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Estimated 71 Billion Barrels...
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Did u watch this? I dint know NOCK had a block NO. 14T interesting.....being that they know the geological structure of the country why do u think they picked it? http://www.youtube.com/w...p;v=3ybdhjWAmAw&NR=1"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/17/2011 Posts: 627 Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
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[quote=murchr]Did u watch this? I dint know NOCK had a block NO. 14T interesting.....being that they know the geological structure of the country why do u think they picked it? http://www.youtube.com/w...;v=3ybdhjWAmAw&NR=1[/quote] in terms of existing infrastructure compared to other blocks it fairs much better, making exploration costs low, but then again oil is in magadi,gilgil and kinale, they will re-mobilize GDC's geothermal rigs to do the exploration, i wonder how much it can be to sub-lease small portions of the block
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Museveni strikes deal on oil and arms with Russia - http://www.theeastafrica...8/-/x61isx/-/index.html
Quote:The CEO of the Africa Institute of Energy Governance, Mr Dickens Kamugisha, said there was a possibility Mr Museveni was looking to Russia to avoid the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) scrutiny. The EITI requires companies in the extractive sector and those endowed to publish what they pay and receive, respectively. Russia is neither compliant nor candidate of EITI, implying it has no obligation to disclose transactions in its oil and gas industry.
Mr Kamugisha said Russia’s oil sector was soiled by corruption allegations, making it inappropriate to learn from them: “I feel President Museveni wants to open so many windows so that he does not deal with countries asking him for transparency. The problem is that [Museveni] is treating the oil as if it was his personal property”.
Uganda has confirmed oil reserves of 3 billion barrels, but production has delayed over disagreements. Won't be shocked to see KE and Ethiopia go live in oil production ahead of UG!? Watch closely the UGX and its econ. A hammering is coming! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I saved this for the end of the year recap on how states can benefit from oil revenues by putting up sober economical policies. Zim can learn a lot here and get back on track and get off the dollar once the economy fully recovers. Ecuador (a banana republic 6yrs ago) an exemplary for managing oil revenues and revamping the economy from scratch - http://www.guardian.co.u...-radical-exciting-place
Quote:Consider just some economic changes brought about in the past four years, beginning with the renegotiation of oil contracts with multinational companies. Ecuador is an oil exporter, but had benefited relatively little from this because of the high shares of oil sales that went to foreign oil companies. A new law in July 2010 dramatically changed the terms, increasing the government's share from 13% to 87% of gross oil revenues.
Seven of the 16 foreign oil companies decided to pull out, and their fields were taken over by state-run companies. But the others stayed on and, as a result, state revenues increased by $870m (£563m) in 2011.
Second, and possibly even more impressively, the government managed a dramatic increase in direct tax receipts. In fact, this has been even more important in revenue terms than oil receipts. Direct taxes (mainly corporation taxes) increased from around 35% of total taxes in 2006 to more than 40% in 2011. This was largely because of better enforcement, since the nexus between big business and the public tax administration was broken.
Third, these increased government revenues were put to good use in infrastructure investment and social spending. Ecuador now has the highest proportion of public investment to GDP (10%) in Latin America and the Caribbean. In addition, social spending has doubled since 2006. This has enabled real progress towards the constitutional goals of free education at all levels, and access to free healthcare for all citizens. Significant increases in public housing have followed the constitution's affirmation of the right of all citizens to dignified housing with proper amenities. I also think that KE and EA should consider Jimnah's proposal of a Bank for Industries to fund massive infrastructure projects in Energy, Infrastructure, manufacturing (vehicles etc) and foreign trade (import and export esp for oil/gas). Something similar to the Exim Bank of China. This will further boost industrialization, which will effectively deal with BoP problems that EA economies face thus giving GDP a healthy support base. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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Isnt that a bit too drastic? From 13 to 87%, its great for the citizens, but as an investor would you be comfortable knowing your expenses have dramatically gone up like that? That means shareholders are left with only 13%- total expenses. I hope GoK will be more rational, otherwise why would you still stay vested in a company that has to hand over 87%? I guess AOIFF is headed for $5, if GoK intervens with such demands, wouldnt the stock go under $3? I think they were demanding 25% right?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Nabwire wrote:Isnt that a bit too drastic? From 13 to 87%, its great for the citizens, but as an investor would you be comfortable knowing your expenses have dramatically gone up like that? That means shareholders are left with only 13%- total expenses. I hope GoK will be more rational, otherwise why would you still stay vested in a company that has to hand over 87%? I guess AOIFF is headed for $5, if GoK intervens with such demands, wouldnt the stock go under $3? I think they were demanding 25% right? You have to go back to the 70s - 80s to realize what Latin America was subjected to by oil multinationals with the blessings of World Bank. Then you'll understand the argument.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Nabwire wrote:Isnt that a bit too drastic? From 13 to 87%, its great for the citizens, but as an investor would you be comfortable knowing your expenses have dramatically gone up like that? That means shareholders are left with only 13%- total expenses. I hope GoK will be more rational, otherwise why would you still stay vested in a company that has to hand over 87%? I guess AOIFF is headed for $5, if GoK intervens with such demands, wouldnt the stock go under $3? I think they were demanding 25% right? The 9 companies wouldn't have stayed if they weren't making money. The Ecuadorean Govt.'s responsibility lies with it's people. And on that front, they have done a brilliant job. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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OK I understand that the governments responsibility is to its people, but at the same time as an investor, you invest with intentions of making money, would you guys really put in your money knowing that 87% doesnt belong to the company?? Plus 40% tax rate? Doesnt make sense, I was having this conversation with someone who said that for this exact reason, he cannot invest in oil stocks in developing countries. He basically told me I'll lose money if I invest in AOIFF, and the minute GoK starts making such demands I'll know he was right. No one wants to put their money where over three quarters is taken off from the start, you havent even paid employees or set aside funds for prospecting. Now im really worried with this AOIFF stock.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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The Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays for 2012Quote:2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.
We’re looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year:
Turkana County, Kenya
We have to start with Kenya, the biggest success story of the year.
In March, the UK’s Tullow Oil and Canada’s Africa Oil Corp. discovered 100 meters of oil in the Ngamia-1 well. The euphoria was in part because this discovery was made on the very first try in the very first well. Stocks shot up to record highs as a result.
The euphoria has not abated. In late November, the same duo made another find of 30 meters of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well.
September also saw Kenya strike 53 meters of natural gas in its first-ever offshore find in the Mbawa-1 well, off the coast of Malindi. US-based Apache Corp. owns 50% the well in a consortium with a handful of other companies. They’re still digging, hoping that going deeper will reveal the oil.
The bigger picture, however, is that only the surface has been scratched in terms of exploration. The East Africa Rift is believed to hold over 70 billion barrels of untapped crude oil, while offshore Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique have a joint estimated 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There may be offshore oil, too. The oil discoveries in Kenya so far have been confined to one massive basin, and there are six more.
In addition to the size of the prize here, Kenya is favorable for other reasons as well: It offers relative political stability in the midst of a rather restless Africa; it offers attractive fiscal terms; it offers easy access to export markets; and it has an appetite for infrastructure that is hard to beat.
While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable, as for 2012, Kenya remains THE number one East African play in terms of potential. Next year will give us a better idea of commercial viability. http://oilprice.com/Ener...-Gas-Plays-for-2012.html"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Nabwire wrote:OK I understand that the governments responsibility is to its people, but at the same time as an investor, you invest with intentions of making money, would you guys really put in your money knowing that 87% doesnt belong to the company?? Plus 40% tax rate? Doesnt make sense, I was having this conversation with someone who said that for this exact reason, he cannot invest in oil stocks in developing countries. He basically told me I'll lose money if I invest in AOIFF, and the minute GoK starts making such demands I'll know he was right. No one wants to put their money where over three quarters is taken off from the start, you havent even paid employees or set aside funds for prospecting. Now im really worried with this AOIFF stock. When did Ecuador start commercial production? This will make you see why some left in a huff when those rules came into effect in 2010. Read the history of Jaime Roldos. 80s - 90s Latin America had many presidents assassinated or toppled mostly due to oil interests. The other tool used was economical sabotage.
EA needs to be alert to such nasty deals. There's enough to go around for both investors & the nations. The deals must be balanced. The world is wide awake now with the knowledge age in full swing. It is not the 70s anymore where one could muscle their way anyhow they wanted. The Developing nations have got wiser and the global economy needs them now more than ever!
The EA deals being struck now are necessary for creating stable hydrocarbon and mineral investment environment long before the dirt is converted to revenue. Economically SSA is poised for take off if all goes to plan. Large corps are looking or are starting to setup offices there. If they're this excited why worry? Just follow the money
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:The Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays for 2012Quote:2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.
We’re looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year:
Turkana County, Kenya
We have to start with Kenya, the biggest success story of the year.
In March, the UK’s Tullow Oil and Canada’s Africa Oil Corp. discovered 100 meters of oil in the Ngamia-1 well. The euphoria was in part because this discovery was made on the very first try in the very first well. Stocks shot up to record highs as a result.
The euphoria has not abated. In late November, the same duo made another find of 30 meters of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well.
September also saw Kenya strike 53 meters of natural gas in its first-ever offshore find in the Mbawa-1 well, off the coast of Malindi. US-based Apache Corp. owns 50% the well in a consortium with a handful of other companies. They’re still digging, hoping that going deeper will reveal the oil.
The bigger picture, however, is that only the surface has been scratched in terms of exploration. The East Africa Rift is believed to hold over 70 billion barrels of untapped crude oil, while offshore Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique have a joint estimated 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There may be offshore oil, too. The oil discoveries in Kenya so far have been confined to one massive basin, and there are six more.
In addition to the size of the prize here, Kenya is favorable for other reasons as well: It offers relative political stability in the midst of a rather restless Africa; it offers attractive fiscal terms; it offers easy access to export markets; and it has an appetite for infrastructure that is hard to beat.
While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable, as for 2012, Kenya remains THE number one East African play in terms of potential. Next year will give us a better idea of commercial viability. http://oilprice.com/Ener...Gas-Plays-for-2012.html Asante
I discovered a bit late a correlation on MSCI KE index & FTSE KE indices on where the money flow is being bet to go to in EA. Thus the selective crazy rally of some stocks despite the nasty macros that messed up the EA econs last year & spilling over into 2012. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Wise investor vote for any other person except uhuru & ruto they will doom the economy. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/16/2011 Posts: 196 Location: united states of africa
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mlennyma wrote:Wise investor vote for any other person except uhuru & ruto they will doom the economy. And what about those investors like me who are anticipating that you people as usual vote for Uhuru and/or Ruto so that we can scoop stocks at NSE for nothing then hold for lets say three years? Energy.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/16/2011 Posts: 196 Location: united states of africa
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Nabwire wrote:OK I understand that the governments responsibility is to its people, but at the same time as an investor, you invest with intentions of making money, would you guys really put in your money knowing that 87% doesnt belong to the company?? Plus 40% tax rate? Doesnt make sense, I was having this conversation with someone who said that for this exact reason, he cannot invest in oil stocks in developing countries. He basically told me I'll lose money if I invest in AOIFF, and the minute GoK starts making such demands I'll know he was right. No one wants to put their money where over three quarters is taken off from the start, you havent even paid employees or set aside funds for prospecting. Now im really worried with this AOIFF stock. Just chill. AOIFF will bounce back. People have been selling the stock because of the tax season and also the fiscal cliff but if the Republicans and Democrats get their house in order which i believe they will, then things will go back to normal. Am waiting for it to go all the way to 4$. And as for the demands that gok was proposing, it will only affect new entrants to the exploration business in Kenya. Energy.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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I'm curious tho', other than the bull run in the NSE, how else can one benefit early from these new oil/gas discoveries?
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/12/2012 Posts: 92
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there is a good chance oil will below $50 in a decade when fracking comes into full force. In the 1970 oil touched $100 and by 1999 it touched $10!!! this commodity boom will come to an end.
the next crazy bull market will be led by cheap oil and natgas as the chief energy sources.
by then maybe we wont even be able to give ours for free.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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sentinel prime wrote:there is a good chance oil will below $50 in a decade when fracking comes into full force. In the 1970 oil touched $100 and by 1999 it touched $10!!! this commodity boom will come to an end.
the next crazy bull market will be led by cheap oil and natgas as the chief energy sources.
by then maybe we wont even be able to give ours for free. No chance of that happening. The Brics are nearing boiling point and Africa is just taking off. The appetite for oil will continue to rise in the developing world even if the developed world's consumption shrinks. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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mlennyma wrote:Wise investor vote for any other person except uhuru & ruto they will doom the economy. Ditto. If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/12/2012 Posts: 92
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the USA will be energy dependent in 10 yrs and one of the largest exporters of oil together with Canada and Norway.
opec will have no much power to control prices. middle eastern countries will go into deep economic decline.
though bric countries will continue to support demand, oil will no longer be the prime source of energy, natural gas is expected to supplant oil as the chief energy resource of the next century.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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sentinel prime wrote:the USA will be energy dependent in 10 yrs and one of the largest exporters of oil together with Canada and Norway.
opec will have no much power to control prices. middle eastern countries will go into deep economic decline.
though bric countries will continue to support demand, oil will no longer be the prime source of energy, natural gas is expected to supplant oil as the chief energy resource of the next century. Even experts in the economy and oil industry doubt that study that u just qouted. Another thing. The US has already recognized that China and Asia in gen will be the next heavy weights. The future is interesting. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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