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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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Before I begin, I will appreciate a discussion on this post devoid of political zealotry/bigotry.
My target for the 1st half 2013 is a 35% return on investment.
The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.
My strategy for the 1st quarter 2013 is therefore as follows:
Jan to Mid February - I intend to hold cash. The last quarter of 2012 was a period of cashing out of the market. I anticipate a 20 percent fall in the NSE 20 share index as we approach the elections (3300 -3400). The PEV of 2007 cannot be wished away and foreign investors will play it safe.
Mid Feb - End of quarter 1: This is the period to either raid the NSE for burgains or deposit the cash in a dollar denominated account.
A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.
A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013. This is a 50% capital gain with the right timing and exit strategy. In such a scenario, it will be the exit strategy that will be of most importance lest your money is trapped locally and foreign exchange preservation by the CBK becomes necessary.
I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).
Happy hunting.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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stocksmaster wrote:Before I begin, I will appreciate a discussion on this post devoid of political zealotry/bigotry.
My target for the 1st half 2013 is a 35% return on investment.
The 1st quarter of 2013 will greatly be influenced by the March 2013 elections. Markets hate uncertainity especially when the choice of the next government may have radically different effects on the economy.
My strategy for the 1st quarter 2013 is therefore as follows:
Jan to Mid February - I intend to hold cash. The last quarter of 2012 was a period of cashing out of the market. I anticipate a 20 percent fall in the NSE 20 share index as we approach the elections (3300 -3400). The PEV of 2007 cannot be wished away and foreign investors will play it safe.
Mid Feb - End of quarter 1: This is the period to either raid the NSE for burgains or deposit the cash in a dollar denominated account.
A peaceful Cord win should take the index to the 4800 - 5000 levels by end of 1st Half 2013. This is at least a 40-50% capital gain btw Feb to End of June with the right timing of entry.
A peaceful Jubilee win will greatly benefit the dollar. A sitting president and his deputy appearing at the ICC should at least take the dollar to 125-135 against the local currency by end of April 2013. This is a 50% capital gain with the right timing and exit strategy. In such a scenario, it will be the exit strategy that will be of most importance lest your money is trapped locally and foreign exchange preservation by the CBK becomes necessary.
I will be updating this thread as the quarter progresses. Also check updates on my twitter (stocksmaster@stocksmaster79).
Happy hunting.
@stockmaster, I agree with you on the scenarios you've painted. For me,i've already started on the 1st blue,i'll be buying dollars if the Hague duo is not barred from running by any court. If the 2nd blue comes to be,the exit might not be feasible anytime in 2013. If any other party wins peacefully other than jubilee, i'll be buying on the first few trading days of the bourse,before switching to usual ways. Happy 2013.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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Beautiful analysis Stocksmaster! I will be following this thread closely, harvest time is here. TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@stocksmaster this is awesome strategy! I cashed out of the NSE in Dec and loaded up on USDs at between 85-86... If Uhuru is allowed to run then jubilee will achieve a first round win! After what happened to the Zimbabwean and Iranian currencies i don't see a better place to protect yourself other than in hard currencies! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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If Jubilee win, and the President and Deputy President attend the trial at the Hague, how would that affect the economy? I thought a Jubilee win would only be disastrous if the two fail to show up at the trial and we face sanctions.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:If Uhuru is allowed to run then jubilee will achieve a first round win! What makes you so sure that UK will win 1st round?
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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2012 wrote:guru267 wrote:If Uhuru is allowed to run then jubilee will achieve a first round win! What makes you so sure that UK will win 1st round? Comrades, for politricks, the @Admin has a whole subsection to discuss that. Politicians, Keep off investors section Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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It'll be interesting to have to deal with another Zim 'lost decade' economic scenario in KE esp. now that that is a closed chapter w.e.f 2012. Appreciate the Zim USD equity hedge now more than ever & if KE does go to the dogs economically coz of POLITICS (WTF?), it's to emerge a real-estate mogul 
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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I cant wait for bargain hunting in late feb...stocks may once again be trading at above 10% dividend yield...where I will buy and hold for about 5 years. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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dunkang wrote:2012 wrote:guru267 wrote:If Uhuru is allowed to run then jubilee will achieve a first round win! What makes you so sure that UK will win 1st round? Comrades, for politricks, the @Admin has a whole subsection to discuss that. Politicians, Keep off investors section Comrade, politics determine investments and I tent to take @guru very seriously on investment matters hence I'd like to understand so I can have a more informed 2013 investment strategy as I'd not factored that in.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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Lolest! wrote:If Jubilee win, and the President and Deputy President attend the trial at the Hague, how would that affect the economy? I thought a Jubilee win would only be disastrous if the two fail to show up at the trial and we face sanctions. In the global economy, good foreign relations are a key pillar for any economic development. The foreign powers that drive the global economy are already painting a gloomy picture of Kenya (google - '10 conflicts to watch in 2013' and see Kenya lumped up with DRC, Sudan, Afghanistan etc) Happy hunting.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/26/2009 Posts: 1,793
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stocksmaster wrote:Lolest! wrote:If Jubilee win, and the President and Deputy President attend the trial at the Hague, how would that affect the economy? I thought a Jubilee win would only be disastrous if the two fail to show up at the trial and we face sanctions. In the global economy, good foreign relations are a key pillar for any economic development. The foreign powers that drive the global economy are already painting a gloomy picture of Kenya (google - '10 conflicts to watch in 2013' and see Kenya lumped up with DRC, Sudan, Afghanistan etc) Happy hunting. THE LIST PRINT | TEXT SIZE Share on email | EMAIL | SINGLE PAGE 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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dunkang wrote:2012 wrote:guru267 wrote:If Uhuru is allowed to run then jubilee will achieve a first round win! What makes you so sure that UK will win 1st round? Comrades, for politricks, the @Admin has a whole subsection to discuss that. Politicians, Keep off investors section In this case politics has alot in stake for the investment strategy. Lets look at all the scenarios rather than bury our heads in the sand and regret later on. IMO if UDF and EAGLE are not incorporated into the the two main groups we will have a runoff which will be won by CORD. There will be lots of uncertainty during the one month runoff period. Better keep some cash and take advantage of the discounts at that time. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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In as much as politicks! affects stocks in a BIG way, I don't think it's fair to discuss too much of it on this thread. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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the deal wrote:The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig? Watch the news boss...look at Mathare, Tana River, strange paraphernalia in Kajiado, yet the nominations have not started and the elections are 3 months away. These are indications that things will not go as we wish. No rigging will be done, but the losers might might just refuse to bite the bullet. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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What's your outlook on 2013 global economy and possible effects to Kenya? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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jerry wrote:In as much as politicks! affects stocks in a BIG way, I don't think it's fair to discuss too much of it on this thread. Agreed. Politics is however an issue that must be discussed because it is the biggest risk to every investor's portfolio in 2013. As long as the discussions are mature, unemotional, relevant to investments and unbiased, i dont see why we shouldn't discuss. The scenarios are: - Either the elections will be peacefull or not. - Either there will be a winner in the first round or there will be a runoff. - The elections will be won by Cord, Jubilee, eagle, pambazuko, UDF or Narc Kenya. - If jubilee wins, either Kenya will face political and economic ostracisation or sanctions by the international community or not. - If CORD wins, either there will be peaceful handover of power or not. - Either there will be peace or not after elections. - Either the economy and capital markets will respond to the political risk or not. Ladies and gentlemen are the above issues not worth of discussion on an investment thread? Personally i would like to know the best way of buying foreign currency. Should i buy real hard currency or derivatives.
Barclays was introducing currency derivatives at some point in 2010. Was it successful?
Who else sells currency derivatives in Kenya?Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/9/2008 Posts: 5,389
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@stocksmaster What's your prediction regarding interest/mortgage rates in the two scenarios ie cord vs jubilee win.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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Sparky has laid out(in IT language) the IF...scenarios
what we need now are the THEN... ELSE statements for the anticipated scenarios....
@Stocksmaster has given beautiful THEN...ELSE solutions
Hold cash..
IF CORD is set to win THEN buy stocks or ELSE....
IF Jubilee is set to win THEN stock Dollars or ELSE
all i need is Sparky's scenarios explained.. then we throw in the factors at play and voila... either way we make money...
PLEASE LETS KEEP Emotional partisan POLITICAL DISCUSSIONS OUT OF THIS
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