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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land......
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Ali Baba wrote:GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land...... A twist in the tale, maybe Euros are what one should be buying. And while we are it, I hope 'hold cash' refers to a short-term FDR
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2011 Posts: 639
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The discovery of oil in kenya changes alot of theseassumptions.This is because US cannot afford not to benefit from the party.They were late for the party and wont try any stupid move else China wil have a laugh all the way.Sanctions wont work as China wil happily ignore them.As such Zim way is a far dream whichever team wins.However the perception created wil definately offer investors yet another buying opportunity.Am waiting for the dip before elections and plunge into stocks.My only prayer is whoever loses accepts our verdict and we will have peace!!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/29/2007 Posts: 76
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Oil: Will not have major effect on USD/ KES exchange rates before production starts in 2017 or thereabout..
US Fiscal Cliff: I doubt that it will make the USD mimick the Zim one!
A mix of all these things will help reduce the risk, USD, EUR, Stocks, Real Estate but you cannot keep lots of KSHS in the period before and immediately after elections regardless who wins.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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@stocksmaster is slipping (sic) on the job. my guy, you have failed to consider expected strong posting of full year PBT results by some companies read financial sector and resultant good dividend announcements such as the assured ones from KCB and HFCK that will ring fence even the fearful foreigners.
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/12/2012 Posts: 92
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great analysis @stocksmaster.
however I believe the elections will be peaceful and if uhuru wins I expect him to be exonerated as long as he sings to Obama's tunes....si hata kagame is free.
anybody remembers how the market rallied from 4500- 5800 in 2008 after the pact?
yep...some blind optimism may return.
but who knows what the foreigners will do? what if the US markets sell off?
will there be an excuse to dump their stake coz of political instability.
remember how in 2009 our market continued to tank as the US markets were having a rally of a lifetime ...I picked the cue and plunged and reaped handsomely.
the correlation between world markets is astonishing...albeit with some lag...the divergence trades are great ...this are my ramblings...but I'm not sober at the moment.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Ali Baba wrote:GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land...... @Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101.. Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD! So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account!  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Mr. Market hates Uncertainty, that is what the country is facing. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
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Me, i will keep on investing in stocks. I am optimistic that whichever way the country takes in march 2013 i have no control. Democracy=power of many and i do not subscribe to that notion. When i have a choice to make i do not choose people because they are popular but because they can perform. I will focus on blue chips (as investors) exit and on non-listed companies. You never know, the market may hold and accelerate after march. History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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guru267 wrote:Ali Baba wrote:GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land...... @Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101.. Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD! So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! Lower GDP,investments,higher unemployment,entitlements-It could spark a recession which would still further raise the value of dollar. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:@stocksmaster is slipping (sic) on the job. my guy, you have failed to consider expected strong posting of full year PBT results by some companies read financial sector and resultant good dividend announcements such as the assured ones from KCB and HFCK that will ring fence even the fearful foreigners. ...not really we have seen more than once where the market has failed to factor in good results,there is so much uncertainity we can never know...its all about taking that chance. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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stocksmaster wrote:
The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.
A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.
A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013.
I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).
Happy hunting.
I'm struggling to understand your logic.  ..Although i'm expecting election could go either way, a cord win will means effectively locking out two of the most important regions Rift valley and Central from power. That has never happened in the history of the country from the colonial times. Can you imagine what will happen if the people in those two regions realise they have no stake in government with their leaders carted off to the hague they will have a siege mentality and the first thing to do is to starve the government of revenue so expect KRA not to meet its targets and therefore new creative taxes to be pushed through a hostile parliament. The same thing happens if Jubilee wins a whole region will be locked out in a winner takes it all situation. If jubilee wins that spooks foreign investors and gives the country bad press but sanctions are unlikely. In my view the market will continue to trade sideways what will matter is individual stock picks and a long term outlook. Happy hunting
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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guru267 wrote:Ali Baba wrote:GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land...... @Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101.. Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD! So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! @guru you'll continue to have a REAL US economy in the tank & the US Fed busy de-basing the USD via QE Infinite* = Stagflation i.e another 'lost decade' Zim. Zim itself mulls moving from abusing the USD to aid its Renaissance post-09 by embracing the Yuan alongside re-intro the de-commisioned ZWD!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:guru267 wrote:Ali Baba wrote:GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land...... @Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101.. Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD! So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! @guru you'll continue to have a REAL US economy in the tank & the US Fed busy de-basing the USD via QE Infinite* = Stagflation i.e another 'lost decade' Zim. Zim itself mulls moving from abusing the USD to aid its Renaissance post-09 by embracing the Yuan alongside re-intro the de-commisioned ZWD! @Cde just take a look at Japan as a case study! Japan had had two lost decades of recession and stagnation yet the yen has been relatively stable, strong and relevant all through! We cannot analyse developed countries the same way we do the developing third world! Read also the stronger Euro after austerity implementation and yet Europe is also expecting a lost decade! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate? We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks. See you tomorrow at the market place @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate? We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks. See you tomorrow at the market place Hehe. Watu wakipatana debe, sisi tunapatana soko GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/16/2010 Posts: 672 Location: nairobi
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stocksmaster wrote:Before I begin, I will appreciate a discussion on this post devoid of political zealotry/bigotry.
My target for the 1st half 2013 is a 35% return on investment.
The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.
My strategy for the 1st quarter 2013 is therefore as follows:
Jan to Mid February - I intend to hold cash. The last quarter of 2012 was a period of cashing out of the market. I anticipate a 20 percent fall in the NSE 20 share index as we approach the elections (3300 -3400). The PEV of 2007 cannot be wished away and foreign investors will play it safe.
Mid Feb - End of quarter 1: This is the period to either raid the NSE for burgains or deposit the cash in a dollar denominated account.
A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.
A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013. This is a 50% capital gain with the right timing and exit strategy. In such a scenario, it will be the exit strategy that will be of most importance lest your money is trapped locally and foreign exchange preservation by the CBK becomes necessary.
I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).
Happy hunting.
@ Stock master - i salute you sir / Madam! You performed well in our fantasy stocks and so to me you are a guru ..... roho safi. Your opinions above are truely a look of how things will turn in 2013. I will invest in Farming in 2013 to supply food to kenyans before coming back after the elections are over. What is your opinion? What is Peter Kenneth wins - what could be the likely scenerio? I personally feel that only a jubilee win will negatively impact our economy ... Happy 2013 God gave me the power to make wealth ... Blessed the work of my hands & enabled be A SELF MADE BILLIONAIRE ...... TO GOD THE FATHER OF MY LORD JESUS CHRIST; BE THE GLORY NOW & FOREVER MORE!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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guru267 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:guru267 wrote:Ali Baba wrote:GURU267:>>You are buying USD!! I can't believe it.If the US debt crisis is not resolved,you will still end the Zim way.Americans are buying GOLD.And land...... @Ali Baba lets me take you through economics 101.. Fiscal cliff = higher taxes & lower spending = austerity = lower deficit = stronger USD! So if the fiscal cliff does materialize i laugh all the way to my $ account! @guru you'll continue to have a REAL US economy in the tank & the US Fed busy de-basing the USD via QE Infinite* = Stagflation i.e another 'lost decade' Zim. Zim itself mulls moving from abusing the USD to aid its Renaissance post-09 by embracing the Yuan alongside re-intro the de-commisioned ZWD! @Cde just take a look at Japan as a case study! Japan had had two lost decades of recession and stagnation yet the yen has been relatively stable, strong and relevant all through! We cannot analyse developed countries the same way we do the developing third world! Read also the stronger Euro after austerity implementation and yet Europe is also expecting a lost decade! Expert cheating death but business/trade exist in mkts not vacuums & if you no longer control that (hail China) then your ccy goes obsolete too. Japan's allies, the West, have caught up to each other & like it or not, they represent the old order. P.S: Japan has been selling more adult diapers than baby of late & is about to need external borrowing away from how they've been getting by via Yen borrowing now 2X a shrinking GDP. If one steps back & looks critically, these 'developed' economies are post-menopause.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Interesting thread this. Cant wait to see how the NSE opens tomorrow. Will the Fund managers stay out or will they load in? Will the foreigners watch from the sidelines or will they participate? We get the anwers to these and more tomorrow and the next 2 weeks. See you tomorrow at the market place Hehe. Watu wakipatana debe, sisi tunapatana soko Alas..Capital strike! If you hear 75% tax like that French dude, you vote with your capital - Belgium pap! Woi...God protect Kenya Vision 2030!!
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