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I&M Bank to List at NSE via City Trust.
mwekez@ji
#21 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 11:27:54 AM
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@VVS, et al. Who are the current directors of City Trust? And why is mr. market valuing City Trust this expensively? Wouldn’t mind the latest annual report
sparkly
#22 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 12:26:55 PM
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mwekez@ji wrote:
I&M Bank offered shares to ESOP in year 2011 at KES 935 per share. (EPS KES 117.72, NBV KES 507.48, P/E 7.94X, P/B 1.84X). City Trust aint getting the shares any cheaper than that.

City Trust shares are going for KES 390 (EPS KES 8.45, NBV KES 62.86, P/E 46.15X, P/B 6.20X). I doubt whether I&M will getting City Trust shares at such an expensive level.


I am guesing a simple swap.

City Trust will create new shares which will be offered to the current shareholders of I&M prorata their shareholding in I&M.

The current shareholders of I&M will surrender all their shares to City Trust.

The new shares will then be listed on the nse.

If that will be the case, the current shareholders of City Trust need to watch out. Its unlikely that the stock of CT will be allocated the lofty valuation implied by the nse.
Life is short. Live passionately.
the deal
#23 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 4:06:20 PM
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The City Trust shares will be split before the swap then City shareholders get to keep their equivalent of their current stake in I&M Bank in the new holdings company. I&M Bank is a fast growing regional bank...I think City is cheap at the current price.

Disclaimer: My two cents.
VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 5:53:00 PM
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mwekez@ji wrote:
@VVS, et al. Who are the current directors of City Trust? And why is mr. market valuing City Trust this expensively? Wouldn’t mind the latest annual report

Chairman: Anil Raja
M. Soundarajan, D. Ndonye, P. Raja
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 5:57:04 PM
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the deal wrote:
The City Trust shares will be split before the swap then City shareholders get to keep their equivalent of their current stake in I&M Bank in the new holdings company. I&M Bank is a fast growing regional bank...I think City is cheap at the current price.

Disclaimer: My two cents.
The notice said the Documents will be released on 21st Jan 2013. There might be an element of 'splitting' included prior to the 'acquisition'. I would hazard a guess between 4 to 10 so an implied price of 100 (close to its peer DTB) to 40 (close to its peer NIC). BTW, employees were allocated shares in IM& Bank [always good to have employees as shareholders] and DEG/Proparco are among the larger shareholders.

Since the dominant party will be I&M Bank (I&M Bank Kenya, I&M Bank Tanzania), I assume the name of City Trust will eventually be changed to I&M Holdings or something of the sort. See EA Oxygen to BOC, Brooke Bond to Unilever, etc.

If you go to I&M Bank's website, there are other 'group' companies which may become part of the Holding Company in the future e.g. GA Insurance.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#26 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 8:50:46 AM
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the deal wrote:
...I think City is cheap at the current price.


Substantiate putting in mind that City should henceforth be valued like a Bank #the deal contrarian thought

.
sparkly
#27 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 8:58:55 AM
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mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
...I think City is cheap at the current price.


Substantiate putting in mind that City should henceforth be valued like a Bank #the deal contrarian thought

.


Ditto, the stock will be put on the weighing machine that is the nse after the re-organisation.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 9:38:12 AM
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sparkly wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
...I think City is cheap at the current price.

Substantiate putting in mind that City should henceforth be valued like a Bank #the deal contrarian thought .

Ditto, the stock will be put on the weighing machine that is the nse after the re-organisation.

Probably after the elections. The documents will be sent on 21st Jan, then 3-4 weeks for City Trust's EGM, the (final) approval from CMA/CBK can take 2 weeks, then I&M shareholders have to 'approve' it at an EGM/AGM. Finally, the actual 'exchange' takes place before the 'listing' of the new shares.
By that time, the final 2012 results will be out, elections may be over & (hopefully) folks come back into the market.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#29 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 10:40:03 AM
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mwekez@ji wrote:
@VVS, et al. Who are the current directors of City Trust? And why is mr. market valuing City Trust this expensively? Wouldn’t mind the latest annual report


financials oct 2012
Life is short. Live passionately.
mwekez@ji
#30 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 12:30:45 PM
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sparkly wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@VVS, et al. Who are the current directors of City Trust? And why is mr. market valuing City Trust this expensively? Wouldn’t mind the latest annual report


financials oct 2012


Financial_statement Noted. Annual_report (latest - for the FY Ending July 2012) still needed. Like this one >>> City Trust Annual Report for the FY Ending July 2006
.
VituVingiSana
#31 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 2:50:42 PM
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http://www.businessdaily...1/-/ewqhoo/-/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
FUNKY
#32 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 3:22:19 PM
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Is it worth buying City Trust at 400/-?
VituVingiSana
#33 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 8:05:24 PM
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FUNKY wrote:
Is it worth buying City Trust at 400/-?
Like any other firm, you have to look at the details.

I expect a hefty split thanks to the 'high' price of City Trust. And splits seem to generate excitement.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#34 Posted : Friday, December 28, 2012 8:10:04 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
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Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@VVS, et al. Who are the current directors of City Trust? And why is mr. market valuing City Trust this expensively? Wouldn’t mind the latest annual report


financials oct 2012


Financial_statement Noted. Annual_report (latest - for the FY Ending July 2012) still needed. Like this one >>> City Trust Annual Report for the FY Ending July 2006
.


Funky wrote:

Is it worth buying City Trust at 400/-?


Just crunched the numbers:

- City Trust owns 7.3% of I&M. They have a subsidiary per the July 2012 financials (I have just seen the summary statements without the notes). Lets assume that the subsidiary does not contribute materially to the earnings of City Trust and therefore I&M is the main investment.

- I&M is a portfolio investment for City Trust hence they recognize dividend received as their income.

- For year ended 31 Dec 2012, I&M's EPS was KShs 117.76 and DPS was KShs 26, a 22% payout.

- If we assume that current shareholders of City Trust will be end up owning 7.3% of the holding company, we can recognize the earnings on earnings basis rather than dividend received basis.

- The trailing PER for City Trust on dividend received basis is 46.15, but on earnings basis it becomes 9.93.

- EPS in 2011 grew by 38% over 2010. If we assume similar growth in 2012 then the forward PER is 7.72.

- In conclusion, City Trust is NOT EXPENSIVE at current price of 390-400. It's peer NIC is however trading at lower PER.
Life is short. Live passionately.
mwekez@ji
#35 Posted : Saturday, December 29, 2012 11:23:50 AM
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@sparkly, touché. .... are lockup of the anchor shareholders expected in this listing arrangement?
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Saturday, December 29, 2012 11:51:37 AM
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Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@VVS, et al. Who are the current directors of City Trust? And why is mr. market valuing City Trust this expensively? Wouldn’t mind the latest annual report


financials oct 2012


Financial_statement Noted. Annual_report (latest - for the FY Ending July 2012) still needed. Like this one >>> City Trust Annual Report for the FY Ending July 2006
.


Funky wrote:

Is it worth buying City Trust at 400/-?


Just crunched the numbers:

- City Trust owns 7.3% of I&M. They have a subsidiary per the July 2012 financials (I have just seen the summary statements without the notes). Lets assume that the subsidiary does not contribute materially to the earnings of City Trust and therefore I&M is the main investment.

- I&M is a portfolio investment for City Trust hence they recognize dividend received as their income.

- For year ended 31 Dec 2012, I&M's EPS was KShs 117.76 and DPS was KShs 26, a 22% payout.

- If we assume that current shareholders of City Trust will be end up owning 7.3% of the holding company, we can recognize the earnings on earnings basis rather than dividend received basis.

- The trailing PER for City Trust on dividend received basis is 46.15, but on earnings basis it becomes 9.93.

- EPS in 2011 grew by 38% over 2010. If we assume similar growth in 2012 then the forward PER is 7.72.

- In conclusion, City Trust is NOT EXPENSIVE at current price of 390-400. It's peer NIC is however trading at lower PER.
It's hard to figure out the FY 2012 EPS due to end-of-month adjustments, (re)valuation of bonds, NPLs, etc but as @sparkly says, I&M (City Trust) seems inexpensive but there are other options. Future growth (potential) is key!

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#37 Posted : Saturday, December 29, 2012 12:17:35 PM
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To add to @Sparkly, some of my thoughts:

I like NIC but I also worry about the bank's future growth in a crowded field. It has new operations in Uganda & bought a smallish bank in Tanzania. Except for the ndegwa businesses, does it have sufficient 'large' clients who do cross-border business?

I&M is not in Uganda. Actis sold BCR (Rwanda) to I&M. I understand Actis had 60% of DFCU (listed in Uganda) on the block too. Was it too much for I&M to swallow in one bite? Perhaps after digesting BCR, I&M can bid for DFCU using 'listed' shares as currency. If they are smart about it, go for a cross-listing on the USE & RSE to generate buzz & goodwill.

Tanzania: The growth has been rapid per the Annual Report. http://www.imbank.com/tz/about-us/annual-reports/
Unlike Kenya, Tanzania is underbanked but also a tougher place to do business coz the socialists don't quite get 'loans' need to be repaid. Michael Shirima owns 5% of I&M Bank TZ and he is also the largest shareholder in Precision Air.

Rwanda: I&M bought BCR in 3Q 2012 (per the press releases) so it may take a few months to integrate it fully into the group. Rwandan firms do a lot of business with Kenyans & Tanzanians. I expect increased synergy with Tanzania rather than Kenya. An importer can use Tanga/Dar to import goods then move them to Rwanda. DRC is huge business for Kenyans & Rwandans. 20% owned by Government of Rwanda. I expect a listing of BCR or a cross-listing of I&M/City on the RSE.
http://www.bcr.co.rw/index.php/financial-reports

Mauritius: http://bankone.mu/en/financial_statements.aspx
Rapid growth of the bank in a small economy but Mauritius acts like a financial center bridging India & China to (South, Central & East) Africa. The 'safety' & good governance in Mauritius has encouraged businesses to incorporate there including some subsidiaries/associates of Transcentury & Britam. 50% owned by CIEL of Mauritius.

Kenya: It remains 'king' for I&M but it increasingly contributes a smaller percentage of the profits though 90%+ of absolute profits. Reading the papers, ads & press releases, they are ramping up in Western & Rift Valley. Is it coz of increased demand from clients or expansion into the economically significant counties? [New branches in Kisii, Eldoret & Nakuru]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#38 Posted : Saturday, December 29, 2012 12:18:16 PM
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I&M is a nice fattened bull ... especially year 2010 (95% PAT Growth) ... graphs available here (page 17) >>> http://176.58.105.22/wp-content...ort%20layout%20final.pdf ... 2011 PAT growth slowed to 38% .... 2012 and onwards ....
mwekez@ji
#39 Posted : Thursday, January 03, 2013 5:34:42 PM
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Rich Today: City Trust firmed 2.56% to close at 400.00 which is a Fresh All Time Closing High. City Trust is the subject of a Reverse Takeover where I&M Bank will essentially list at the Securities Exchange via City Trust. City Trust trades on a PE Ratio of 47.2189 and the Equations around the Reversal of I&M into City Trust will require careful scrutiny because the inherent Bias might be for an expensive Valuation.
VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Sunday, January 13, 2013 10:44:00 AM
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The Information Memorandum is out on 21 Jan but when will the 2012 results be released? I&M bought BCR in 3Q 2012 so that will boost the assets & probably the profits too.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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