Before I begin, I will appreciate a discussion on this post devoid of political zealotry/bigotry.

My target for the 1st half 2013 is a 35% return on investment.

The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.

My strategy for the 1st quarter 2013 is therefore as follows:
Jan to Mid February - I intend to hold cash. The last quarter of 2012 was a period of cashing out of the market. I anticipate a 20 percent fall in the NSE 20 share index as we approach the elections (3300 -3400). The PEV of 2007 cannot be wished away and foreign investors will play it safe.

Mid Feb - End of quarter 1: This is the period to either raid the NSE for burgains or deposit the cash in a dollar denominated account.

A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.

A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013. This is a 50% capital gain with the right timing and exit strategy. In such a scenario, it will be the exit strategy that will be of most importance lest your money is trapped locally and foreign exchange preservation by the CBK becomes necessary.

I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).

Happy hunting.

Expert cheating death but business/trade exist in mkts not vacuums & if you no longer control that (hail China) then your ccy goes obsolete too. Japan's allies, the West, have caught up to each other & like it or not, they represent the old order. P.S: Japan has been selling more adult diapers than baby of late & is about to need external borrowing away from how they've been getting by via Yen borrowing now 2X a shrinking GDP. If one steps back & looks critically, these 'developed' economies are post-menopause.

The world is awash with liquidity and they will be parking it in emerging markets of which kenya should be a beneficiary.125-135 exchange rate...regardless of who wins it will never get there, i don't think it even breaches 95. Again if you asked a stone to give you a prediction it would probably be closer in numbers.

Propaganda machinery has now been unleashed. Distortion of facts at its best, just to suit someone's political inclination and paymaster.

LONG LIVE UNCLE BOB.