Which stocks do you think will perform during 2013. i have the following in my list Kengen,hfck,cables,insurance companies due to better performance in the stock markets,kcb,kplc,ARM.what is your take on this list

For me i will categorize this in to 2;

A. In terms of financial results

-- E.A Cables (The prices of raw copper and aluminium has gone down very well in the last 24 months, you can check on LME charts. Forex, electricity and Petrol prices have stabilized in the last 12 months but not recovered the 24 months prices.)

-- Britak (just insticts)

-- Kengen (this fellows are a monopoly, and more power is rolled out annually)

B) In terms of share price rising;

-- Kengen (May touch 12-15/- due to financial results)

-- Eveready (kindly do not touch this nugu, even if it touches 5/-, until they truly diversify not selling factory land and scrap metals)

-- KPLC (have they gazzeted the power bills rates increament that they had proposed in April 2012? If they do, my bill will swell by at least 25p.c, sad).

DISCLOSURE:
My portfolio has Safcom (48p.c), cables (40p.c), Britak (6p.c), Total (1.5p.c), Mumias (4.5p.c).

Happy holidays to all!

My advice to wazuans for 2013 is to keep off the banks especially in the 2nd half... My reasoning is that as interest rates come down the lower interest spreads will result in negative profit growth!

I would advise a shift towards industrials, energy and construction as these will benefit from infrastructure boom, economic growth & lower financing costs!

My picks are:
1. Kenya re (only because it is currently selling at a throwaway price)
2. Kengen
3. Bamburi
4. Unga

Spare the whole market by voting leaders who will interact freely with the world.

Tourism slow down guaranteed , dollar rise most likely and as a result up with energy costs , transport costs, production costs and living costs. Kenyan products will get more expensive and erode any chance of our exports feeling cheaper to international buyers. Inelastic products are very very few , with stripped disposable incomes , the flow of cash in the economy has to reduce, supermarkets sell less multiplier slows further and economy teeters/ flirts with recession. Banks do well with initial high overdrafts and credit cards being used , M-Shwari turnover increases but so does risk. Defaults on loans, property, hire purchase increase. Banks have been asked to drop interest rates to prevent a meltdown . The problem is thats treating an after effect but leaving the core problem i.e. energy costs...some have advised to buy into property stocks and their supply line, what happens if construction slows further. Have you seen the report of the slow down from 3.6% to 0.3---0.6 % year on year ...is the market saturated?
Stocks that will do well are

Energy
Banks have another 6 months in them
Oil
Staples I.e. Unga
Eabl --- unhappy ppl drink more and happy ppl will always enjoy a braiding one

Lay off sugar...when does the comesa treaty allow free flow of sugar and can mummies compete?
Airlines
Tourism

Banks profitability started the slid in Q3 2012 qoq. Expect the effects of the high interest rates to lag into the next 1yr. For now its best to take some profits in the bank stocks. The very conservative lenders like SCB, DTB and BBK will be an exception to the rule.

For my 2013 portfolio,my focus is on the following:
-HFCK:- assuming they are making good use of the money they have raised via debts and a bond,a fall in lending rates will see a rise in mortgage lending.It has a high dividend yield at prevailing prices and has oscillated at ksh15-ksh 16 for too long.It may break out.
-Rea Vipingo:-With an eps >7 last year,this year i project one greater than ksh 8,it also trades at a nice dividend yield price.
-Mumias:- the stock is trading at a fraction of its price to book.It has a high dividend yield too. With some factories which compete for cane having closed down periodically,mumias has the advantage.Safeguards due to expire in 2014 and a possible rights issue.It is a buy in 2013 but sell every share before these events.
-Williamson Tea:- Fundamentals remain intact.Despite a profit warning,the company is still awash with cash and can give dividends normally.With the shilling losing against the dollar,agrics may make a windfall.