the people of Zimbabwe during their troubled times...do you know how many Zimbabweans roam the streets of Windhoek? Are you away if it wasnt for Namibia...Zimbabwe would not be part of the Kimberly process? Do you know how many loans the Namibian government has advanced to Mugabes regime? Dont hate on Namibia/RSA we are not responsible for those sanctions...hate on the West...Dude do you know how many transformation and development has taken place in Namibia since the independence? I have lived in Kenya for 4 years now...been to Zimbabwe and RSA...you cant compare the level of development in Kenya to RSA or Namibia...its worlds apart...lets stick to the topic...Both the SA/Namibian economies are growing despite their high bases...their both receiving substantial FDI...the Chinese just invested $2 Billion (KES172 Billion) in a greenfield Namibian mine the other day...Stop hating on success...Black people in SA/Namibia are more richer now than during arpatheid...hundreds of Kenyans work in Namibia while there are only less than 10 Namibians in Kenya...I dont have a problem with that..so are my countrymen...its ONE AFRICA after all....
Cde Monomotapa
#60 Posted : Wednesday, January 02, 2013 1:11:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Great. Now that we've lowered the arms, let's keep RGM out of this coz what has happened is all about majority Zim coz surely 70K local farmers grossing $750M in tobacco sales from 2K settlors can't be all RGM cronies. They are just majority Zim. More access to productive capital & mainstream economics to the black man. Not just jobs & consumer credit.
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