Facts
- MTR slashed by 34% - no more price wars to come as confirmed by the rest. Yu mobile considering call rates hike.
- Mpesa tariffs hiked.
- Roaming tariffs to be hiked soon.
- Safaricom to fully control mpesa in 18 - 24 months time.
- Special trade agreement between KE & Ethiopia signed last week - banks not part of the deal. EABL & Safcom immediately see shares demand.
- Mpesa to offer microfinance lending finally - mpesa bank - a candy stick this, one year later it will be clear.
- Treasury thinking of introducing mobile money excise duty.
- The share price has plunged hard on two occassions - Sept 2008 & Aug 2010 - both were announcements of shocking call rate cuts by the competition - price wars.
After checking all the facts my biggest concern is mobile money duty. That will negatively impact mpesa momentum as well as the other telcos mobile money i.e. the entire mobile money field, which the banks are now part of...
My price range still remains 4.50 - 5.20 till March 2013 unless that duty is effected.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!