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Safaricom HY2013 Profit before tax up 113%
Mukiri
#161 Posted : Monday, November 26, 2012 11:56:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
This counter has too many hatersSad People down on their knees day and night!

The next 2 to 3 days will be crucial. Thing is, somebody somewhere knows something. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a fall in price but an increase in purchases.

Proverbs 19:21
mwekez@ji
#162 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 5:25:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
FACT: Safaricom biggest loser as CCK cuts termination rate Thats the reason they were opposing it!
hisah
#163 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 7:14:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Facts
- MTR slashed by 34% - no more price wars to come as confirmed by the rest. Yu mobile considering call rates hike.
- Mpesa tariffs hiked.
- Roaming tariffs to be hiked soon.
- Safaricom to fully control mpesa in 18 - 24 months time.
- Special trade agreement between KE & Ethiopia signed last week - banks not part of the deal. EABL & Safcom immediately see shares demand.
- Mpesa to offer microfinance lending finally - mpesa bank - a candy stick this, one year later it will be clear.
- Treasury thinking of introducing mobile money excise duty.
- The share price has plunged hard on two occassions - Sept 2008 & Aug 2010 - both were announcements of shocking call rate cuts by the competition - price wars.

After checking all the facts my biggest concern is mobile money duty. That will negatively impact mpesa momentum as well as the other telcos mobile money i.e. the entire mobile money field, which the banks are now part of...

My price range still remains 4.50 - 5.20 till March 2013 unless that duty is effected.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mlennyma
#164 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 8:10:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Can safcom start writing refund cheques to other operators from its 1H Profit,then come next financial year announce profit dip.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
obiero
#165 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 8:20:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,555
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Can safcom start writing refund cheques to other operators from its 1H Profit,then come next financial year announce profit dip.

haha. that is a possibility. i find it strange that people are salivating over Ethiopia while Safaricom has to incur massive greenfield operational costs were it to consider entering that market

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#166 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 9:58:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
obiero wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Can safcom start writing refund cheques to other operators from its 1H Profit,then come next financial year announce profit dip.

haha. that is a possibility. i find it strange that people are salivating over Ethiopia while Safaricom has to incur massive greenfield operational costs were it to consider entering that market

In the meantime, I have my bids sub 5!
Thanks to the MTR,i have an opportunity to make my 3rd buy sell trade in "Thanksgiving November" Applause Laughing out loudly
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#167 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 10:14:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Panic button has gone off!
@SufficientlyP
hisah
#168 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 10:20:13 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Panic button has gone off!

Day low of 4.90. No panic yet. If it closes @4 for the week, then panic central it is.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
dunkang
#169 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 10:34:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Mukiri wrote:
This counter has too many hatersSad People down on their knees day and night!

The next 2 to 3 days will be crucial. Thing is, somebody somewhere knows something. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a fall in price but an increase in purchases.


u were right. Very very right. This happens every monday morning, guys looking for entry point
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Bettertry
#170 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 11:26:30 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/19/2010
Posts: 237
Location: Republic of Graham & Doddsville
I won't try to spent time predicting Mr Market's mood swings on this counter. But the MTR cut was bound to happen... only qns was WHEN will it happen??? But for the green elephant shareholder I guess 2 qns should b straining for an answer as a result of this action:-

1. Did the firm solely, or at least to a large extent, heavily rely on revenues from MTR and how much of it formed part of its revenues???

2. Has the firm also lost its shine of being innovative & creative???
We Will Either Find a Way or Create One - HANNIBAL
Jamani
#171 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 11:33:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Mukiri wrote:
This counter has too many hatersSad People down on their knees day and night!



sky5
#172 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 11:45:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/7/2010
Posts: 282
Location: Nairobi
Safcom earned about 4B out of 107B from MTR. What impact will a 34%MTR reduction have?

What if other operators lower offnet call tarriffs? Safcom will surely benefit. There shouldn't be any panic on this share!
Jamani
#173 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 12:10:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
sky5 wrote:
Safcom earned about 4B out of 107B from MTR. What impact will a 34%MTR reduction have?



Historical happenings, changes and introduction of new services/rules to curtail safcom have never worked, safccom has always emerged the winner....

We have argued here before about sustainability and economic sense to the companies, govt and rollout of investment on new technologies due price wars, today losers or rather loosing companies have accepted that Kenya is not India and are looking forward to increase their prices.

MTR is a breather for them not to shutdown their operations as they threatened but it is not their solution, Safcom will still win this one, (un)fortunately they have nothing else to throw at safcom. They now have to prove themselves, the field is level.
dunkang
#174 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 12:59:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
dunkang wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
This counter has too many hatersSad People down on their knees day and night!

The next 2 to 3 days will be crucial. Thing is, somebody somewhere knows something. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a fall in price but an increase in purchases.


u were right. Very very right. This happens every monday morning, guys looking for entry point


now look at the volumes. 61 million shares already traded upto now. Demand still higher than supply, yet some wazuans are waiting this thing at 2.30/-.
Wajinga ndio waliwao. This is what is called share market price manipulation.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Mucene
#175 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 1:08:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/4/2012
Posts: 155
Location: Kenya
M-Shwari another revolutionary product or is it a replacement of M-Kesho http://www.businessdaily...0/-/kkxxo2z/-/index.html
If you don't want to go to plan B have a good plan A.
VituVingiSana
#176 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 1:34:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,126
Location: Nairobi
sky5 wrote:
Safcom earned about 4B out of 107B from MTR. What impact will a 34%MTR reduction have?

What if other operators lower offnet call tarriffs? Safcom will surely benefit. There shouldn't be any panic on this share!
Is the 4Bn the MTR revenue or is it the profit? MTR's margins are very high so a 50% P&L effect can be huge...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#177 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 4:24:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VWAP @5/- Large volume day with 76M shares traded with a turnover of 383M. Foreign trade turnover ended net buy (374M vs 321M). This week will confirm if accumulation trade or distribution trade will win. If a win 5/- handle will be defended.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#178 Posted : Tuesday, November 27, 2012 4:41:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
http://reut.rs/UWCqhL

Quote:
"We're very keen to punish any uncompetitive behaviours. Any competitors that think they can use this to undercut others will be punished," he told a news conference.

India's Bharti Airtel triggered a price war in 2010 when its Kenyan unit slashed tariffs by more than half to entice users from market leader Safaricom.

An executive at a telecoms company who did not wish to be named told Reuters operators could increase revenues if none of them initiated a price cut competition.


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#179 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 12:08:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Safaricom is officially back on safariDrool
Trading at 5.05!Applause
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#180 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 12:11:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Bids at 5bob are at 12.997M! Total demand at 23.157M.
Gone with the windsmile
@SufficientlyP
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