Afroblk wrote:Afroblk wrote:I always consider myself a long term buyer but i think some long term hurts. I just wanted to highlight some stocks that have really frustrated me, i even forgot about them. I can never sell at a loss, and will hold them for as long as i can.
Bamburi bought @ 170 sometime in march 2010
Housing Finance bought @ 18 march 2010
EAPC @ 85
Kengen @ 15
BOC @ 160
While some stocks frustrated me, some gave me hope and not quit.
BAT @190 now 450
Equity @15 now 23
Carbacid @ 100 now 122
Scangroup @ 45 now 58
NSE has been performing very poorly but i still have hopes with the market. not too sure if it will be affected by the elections next year. For those back at home, what is the situation like? do you think there will be violence after the elections? i don't want to lose the gains that i've made in some counters. please advise. Thanks.
It's been over two months since I expressed my feeling about the NSE and i'm happy to say I've finally managed to offload all the counters that i've made some gains over a period of time. I had a hard time offloading some counters like BOC :( very frustrating but i eventually got a buyer. Nway, below is a summary of my standing since i posted this entry.
Bamburi bought @ 170 sold @189 = 11% gain
Housing Finance bought @ 18 still holding (prospects of the housing market and access to mortgage in middle class Kenyans) with today's price of 15.50 that edges me to a 14% loss
EAPC bought @ 85 (I'm still holding this counter despite the huge loss, I'm not sure why i still have it but im not willing to loose more than half of the value by selling it. planning on holding for about 5 years and acquiring more next year. The company is changing the way they do business and a different source of energy which consumed much of their production costs. Increase infrastructure and GDP growth should push this counter hoping the management will also get their shit together) with today's price of 39.00 i've realized a 54% loss
Kengen bought @ 15 (still holding and planning on acquiring more of these, this is a looooong term counter for me, one that i might leave to my children. So much potential in the Kenyan energy sector especially with nuclear in the horizon. I know they owe a huge debt to Japan and others but it's another thing to acquire a huge stake while its affordable). with the current price of 8.95 i've realized a 40% loss
BOC @ 160 sold @ 109 (This is one counter i shouldn't have touched, should have just stayed with CAB only) realized a 32% loss
While some stocks frustrated me, some gave me hope and not quit. I offloaded all the counters below and reserve my cash for a prospective counter that I've been eyeing for a while. hoping the counter will dip a little bit more approaching the elections.
BAT bought @190 sold @ 487 = 156% gain
Equity bought @15 sold @ 23.20 = 55% gain
Carbacid bought @ 100 sold @ 118 = 18% gain
Scangroup bought @ 45 sold @ 66 = 47% gain
Here's a summary of my losses and gains
Losses
14 + 54 + 40 + 32 = Average loss is 35%
Gains
11 + 156 + 55 + 18 + 47 = Average gain is 57%
Net gain = 22%
Overall i made some poor choices and wise ones and i emerged the winner. I know i will deep dive further from the counters that i'm still holding i.e. HFCK, EAPC and KenGen which are very long term counters. For now i'm holding on to the ash reserves waiting to make a bold entry right before elections when most folks will be offloading. Key thing is try and buy at a bargain but you never know how much a counter can depreciate. Mystery of the stock market.
@Afro you have done well, in the current market. A few observations (just my opinion, sharing from my experience with the nse. Note that am not a stocks professional).
- Your picks are very solid, eg BAT, Equity, Kengen, Bamburi, Scannad.
- Your frustration might stem from being a "long term buyer" (as you said you are) rather than a longterm investor. A longterm investor considers the dividend received, you havent factored dividends in your calculations.
- Price moves adversely even for good stocks but bad stocks may never recover. No need to keep on holding monkeys like Eapc.
- Are you trully diversified? Case in point, buying Carbacid + BOC, Bamburi + Eapc. Also a bit heavy on industrials. Your portifolio is likely to respond well to the same factors and do well in a boom period.
- On the specific stocks, i would act as follows, if it were me:
Bamburi- healthy dividend yield. Dominant player, expanding in EA and well placed to weather the competition in Cement industry. I would hold and buy at any price under 150.
Eapc-This is a monkey in a competitive industry. Poor management, politics, poor strategy, fraud by employees (link:DN). I would sell and save myself from ulcers.
BOC-Deteroriating fundamentals, no growth. I would sell, wait to buy if they introduce new products.
Carbacid-solid company, high demand for its products but declining margins, however offset by higher volumes. I would only buy if Dividend yield approaches 10% , DY being my security.
Scangroup- promising company with meagre Div. Either buy and wait for maturity or buy low (below 50) and sell high (towards 70). Might do well in this campaign period and definitely if the economic recovers.
Kengen-healthy div, ambitious expansion and a monopoly. I would average down.
BAT- A proven performer but fully priced. Sell
Equity-case study in how to grow a bank from the base. Hold.
Housing Finance- a little gem waiting to shine, undervalued. Buy.
Life is short. Live passionately.