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Stocksmaster.............1st Quarter Strategy
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stocksmaster
#11 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 11:04:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Lolest! wrote:
If Jubilee win, and the President and Deputy President attend the trial at the Hague, how would that affect the economy? I thought a Jubilee win would only be disastrous if the two fail to show up at the trial and we face sanctions.


In the global economy, good foreign relations are a key pillar for any economic development. The foreign powers that drive the global economy are already painting a gloomy picture of Kenya (google - '10 conflicts to watch in 2013' and see Kenya lumped up with DRC, Sudan, Afghanistan etc)

Happy hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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kenmac
#12 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 11:50:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
stocksmaster wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
If Jubilee win, and the President and Deputy President attend the trial at the Hague, how would that affect the economy? I thought a Jubilee win would only be disastrous if the two fail to show up at the trial and we face sanctions.


In the global economy, good foreign relations are a key pillar for any economic development. The foreign powers that drive the global economy are already painting a gloomy picture of Kenya (google - '10 conflicts to watch in 2013' and see Kenya lumped up with DRC, Sudan, Afghanistan etc)

Happy hunting.


THE LIST PRINT | TEXT SIZE Share on email | EMAIL | SINGLE PAGE 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013
......Ecclesiastes
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the deal
#13 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 12:32:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig?
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sparkly
#14 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 1:39:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
dunkang wrote:
2012 wrote:
guru267 wrote:
If Uhuru is allowed to run then jubilee will achieve a first round win!


What makes you so sure that UK will win 1st round?


Comrades, for politricks, the @Admin has a whole subsection to discuss that.

Politicians, Keep off investors section


In this case politics has alot in stake for the investment strategy. Lets look at all the scenarios rather than bury our heads in the sand and regret later on.

IMO if UDF and EAGLE are not incorporated into the the two main groups we will have a runoff which will be won by CORD.

There will be lots of uncertainty during the one month runoff period.

Better keep some cash and take advantage of the discounts at that time.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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jerry
#15 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 2:05:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
In as much as politicks! affects stocks in a BIG way, I don't think it's fair to discuss too much of it on this thread.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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murchr
#16 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 3:44:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
the deal wrote:
The demographics suggest a tight race with a strong possibility of a run off, elections will be peaceful since some people are at the hague already...also a new president is coming in...who will rig?



Watch the news boss...look at Mathare, Tana River, strange paraphernalia in Kajiado, yet the nominations have not started and the elections are 3 months away. These are indications that things will not go as we wish. No rigging will be done, but the losers might might just refuse to bite the bullet.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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ChessMaster
#17 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 4:18:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
What's your outlook on 2013 global economy and possible effects to Kenya?
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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sparkly
#18 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 5:25:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
jerry wrote:
In as much as politicks! affects stocks in a BIG way, I don't think it's fair to discuss too much of it on this thread.


Agreed. Politics is however an issue that must be discussed because it is the biggest risk to every investor's portfolio in 2013. As long as the discussions are mature, unemotional, relevant to investments and unbiased, i dont see why we shouldn't discuss.

The scenarios are:

- Either the elections will be peacefull or not.
- Either there will be a winner in the first round or there will be a runoff.
- The elections will be won by Cord, Jubilee, eagle, pambazuko, UDF or Narc Kenya.
- If jubilee wins, either Kenya will face political and economic ostracisation or sanctions by the international community or not.
- If CORD wins, either there will be peaceful handover of power or not.
- Either there will be peace or not after elections.
- Either the economy and capital markets will respond to the political risk or not.

Ladies and gentlemen are the above issues not worth of discussion on an investment thread?

Personally i would like to know the best way of buying foreign currency. Should i buy real hard currency or derivatives.

Barclays was introducing currency derivatives at some point in 2010. Was it successful?

Who else sells currency derivatives in Kenya?
Life is short. Live passionately.
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, December 31, 2012 5:30 PM | Reason: Not specified
jaggernaut
#19 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 6:24:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/9/2008
Posts: 5,389
@stocksmaster What's your prediction regarding interest/mortgage rates in the two scenarios ie cord vs jubilee win.
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poundfoolish
#20 Posted : Monday, December 31, 2012 6:53:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
Sparky has laid out(in IT language) the IF...scenarios
what we need now are the THEN... ELSE statements for the anticipated scenarios....
@Stocksmaster has given beautiful THEN...ELSE solutions
Hold cash..
IF CORD is set to win THEN buy stocks or ELSE....
IF Jubilee is set to win THEN stock Dollars or ELSE
all i need is Sparky's scenarios explained.. then we throw in the factors at play and voila... either way we make money...
PLEASE LETS KEEP Emotional partisan POLITICAL DISCUSSIONS OUT OF THIS
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, December 31, 2012 6:55 PM | Reason: Not specified
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